Thread: $ For The Week Of 10/16-With Some Trade Tips

Originally Posted by ;

The initial negative amount was based on reciepts from petrol stations; of course the reciepts werre down, because the price of gasoline has fallen dramatically. See below:

U.S. Economy: Fuel-Price Drop Spurs Consumer Spending (Update4)
From Shobhana Chandra and Joe Richter
Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Lower gasoline prices encouraged Americans to spend more on clothing, furniture and building materials, and propelled consumer confidence to the maximum level in over a year.

The largest decline in gas-station receipts driven overall retail sales down 0.4 percent in September, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Excluding service channels, purchases increased 0.6 per cent, three times the gain in August. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index jumped to 92.3 in October from 85.4 the prior month.

I understand your argument heresales were up 0.6% ex gasoline. But isnt 0.6% poor considering service channels saw the largest decline ever? Shoudnt we see more like 1.5% ex gasoline? If the consumer spent a lot less on gasoline, then why didnt they buy some other shit with that money? They didnt look like they had been in a spending mood, and that's why I say the report is bad even when you take a closer look.

And then my next stage, that economists ought to have been able to forecast the amount more acurately since they knew exactly how much gasoline prices had fallen in sept, what is your response to that?

Oh and btw, Once We hash out the retail sales, then I got some Fantastic nfp arguments for ya

Originally Posted by ;

the reason I am a dollar bull at the first place is that the dollar has been reacting positively to negative news for the past two weeks. That's among the best signs I like to see. Most are claiming that the news was actually great when taking a closer look, but it appears everyone only needs to have a closer look if the market doesnt act like it ought to.

Agree with Merlin here. I've posted some analysis in my fundies thread over a previous period when the USD ignored the economic data. The year was 2003, the data was USD-ve and yet EUR/USD just kept on rallying. Can we be on the other side of that today? Perhaps.

I understand your argument here, yes sales were up 0.6% ex gasoline. But isnt 0.6% poor considering support stations saw the greatest decline ever? Shoudnt we see more like 1.5% ex gasoline? If the customer spent much less on gasoline, then why didnt they buy another shit with that money? They didnt seem like they were in a spending mood, and thats why I say that the report is poor even when you take a closer look.

The customer might have been only gettin over the gasoline sticker shock-but the rate of retail spending increased by 3 days so that it might not be the rate per se but the actual rate of growth that impressed the market.

LOL, no comment about economists' predictions. . .but I can confidently forecast that retail sales and energy prices have a definate reverse relationship. As to the levels. . .that's just another story. I can also confidently say that as prices drop-sales will go up, but I am not claiming any exclusive knowledge there...

If gasoline sales were quantified in gallons rather than $'s, a definate growth could have been seen and this has been made out of a recent reports which show demand for gasoline is truly up.

Retail sales were indeed powerful and the market reacted stongly to the amount. I am anxiously awaiting your further spin about the NFP.

Originally Posted by ;

The consumer might have been only gettin over the gas sticker shock-but the rate of retail spending increased by 3 times so that it may not be the rate per se but the actual rate of increase which impressed the market.

Well I can see that you understand my point here, as your rejoinder is quite feeble (and I mean that in the most respectful manner LOL).

Originally Posted by ;

LOL, no remark about economists' predictions...

the reason that economists should have predicted that the overall drop in retail sales is because oil is one of the most known prices of any other commodity. Should you ever wish to be aware of the price of oil, alls you have ta do is look at the futures market. If you wish to know the price of new pc, well, your options are more restricted, if you know what im saying. That is why I dont except this gasoline spending can be removed to unfurl something positive. We knew that gas went in september, so why would be the actual out of line with the forecast? Because it was expected of course! :

my overall point here is that US data has been bad, yet the dollar is gaining strength . Whereas what we're hearing from you is that the data has really been good, and the dollar is currently behaving so.

Originally Posted by ;

Agree with Merlin here. I've posted some analysis on my fundies thread on a previous period once the USD ignored the economic data. The year was 2003, the data was USD-ve and EUR/USD only kept on rallying. Can we be on the opposite side of the today? Perhaps.

Oh shit, we have abo from the mix today, this should have interesting

abo, my memory is not quite as great as yours, would you mind refreshing us on the 2003 situation? Are you talking about when warren buffet was shorting dollars?

Newstrader, I just saw in the other thread where you stated bloomberg expected 0.4% ex gas to be dollar positive. I didnt understand this, and this may be a winning argument that the retail sales had been really better than expected. Im not convinced, but that really is the best debate I have observed.

Merlin: my general point here is that US data was awful, however the dollar is gaining strength despite this. Whereas what I am hearing from you is that the data has really been great, and the dollar is behaving so.

The retail sales were very strong-they were 3x stonger in Sept afterward in Aug- they will prob grow again if energy stays where it is. The jobs number in Aug was revised to over 188,000. That is a really strong number. Ignore the 50k Sept number-the BLS has stated it is prob all wrong anyway.

Let us examine your NFP arguments, Merlin

Originally Posted by ;

newstrader, I just saw in another thread where you said bloomberg anticipated 0.4% ex gas to be dollar positive. I didnt know this, and this may be a winning argument that the retail sales was indeed better than anticipated. Im not entirely convinced, but that is the best debate I have observed.

To see the Bloomberg report in this issue was very inciteful Merlin.

They concluded that the lowering prices on gas was a beneficial and not a negative. . .they also believe that any change of monetary flow from gasoline to retail is a indication of positive assurance and bullish USD.

Had the customer not transferred flow into the retail sector in relation to the dollar would have tanked.

I cannot remember all the bloomberg analysis stated. . .all I know is that if 1 number came out somewhat better than anticipated it did what bloomberg said. It was Bullish USD.

What it meant to me was this...I would not even consider moving long from the GBP/USD. . .to risky. . .so I waited for a good short move and entered. It worked out great for me. I have to say that with no Bloomberg analysis however...I would have looked at this commerce opportunity completely different and likely dropped.

DC

Originally Posted by ;

abo, my memory isn't quite as great as yours, do you mind refreshing us about the 2003 situation? Are you talking about if warren buffet has been shorting dollars?

Buffet was really shorting the USD at this time, but I think he really increased his short position later on. Anyway, from my fundies thread, here is the relevant bit:

Below is the some of key data for November 2003 along with the percentage EUR/USD proceed on the day. Notice the way the data is USD bullish, yet the USD continued to weaken through the month.

The humorous company began with outright USD bullish payrolls data:

7 Nov - non farm payrolls (consensus 65k, real 125k, EUR/USD daily change 0.36%)
14 Nov - PPI (consensus 0.2%, real 0.8%, EUR/USD daily change 0.54%)
17 Nov - NY Empire manufacturing survey (consensus 28, real 41, EUR/USD daily change 0.16%)
19 Nov - Housing starts (consensus 1850k, real 1960k, EUR/USD daily change 0.25%)
25 Nov - Prel GDP (consensus 7.8%, real 8.2%, EUR/USD daily change 0.17%)
25 Nov - Consumer confidence (consensus 85, real 91.7, EUR/USD daily change 0.17%)
26 Nov - Durable goods (consensus 0.7%, real 3.3%, EUR/USD daily change 1.09%)
26 Nov - Chicago PMI (consensus 56.8, real 64.1, EUR/USD daily change 1.09%)

. . .yet that the USD just kept on falling:

https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/cryp...e-candles.html

What it meant to me was that this...I would not even look at going long in the GBP/USD. . .to risky. . .so I also entered and waited for a move that was short. It worked out great. I have to say that with no Bloomberg analysis however...I'd have looked at the commerce chance entirely different and likely dropped.

DC

Doc-I submitted this many times-with both NFP and Retail Sales. There was enough time to listen to Bloomberg radio or TV, hear the amounts and get their analysis and make a trade that is fantastic. This might not work all of the time, but anyone who isn't utilizing this valuable free resource is losing out on some decent opurtunities. BTW Doc-I've noticed a number of your posts before. What broker are you currently with and are the suits, etc, exercising? Trading 1 or even two minutes following an announcement can be catchy...

Oh and a significant BTW to anyone who may know-if you have some info about how Buffet is investing vis a vis the $, could you please allow me to know? Thanks...