Hello, I've been looking for the link, but I can't find it.Does anyone have a link to follow Yellen's speech that starts in 16 minutes?
Hello, I've been looking for the link, but I can't find it.Does anyone have a link to follow Yellen's speech that starts in 16 minutes?
Following the ECB's interest rate announcement, the EURUSD exhibited volatile price action, presenting potential profit opportunities on both the bullish and bearish sides. Initially, the pair saw a bullish surge, climbing from a low of 1.07907 to a peak of 1.08537, resulting in a movement of approximately $630 USD. However, EURUSD later transitioned into a bearish trend, dropping sharply to a low of 1.07657. This bearish move not only surpassed the initial low recorded during the news release but also offered a larger profit potential of $880 USD.
In the short term, the rate cut and dovish tone were expected to have a negative impact on the Euro, potentially leading to weakness in EUR/USD. The medium-term outlook, however, was more uncertain. While fiscal stimulus and the end of the ECB’s rate-cutting cycle could have supported the Euro, rising bond yields and slower growth projections might have limited potential gains. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's policy was a key factor in determining the future direction of EUR/USD. In summary, the ECB's decision was likely to weigh on the Euro in the short term, while the medium-term impact depended on fiscal developments in Europe, bond yield dynamics, and the Fed's policy stance.
Gold price climbed beyond $2,900, recovering from Monday's drop to a one-week low, as concerns about the economic impact of US trade tariffs and ongoing geopolitical risks persisted. US Treasury yields remained depressed, supporting the non-yielding Gold. Traders are cautious ahead of upcoming US inflation data, including CPI and PPI releases, which are expected to influence the US Dollar and Gold’s near-term direction. Additionally, today’s JOLTS data will be closely watched for further insights into the US labor market, which will contribute to market sentiment amid the geopolitical uncertainties. Starting from Monday’s high of 2918.21, XAU/USD experienced a bearish decline, dropping to a low of 2880.29, a movement of 3,792 ticks. However, by Tuesday, XAU/USD transitioned into a bullish climb, currently trading at 2914.74, recovering 3,445 ticks.
Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
Important Announcements to Watch (11th–14th March 2025):
11th March 2025
2:00 PM GMT USD: JOLTS Job Openings
Expected: 7.65M | Previous: 7.60M
12th March 2025
12:30 PM GMT USD: Core CPI (Month-over-Month)
Expected: 0.3% | Previous: 0.4%
12:30 PM GMT USD: CPI (Month-over-Month)
Expected: 0.3% | Previous: 0.5%
12:30 PM GMT USD: CPI (Year-over-Year)
Expected: 2.9% | Previous: 3.0%
1:45 PM GMT CAD: Overnight Rate
Expected: 2.75% | Previous: 3.00%
13th March 2025
12:30 PM GMT USD: Core PPI (Month-over-Month)
Expected: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
12:30 PM GMT USD: PPI (Month-over-Month)
Expected: 0.3% | Previous: 0.4%
12:30 PM GMT USD: Unemployment Claims
Expected 226K | Previous 221K
14th March 2025
7:00 AM GMTGBP: GDP (Month-over-Month)
Expected: 0.1% | Previous: 0.4%
2:00 PM GMT USD: Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment
Expected: 63.4 | Previous: 64.7
2:00 PM GMT USD: Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations
Previous: 4.3%
17.03.2025
Next Monday’s High Impact news release will include news from China and the US:
• Unemployment Rate
• Retail Sales YoY
• Industrial Production YoY
• NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
• Retail Sales YoY
• Retail Sales MoM
CNH - Unemployment Rate, Retail Sales YoY &
Industrial Production YoY
Previous Announcement Release Outcome and impact on CNH:
The release on 17th January showed stronger-than-expected Chinese industrial production (+6.2% YoY) and retail sales (+3.7% YoY), which bolstered the CNH and drove the USDCNH lower. However, a rise in China’s unemployment rate (5.1%) weakened confidence, leading to a USDCNH rebound as the CNH lost momentum. Later, following weak U.S. Building Permits data (-0.6%), the USD softened, allowing the CNH to regain strength, which pushed the USDCNH down again.
Profit Case Study:
Below is a study of a potential profit aligned with the chart analysis provided with this report.
To simplify the analysis, I’m presenting this study based on a trading account with a 1:300 Leverage, assuming that the Trade Size is 1 standard lot, which means that the Margin Requirement would be $333.33
If you entered a buy/sell position on USDCNH at 7.33655 (A) and closed at the highest point reached, 7.35781 (B), the potential profit or loss could have been around $237 USD.
If you entered a sell/buy position on USDCNH at 7.35781 (B) following the U.S. building permits release and closed at the lowest point of 7.33289 (C), the potential profit or loss would have been approximately $338.69.
USD - Retail Sales MoM & Retail Sales YoY
Previous Announcement Release Outcome and impact on USD:
The US Retail Sales data for January 2025 showed a 0.9% month-over-month contraction, much worse than the expected 0.1% decline, suggesting weakened consumer spending due to factors like severe weather and wildfires. This negative result would likely have weighed on the USD, as it indicates reduced economic momentum. However, the year-over-year growth of 4.2% provided some support, reflecting ongoing retail activity compared to last year. Despite the annual increase, the weaker monthly performance likely dominated market sentiment, leading to concerns about economic slowdowns and a bearish outlook for the USD in the short term.
Profit Case Study:
Below is a study of a potential profit aligned with the chart analysis provided with this report.
To simplify the analysis, I’m presenting this study based on a trading account with a 1:300 Leverage, assuming that the Trade Size is 1 standard lot, which means that the Margin Requirement would be $349.41
Opening a Buy/Sell position on EURUSD at 1.04824 (A) and closing at 1.05142 (B) could have yielded a potential profit or loss of around $318 USD for the day.
USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index
Previous Announcement Release Outcome and impact on USD:
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index surged by 18.3 points to +5.7 in February 2025, significantly exceeding expectations of -1 and indicating a slight rebound in business activity across New York State. New orders and shipments experienced moderate growth, while employment levels declined. Supply chain challenges persisted, with delivery times lengthening slightly and supply availability decreasing marginally. Input costs rose at their fastest pace in nearly two years, leading to higher selling prices. Despite the improvement in current conditions, business optimism for the future dropped significantly, although firms expected conditions to improve over the next six months. The data presented a mixed outlook for the US dollar, with short-term resilience offset by concerns over inflation and weakening confidence.
Below is a study of a potential profit aligned with the chart analysis provided with this report.
To simplify the analysis, I’m presenting this study based on a trading account with a 1:300 Leverage, assuming that the Trade Size is 1 standard lot, which means that the Margin Requirement would be $419.79
Entering a Buy/Sell position on GBPUSD at 1.25938 (A) and closing at 1.26209 (B) could have yielded a potential profit or loss of approximately $271 USD by the end of the day.
18th March 2025
Key high-impact news releases to monitor on Tuesday include significant economic data and major announcements that could influence market movements.
• 10:00 AM GMT EUR: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
Expected: 32 | Previous: 26
• 12:30 PM GMT USD: Housing Starts MoM
Expected: -1.9% | Previous: -9.8%
• 12:30 PM GMT USD: Building Permits MoM Prel
Expected: -0.2% | Previous: -0.6%
• 12:30 PM GMT CAD: Core Inflation Rate MoM
Expected: 0.2% | Previous: 0.4%
• 12:30 PM GMT CAD: Core Inflation Rate YoY
Expected: 2.2% | Previous: 2.1%
12:30 PM GMT CAD: Inflation Rate YoY
Expected: 2.2% | Previous: 1.9%
• 12:30 PM GMT CAD: Inflation Rate MoM
Expected: 0.6% | Previous: 0.1%
• 13:15 PM GMT USD: Industrial Production MoM
Expected: 0.4% | Previous: 0.5%
23:50 PM GMT JPY: Exports YoY
Expected: 10.5% | 7.3% Previous: 7.2%
• 23:50 PM GMT JPY: Balance of Trade
Expected: -¥600B| Previous: ¥2.759
• 23:50 PM GMT JPY: Imports YoY
Expected: 0.5% | Previous: 16.2%
23:50 PM GMT JPY: Machinery Orders YoY
Expected: 6.6% | Previous: 4.3%
• 23:50 PM GMT JPY: Machinery Orders MoM
Expected: -0.2% | Previous: -1.2%
Forex Market Overview: Volatility Driven by Trade Tensions and Economic Data (March 10–14, 2025):
The forex market saw sharp moves as trade tensions escalated and key data influenced sentiment. The USD weakened after President Trump doubled tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, fueling recession fears. U.S. CPI rose 0.2% in February, easing pressure on the Fed to hike rates further. The GBP strengthened against the USD, rising from 1.2875 to 1.2943, supported by the UK’s decision not to impose retaliatory tariffs, which boosted investor confidence. The AUD held above 0.6300, supported by a mild risk-on mood. USD/JPY dropped to 146.55 midweek, then rebounded to 148.63, driven by shifting risk appetite and rising U.S. yields. Overall, geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty dominated market direction.
18.03.2025?
Next Tuesday’s High Impact news release will include news from Europe, US and Canada:
Zew Economic Calendar (EUR)
Housing Starts MoM (USD)
Building Permits MoM (USD)
Core Inflation Rate MoM (CAD)
Core Inflation rate YoY (CAD)
Inflation Rate MoM (CAD)
Inflation Rate MoM (CAD)
Industrial Production (USD)
EUR - ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
Previous Announcement Release Outcome and impact on EUR:
The German ZEW Economic Sentiment for 18th February 2025 initially supported the EUR due to rising optimism about Germany’s economic outlook. However, the EURUSD turned bearish as stronger-than-expected US data, like the Empire State Manufacturing Index, and rising expectations of tighter Fed policy bolstered the USD. Despite the positive ZEW release, investor caution over Eurozone challenges, including low inflation and sluggish growth, weighed on the EUR. Additionally, Canada’s inflation data, though modest, shifted focus to global inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations of tighter US monetary policy and further supporting the USD, which pushed the EURUSD lower.
Profit Case Study:
Below is a study of a potential profit aligned with the chart analysis provided with this report.
To simplify the analysis, I’m presenting this study based on a trading account with a 1:300 Leverage, assuming that the Trade Size is 1 standard lot, which means that the Margin Requirement would be $348.80
If you entered a buy/sell position on EURUSD at 1.04641 (A) and closed at point (B) 1.04695, the potential profit or loss could have been around $54 USD.
If you entered a sell/buy position on EURUSD at 1.04695 (B) and closed at the lowest point of 1.04351 (C), the potential profit or loss would have been approximately $344.
The next high-impact news release for the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is set for Tuesday at 10:00 AM GMT.
Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
USD – Housing Starts and Building Permits
Previous Announcement Release Outcome and impact on USD:
On 19th February 2025, U.S. housing data revealed a slowdown, with housing starts falling by 9.8% in January, signaling a weaker housing market, while building permits showed little momentum. This downturn was attributed to factors like higher mortgage rates, concerns over unsold homes, and potential cost increases due to tariffs. The Federal Reserve also reviewed its monetary policy framework, focusing on its 2% inflation target and the need for a resilient policy in uncertain economic conditions. The Fed's discussions hinted at no immediate rate hikes, contributing to a cautious outlook. Overall, these factors suggested slower economic growth, leading to a weaker USD, as the market anticipated a less aggressive stance from the Fed and muted activity in the housing sector.
Profit Case Study:
Below is a study of a potential profit aligned with the chart analysis provided with this report.
This study assumes a trading account with 1:300 leverage and a trade size of 1 standard lot for USDJPY, resulting in a margin requirement of $333.33.
If you entered a buy/sell position on USDJPY at 151.830 (A) and closed at point (B) 151.830, the potential profit or loss could have been around $384.64.
The next high-impact news release for the Building Permits and Housing Starts is set for Tuesday at 12:30 PM GMT.
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Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
CAD - Canada's Inflation Rate
Previous Announcement Release Outcome and impact on CAD:
?
In January 2025, Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 1.9%, up from 1.8% in December, mainly due to higher energy prices, including gasoline and natural gas. The temporary GST/HST tax break continued to reduce prices for certain goods, like food from restaurants and alcoholic beverages. However, core inflation measures also increased, leading to reduced expectations for an interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada. As a result, markets saw a 63% chance that the Bank would pause rate cuts in March, which boosted confidence in the Canadian dollar.
Profit Case Study:
Below is a study of a potential profit aligned with the chart analysis provided with this report.
This study assumes a trading account with 1:300 leverage and a trade size of 1 standard lot for CADCHF, resulting in a margin requirement of $234.53.
If you entered a buy/sell position on CADCHF at 0.63464 (A) and closed at point (B) 0.63722, the potential profit or loss could have been around $286.18.
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The next high-impact news release for Canada's Inflation Rate will be on Tuesday at 12:30 PM GMT.
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Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
USD – Industrial Production MoM
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?Previous Announcement Release Outcome and impact on USD:
In January, U.S. industrial production grew by 0.5% from the previous month, according to the Federal Reserve's report. Manufacturing output saw a slight decline of 0.1% month-over-month but increased by 1.0% annually. Mining output fell by 1.2% month-to-month, though it rose 3.4% year-over-year. The utilities index experienced a significant gain, climbing 7.2% from the prior month and 6.9% from the previous year. Capacity utilization in the industrial sector reached 77.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points from December, but still 1.8 percentage points below the long-term average. Year-over-year, this figure rose by 1.2 percentage points.
This growth in industrial production likely provided positive momentum for the U.S. dollar (USD). Increased production signals a strengthening economy, which can lead to higher interest rate expectations and greater demand for the USD, particularly in global markets where the U.S. currency plays a central role in trade and investment.
Profit Case Study:
Below is a study of a potential profit aligned with the chart analysis provided with this report.
This study assumes a trading account with 1:300 leverage and a trade size of 1 standard lot for GBPUSD, resulting in a margin requirement of $420.54.
If you entered a buy/sell position on GBPUSD at 1.26162 (A) and closed at point (C) 1.25837, the potential profit or loss could have been around $325.
If you entered a buy/sell from point (B) 1.26302 and closed at point (C) 1.25837 the potential profit or loss could have been $465 USD.
The next high-impact news release for Industrial Production MoM release is set for Tuesday at 1:15 PM GMT.
Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
Unfortunately I am unable to share charts for unknown reasons therefore have written everything in detail accoridng to real time charts.
?? Key Economic Events: March 19th – 31st
?? Wednesday, March 19th
???? BOJ Policy Rate: Release time unknown
???? Federal Funds Rate: 6:00 PM GMT
???? GDP q/q: 9:45 PM GMT
?? Thursday, March 20th
???? Employment Change & Unemployment Rate: 12:30 AM GMT
???? Claimant Count Change: 7:00 AM GMT
???? SNB Policy Rate: 8:30 AM GMT
???? Official Bank Rate: 12:00 PM GMT
???? Unemployment Claims: 12:30 PM GMT
?? Friday, March 21st
???? Core Retail Sales m/m & Retail Sales m/m: 12:30 PM GMT
?? Monday, March 24th
???? French PMI: 8:15 AM GMT
???? German PMI: 8:30 AM GMT
???? UK PMI: 9:30 AM GMT
???? US PMI: 1:45 PM GMT
?? Wednesday, March 26th
???? Australia CPI YoY: 12:30 AM GMT
???? UK CPI YoY: 7:00 AM GMT
?? Thursday, March 27th
???? Final GDP q/q & Unemployment Claims: 12:30 PM GMT
?? Friday, March 28th
???? Retail Sales m/m: 7:00 AM GMT
???? GDP MoM: 12:30 PM GMT
???? Core PCE Price Index MoM: 12:30 PM GMT
?? Monday, March 31st
???? Manufacturing PMI: 2:30 AM GMT
???? German Prelim CPI m/m: 7:30 AM GMT
Key Economic Events: March 19th – 31st
Wednesday, March 19th
JPY BOJ Policy Rate: Release time unknown
USD Federal Funds Rate: 6:00 PM GMT
NZD GDP q/q: 9:45 PM GMT
Thursday, March 20th
AUD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate: 12:30 AM GMT
GBP Claimant Count Change: 7:00 AM GMT
CHF SNB Policy Rate: 8:30 AM GMT
GBP Official Bank Rate: 12:00 PM GMT
USD Unemployment Claims: 12:30 PM GMT
Friday, March 21st
CAD Core Retail Sales m/m & Retail Sales m/m: 12:30 PM GMT
Monday, March 24th
EUR French PMI: 8:15 AM GMT
EUR German PMI: 8:30 AM GMT
GBP UK PMI: 9:30 AM GMT
USD US PMI: 1:45 PM GMT
Wednesday, March 26th
AUD Australia CPI YoY: 12:30 AM GMT
GBP UK CPI YoY: 7:00 AM GMT
Thursday, March 27th
USD Final GDP q/q & Unemployment Claims: 12:30 PM GMT
Friday, March 28th
GBP Retail Sales m/m: 7:00 AM GMT
CAD GDP MoM: 12:30 PM GMT
USD Core PCE Price Index MoM: 12:30 PM GMT
Monday, March 31st
CNH Manufacturing PMI: 2:30 AM GMT
EUR German Prelim CPI m/m: 7:30 AM GMT
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