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only for the reference~
This really is a egy I purchased from my broker...
Search to sell NZD/USD on staying strength
The NZD/USD (Kiwi) has profited from the highest nominal interest rates among the major traded currency pairs for several decades now, together with benchmark interest rates at 7.25% vs. the 5.25percent Fed Funds rate or the 3.25percent (shortly to be 3.50percent ) ECB base rate. However, the Finance Ministry and the RBNZ have been extremely critical of persistent Kiwi strength. Fin. Min. Cullen and RBNZ Gov. Bollard have indied their preference to the NZD to move lower. The return differential managed to restore demand, although their comments are responsible for its declines in NZD from highs on several occasions.
Fin. Min. Cullen first noted his preference for Kiwi to weaken on Sept. 26 (9/27 in Wellington), sending Kiwi diving by more than 150 points in a matter of hours. Afterward, Kiwi drifted sideways for several weeks until it started to move higher. Again, comments from Fin. Min. Cullen on Oct. 23, implying carry-trade speculation in NZD was exceptionally risky in light of previous history, sent Kiwi down 150 points during the upcoming few days. This move lower broke the long term daily upchannel to find prices recover the trend-channel in days. NZD/USD subsequently went on to earn a little new high at 67.50/55 relative to the former high at 67.20/25. Looking at the full-scale chart below, we can see that a bearish momentum divergence developed following the very first comments in the end of Sept., where MACD readings continued to drop while prices made further gains. The wave looks to get changed lower again in recent times, together with all the key daily upchannel support being broken yet again, MACD resumed its course reduced, along with a double top is currently evident at 0.6720/30. The moving average seems to be providing support for the time being, although the 21-day moving average is behaving as a short-term pivot.
This afternoon egy looks to get brief NZD/USD (currently 0.6605) on staying strength in expectation of a larger move south. The egy looks to sell 50 percent of a brief NZD place at 0.6650, which is just below daily trendline resistance drawn off the highs since 11/3 and currently at 0.6660/70 and falling. Look to sell the remaining 50 percent on further strength to 0.6710 when noticed, which is just below the broken key daily upchannel, currently resistance in 0.6720. If both positions are triggered, the outcome will be a brief position at a mean of 0.6680. A reduction of daily support drawn off recent lows at 0.6570 is likely to find prices move directly lower. If shorts are triggered, look to take profit for 50 percent at 0.6450, only over the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this upmove and 50 percent at 0.6350, only before the 50% Fibonacci retracement in 0.6343. Stop loss on the shorts should be loed in 0.6760, over recent highs, risking 80 points overall. Stops should be corrected lower on a daily close below 0.6560, which will constitute a break of recent trendline support.
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