Thread: outlook for price action

Hi,

lately I've taken to writing a sort of about daily bars and considering the effort that goes into it, I believed it was a shame nobody else got anything out of it. I'm going to post todays illustration to see if folks think that it's utter nonsense or if it gives them something to think about. It features short term as well as long term prognosis and I know very well it is hybris as well as common practice to predict where price will go, but this is something that I strive to learn and master, so I can not really get any sort of negative feedback by posting this, since the simple fact that what I am doing will last would stay unchanged no matter what. So I am also free to discuss without sorrow.

Following is a sample, please don't hesitate to comment on the design as well as the content. I am aiming more towards a critique of the text and the content than hearing contrarian or alternative views(which doesn't mean you can't post those too ). I am very much interested by the Analyst livelihood and a venture into this sort of territory, which is very much intermeshed with the speculative trader.


Edit: I'm on GMT 2 so all analysis is based on my own daily near at midnight that is EST 18:00.

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Outlook out of day's finish analysis, 27th September 2006

USDCHF
Bar: miniature bearish pin bar
Could possible be the end of a corrective wave up and the start of the next larger wave down to 1.2200. 1.2470 would need to hold, under 1.2400 sees battle of 1.2350 and 1.2290-1.2275 support.
Above 1.2475 retest 1.2550, then 1.2600 handle.

EURUSD
Tavern:I4B
Below 1.2660 constitutes a retest of 1.2630 with a greater prospect of breakthrough this time around, rather a move beyond 1.2740 again moves to retest and challenge 1.2830-40
We're currently seeing bulls and bears fighting for control over Euros direction and either of these interim important amounts (1.2660 with continuation to 1.25601.2460 vs 1.2830-1.2940) represents a toggle for a specific range border evaluation of this 500 pip border of 1.2460-1.2940 we have been locked inside of since late April. We closed exactly and this explains the indecision seen in the market, as forces are almost at a balance lest there come a shift of equilibrium.

EURJPY
Tavern: bullish bar
Situation this is similiar to Euro. The range established since August from 147.50 - 150.70 retains and we're currently just a small number of pips above the center and Price Pivot situated near/around 149.00
While over it seem for a retest of 150 and the large, a drop below once again brings 147.70 into view and a break of that could mean a toggle back to 145 or even 140.
Short term: past 149.45 gt;gt; 149.80, then 150 and outside, reduction of 149 spells 148.50 and then lower


GBPUSD
Tavern: malformed bearish bar
Situation is shaky since 1.8880 interim support has held now. Loss sees a retest of 1.8740, below that 1.8625 and past that 1.8555. Should the established base grip and 1.8960 recovered, 1.9000 and a later 1.9080 a retest of this 1.9140 high and outside might return in the picture.
Considering the bearish pub and the violation of trendline a further fall is likely unless dollar sentiment turns bearish again.

USDJPY
Tavern: Bullish
Having escaped the narrow confines of this 116.10-116.60 range, nippy has managed to claw its way back above 117 and today trades near 117.40. As long as 116.60 support/pivot retains, anticipate upside down and a retest of 118, above 118.30 sees a opportunity to revisit 119. Be mindful that this currency is political though influence seems to emerge more from the BOJ and officials than from the USD.
118.70 and 120 are potential fibonacci expansions while former fibonacci retracements and a trendline block the path to 117.70 for today.


AUDUSD
Tavern: snare pub
AUDUSD has once again stubbornly rejected a move under 0.7500. It appears almost as if movements are being prevented by some power that is larger with an wonderful force. The pin is rather small yet, but considering that the time spent at the 0.7480-0.7580 range matters are bound to heat up very soon. Gold back over 600$ will surely have done it's part to reconstruct AUDUSD, so seem to try an escape to the upside with stops at 0.7460, entrance preferably at 0.7500 or even 0.75490. Be nimble however if 0.7550 doesn't give way well things might be coming back fast. Past 0.7580 must have an additional 100 pips in it just as easily as a break of 0.7480.


NZDUSD
Bar: unsuccesful pin pub.
Kiwi has been abused any way after more comments from officials concerning the increase being planned much later than the market had hoped. Trendline resistance turned support things back on the first hit the choice for direction is not made just yet. Bearish pressure from the afternoon before with a bearish outside bar puts bears in the front seat and if 0.6530 and 0.6500 provides way, 0.6430 might be seen real fast. 0.6250s next real region of support under.
A go back over 0.6660 could give 0.6720 and above another appearance.

EURCHF:
Bar: bullish outside pub, kind of.
EURCHF put in a very unconvincing move higher today and just barely exceeded 1.5800, falling short of 1.5820-30, an area of resistance. Failure to climb back over this level could mean a return to 1.5735 and past that 1.5625 and the more important level of support at 1.5500. Over 1.5850 gives way to a renewed attack at 1.5970 and eventually the 1.5600 handle.

I think that this is a great idea. Not only that, but will give you a sense as to the currencies are moving in relation to eachother. GBP and EUR up versus USD, USD/CHF pair down, Usd/Jpy indiion upward, etc.. Good validation. Also, perfect for studying. I wanted to reply so I could follow closely.
Good Trading

I hope you keep up this and post around precisely the exact same time everyday....it's hard to find this type of analysis (at least in my study ) on each pair on the very same websites daily....they often skip (possibly b/c there is nothing more to say), but keeping everything in one thread will make easy reference.

Thanks,
Jim

PS- as far as quality of content...I don't see why your analysis would be any less valuable compared to some of the other materials available to read in cyberspace? Your summaries do involve some type of reference to supports and resistance with a bit of monitoring, does is not? Keep posting...

Hello, just wanted to share my most recent attempt, it more for myself and clinic compared to actual trading, so bear with me and don't take this stuff too severe.
But I am happy to see price development went pretty much near to what I wrote in my last Analysis, at the least for cable, euro and swissy. Professional dollar all the way. Here is the update:

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Weekly Overview:
Following an expected pause in the BOE and also expected hike from the ECB, EURGBP acquired a little boost as interest relations began looking a bit more two-edged, using a hawkish ECB plus a tentative BOE statement.
But even for EURGBP the fantastic turnaround ended up being friday: the significant NFP whopper.
The news itself, a lower than anticipated job figure, first saw a fast decline of the dollar, when suddenly, apparently out of nowhere, matters reversed along with the dollar moved on one of it is larger rampages.
Euro closed 93 pips reduced, Cable 88 reduced and USDCHF sits 83 pips greater, above the 1.2600 handle.

Individual outlooks:

EURUSD
Bar: Bearish pub, shut within reduced third. Aiming at 1.2460 at the very near future.

USDCHF
Bar: Bullish pub, close in top third. Big picture is 1.300 and outside, near term it has to break 1.2750 first.

GBPUSD
Weekly pub: Inside Bar, smallest of 4. Gt;gt; Economy a real break of 1.8630 and any rallies back onto it then.
Daily Bar: Bearish outdoor pub. Close at the lower third, very low indeed. We barely closed on 1.8702, but we could expect to head on to 1.8630 again and towards 1.8555 on a rest of 1.8630. Below this expects 1.8385 and 1.8200-1.8188. Just a critical return over 1.88/1.90 will conserve cable from it is apparently inevitable route of descent.

USDJPY:
Weekly pub: Bullish pub, high close.
Daily pub: Bullish pub, higher close.
This pair has once again shown a fertile ground for the dollar. The Yen, being the dirt in shortage management and the american market because of carry trade, is on a steady decline. Should this weekly and daily near 118.30 hold, recommend buying dips to 118.30, 117.50, below 116.60 revert to bearish again.
Above 119.30 should see a retest of 121.30 highs. Be mindful that this is a crucial level where price could bounce a few times before making it.


EURJPY:
Weekly pub: not a bearish trap pub.
Daily pub: bullish pub, near bar almost identical to bars high. Suggests continuation.
Very undecided picture.
EJ could very well be led back to glory 150, but opinions from worried politicians and MOFs might make this a very ugly pair to trade really.
Reduction of 149 should visit 147.75, which in itself is a good spot to go long . A test and rejection from 149.00 could also provide a good chance to buy back in. Remain cautious around 150.30, prefer selling shirts holding or here longs using a tight stop and anticipate external jawboning and external things.


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indefinitely EJ is lately very much a no transaction for me, by far too unexpected turns and striving hard to return to some semblance of leadership.
EURUSD and USDCHF amounts are pretty plain on the charts and similiar to what I wrote , so rallies to key amounts could provide good places to return into long dollar positions. Nothing is certain yet, but it seems like the dollar is poised for a comeback, for no Fantastic fundamental reason other than to show to the FA folks that they should learn TA, and fast

Wonderful work.

Hope you can keep it moving.

Thank you

I am quite happy to see you men such as the analysis and that I personally am amazed that price behavior was just as expected and predicted in the amounts mentioned in the very first post....all the toggles worked along with the vital levels had corresponding price behavior (pause in the front of it ranging, then immersion and continue to second level).
That is something I personally am very happy to see, since it means my overview is a lot easier compared to my intraday trading
It also means I'm getting a type of a deal on price levels and impliions of price movement....
And also the outlined egic points could have appropriate position trading quite well I believe.

You are on a roll....give us longer!!

Fantastic work! Hope I will see it everyday.

Thoughts
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Weekend is coming and that I just wanted to perhaps give this thread a bit more prominence as I see people constantly asking about the future on a daily basis. I hope I can offer a framework that is good to go out of as I attempt to outline the week.
Not that I am actually worth listening to, as I am not a certified or used Analyst, but hey, most of us love to feed our egos
that I also do not recommend taking my advice, trading off of it or using it obscure your own trading. It has been my own fallacy too many times and destroyed my trading plenty of times as well. Trade autistically, trade dispersed =-RRB-

But about that ego stroking, let's go do this today to get another, shall we?

Originally Posted by ;

FXNOTES at 15. October 2006
EURUSD
If we return back over 1.2640 and manage a close up there appear for a rapid ascent or a possibly fatal loss and return back lower.

We struck 1.2640 into the pip, then moved 114 pips down(a little under the 1.2560 level that was a significant pivot). 100% hit, called 5 times beforehand. Price got rescued with a rising trendline and moved over 1.2560.

Additionally from the 15th:

Originally Posted by ;

Should take quite something to turn things back around, but do not be afraid to adapt to a change in situation.
Upside resistance originally 1.2630, then 1.2680 / 1.2820-40 / 1.2910-40.

Compare with todays 1h service lineup gt;gt;gt; highlighting about 1.2680 res turned service right now. Area around 1.2630-40 was resistance both times.

--

Originally Posted by ;

FXNOTES to get 22.10.2006
The TBH at daily creation suggests a renewed effort at 1.2640 shortly, with a catch at 1.2700 not too far off.

4 days later, here we're Once more, fitting levels.

Only carrying some examplary excerpts, cable has proven to be equally appropriate if read properly.

Not honking my own horn, just heading over comparing and history with chart so I can see where I went wrong and what worked out.
Clearly I was way off on a few things and on some opinion, but the opinion changing levels are what is important. Toggles I like to call them.
Nobody knows where things will go for sure, but the market DOES give clues what is more likely in an IF THEN ELSE case type of way.
That's the artwork of Analysis. (Not that I have mastered it , I am not conceited nor bear illusory beliefs. Nonetheless, it's something I do envy and am trying to get better )



Looking back
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I love doing this and watching things unfold so nicely and that I can see why a few people can really write great outlooks but fail at trading - that the emotion barrier is rather a tough slice of resistance!
Had I simply traded my own plan I'd have made quite a handsome sum.
As it is, the trader component of me appears like a seperate entity entirely - I am sometimes amazed myself how one part of me sees clarity the options before me and yet another is occasionally still a tiny fearful kid accountable for the monster that is the market. Human beings are strange yet fascinating.

Oh and if you would like to understand how I do it James16 team taught me almost everything or instead, it made me realize the things I already knew and solidified them by showing me they were actually valid =-RRB-
I look at the charts, listen to what they tell me and spend a lot of time together. (Sounds like I treat them like kids in a way *smiles softly*)


My thanks to James and all those helping out and working with others in the forum in addition to in the public segment.

My best wishes to you all and the best of luck with your trading!

SL, from your posts I gather this is a beneficial hard work and blessing to you. You have done a good job of writing your ideas down in readily understood outlines. Over time I might think keeping your diary would bring in the pips for you.

Good trading,
Thom

Originally Posted by ;

from post #1: recently I've taken to writing a type of perspective for price action on daily pubs and considering the effort that goes into it, I believed it was a pity nobody else got anything from it. I'm going to post illustration simply to see if folks think it's utter nonsense or if it gives them something to consider. --------- from post # 11:Looking back
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I love doing this and watching things unfold so nicely and that I can see why some folks can really write excellent outlooks but fail in trading - the emotion barrier is quite a challenging piece of resistance! ...