Thread: $ For The Week Of 10/16-With Some Trade Tips

95150newstrader,

Can There Be a Bloomerg radio on the web?
Ie, is your Online Bloomber Radio even precisely same with what you are getting on the radio?

95136

Originally Posted by ;

Buffet was really shorting the USD currently, but I believe he really increased his short position in the future. Anyway, from my fundies thread, here is the important bit:

Below is the a few of important data for November 2003 along with the percent EUR/USD move daily. Notice how the data is USD that is bullish, however the USD continued to weaken through the month.

The funny business began with outright USD bullish payrolls data:

7 Nov - non farm payrolls (consensus 65k, actual 125k, EUR/USD daily shift 0.36%)
14 Nov - PPI (consensus 0.2 percent, actual 0.8 percent, EUR/USD daily shift 0.54%)
17 Nov - NY Empire manufacturing survey (consensus 28, actual 41, EUR/USD daily shift 0.16%)
19 Nov - Housing starts (consensus 1850k, actual 1960k, EUR/USD daily shift 0.25%)
25 Nov - Prel GDP (consensus 7.8 percent, actual 8.2 percent, EUR/USD daily shift 0.17%)
25 Nov - Consumer confidence (consensus 85, actual 91.7, EUR/USD daily shift 0.17%)
26 Nov - efficient products (consensus 0.7 percent, actual 3.3 percent, EUR/USD daily shift 1.09%)
26 Nov - Chicago PMI (consensus 56.8, actual 64.1, EUR/USD daily shift 1.09%)

. . .yet the USD only kept on falling:

https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/gene...ts-wisdom.html

amazing stuff abo!!! Im gunna guess you got this from you connections

yes, I remember this period. This really is before buffet shorted dollars. This really is the period that made him get dollar bearish in the first location! So now I see your point, this really is actually the reverse situation we are in now. And my dollar bullishness grows...

95136

Originally Posted by ;

Let's See your NFP arguments, Merlin

I think I will save this one, because my retail sales argument was better Compared to my NFP, and you have not yet submitted to my retail Revenue argument LOL

at least We All agree to the market Leadership

95136

Originally Posted by ;

Merlin: my general point here is that US information has been bad, yet the dollar is gaining strength . Whereas what I am hearing from you is that the information has been good, and the dollar is behaving accordingly.

The retail sales were very strong-they were 3x stonger in Sept then in Aug- they'll prob grow again if energy stays where it is. The jobs number in Aug was revised to over 188,000. That's a number. Ignore the 50k BLS has stated it is prob all wrong.

Let's read your NFP arguments, Merlin

I simply love it when the government tells us only ignore the amounts due to our flawed methodology. Right. Unemployment, trust me is a problem. Can you say outsourcing?

Originally posted October 11th:

Fundamentally, USD will stay powerful absent inflation, relatively stable/low crude oil/gold, nuclear proliferation by N Korea and the November elections. As unemployment develops, recession becomes a reality and lower interest rates in Q1 2007 (which is the government's 2nd quarter, FY 2007). When the fed lowers rates next year, the dollar will decrease.


Decision: anticipate initial price spikes major economic statements involving USD followed closely by retracements indiing dollar power. USD stays strong through January 2007, at least for 2-3 months .

Just advice; not a recommendation, not a prediction.

95136Originally Posted by
newstrader, I just saw in another thread where you said bloomberg anticipated 0.4% ex gasoline to be dollar positive. I didnt know this, and this may be a winning argument that the retail sales was really better than anticipated. Im not convinced, but that is the best argument I have observed.

Sounds like you have already agreed with me Merlin!

Hey, have we forgotten something here? How are we gonna make some of the?!! of those $ and trade this I'll tell you something; I'm gonna listen closely to the Fed statements tom and once I exchange the PPI on Tues.. .you can bet that the Bloomberg is currently gon t be about!!

95136I have posted previously that money finds it way to higher returns, so, I provide you the US Equities market. The equitiy markets will create a demand for USD and, for the life of me I do not understand why most analyists and traders continue to believe that the USD must remain weak and, the majors should just go in one drection. Those countries' economies have problems when their dollar gets to powerful along with the eb and flow of the markets keep things in balance.

I can record 1000 pros and 1000 cons for bullish or bearish, however in the end I believe that that the price at this time is what the market can bare and you know the rest, the price will go up if there are more buyers and down when there are more sellers. We are along for the ride. I remain a dollar bull.

95136

Originally Posted by ;

Hey, have we forgotten something ? Are we gonna trade this and also make a few of those $'s?!!

I like dollar vs CAD and EUR. Loonie since oil prices are decreasing.

95136

Originally Posted by ;

I've posted previously that money finds it way to higher returns, so, I provide you with the US Equities market. The equitiy markets will create a requirement for USD...

you could be spot on here, this dow rally could be what's driving the dollar right now. Everybody needs dollars to buy stocks! What is it? Nobody actually thinks rates are moving up.

95136btw im looking at this EURUSD chart on the daily, this 1.25 level appears pretty significant. If we break below it can slide hard...

95136XLinvestor, I also agree on the $ along with the equity mkt, but just as a driver. The correlation between stocks and currencies is generally very feeble * but perhaps it may just need to last until EUR/USD pops under 1.25, until the baton is passed on to another motorist, then the drama could unfold as MoneyMa$ter implies. In the same time I believe rate'expectations' are playing a major role here. . .hold on, greater rates expecs and a greater equity mkt in the same time? As growth expectations also have been raised a notch, it can happen, and we're that little bit farther away from the tail risk of a pronounced recession.

MerlinI also love the USD/CAD higher commerce (also bearish oil). I've written a meaty piece on this to the fundies journal thread with plenty of charts.


* if you would like to blow your thoughts plot EUR/GBP against a Euro equity index divided from the UK FTSE (you do so to get a comparative equity performance measure between the two countries). To what you could expect, the correlation is quite powerful but in the direction that is opposite.