Thread: Post your Best Long-Term Stock Chart

Originally Posted by ;

This thread ought to be re-titled Sean's breakout thread because that is all I post recently. Here are two I took. 1 candle finished far. Either way I enjoy both and can buy more of each. Consider REXR I entered previously, so I've 5 REIT names as part of the basket above. MDLZ REXR image image

Liked the 1st chart; basically anything such as flat line based support/resistant levels are my favorite; because the entry/exit points are apparent.

Originally Posted by ;

quote Liked the 1st chart; basically anything such as horizontal line based support/resistant amounts are my favorite; since the entry/exit points are clear.

If you like horizontal support/resistance fractures (and you trade US Stocks), you are likely to like this thread.

I try to only post things I plan on investing in myself and I attempt to indicate down stop-loss points where ill tote the trade if it moves against me. I'll buy put options. Anyhow, welcome to the thread.

Here are a couple for your viewing enjoyment. I have no places in any of them. As you probably know, I'd have a position in FAST and do (not pictured below).

Happy Friday.

Originally Posted by ;

quote If you prefer horizontal support/resistance fractures (and you exchange US Stocks), you're likely to like this thread. I try to post things I plan on investing in my own and I try to indicate points down in which ill bag the trade if it moves against me. Occasionally I'll buy put options. Anyhow, welcome to the thread.

Yes I am and I see, you are really working hard. Best wishes.

Here's a stock that's in the news a lot. And here's a post From Josh Brown that's worth your time to see:
https://thereformedbroker.com/2019/0...-lower-prices/

This is nice marrying of Tech and Fundamental analysis. A company like Tesla will rely on funding/borrowing as it copes with cash burn. If confidence wanes and lenders dry up, times could be a tough when you've got a massive convertible bond coming thanks 1.75yrs.

However on the flip side, let's say a guy like Buffet invests $5bn in preferred stock (totally composed situation, but don't laugh Berkshire or Buffet himself could write this check tomorrow given their own cash position and also how they have done stuff like this together with GS, etc) - What exactly does this do to a stock such as this? Without adequate cash to make it and any debt worries the pressure on the inventory goes off and this thing flies. I understand, this isn't a Buffet style company (this ai not a value inventory ), but let's face it, the man is 88yrs old and also a small liberal. Although he does not look at it as an investment but placing his money where his mouth is about climate change. Perhaps it's not Buffet, maybe it's that the Vision Fund guy, or the guys that own the 1.25% Converts due in March 2021 decide to restructure that or extend the maturity/increase the coupon, lower the strike price? A Trump tweet may take this thing in either direction. I wager DJT adore's the F-the SEC attitude of Elon that he had on display. Elon's a maverick who's not afraid to flirt with bankruptcy -- we understand Trump loves the bankruptcy code!!

My points is that the best Technical Analysis and audio charting will not save you from a fundamental events such as any of those I just described. So Josh is right, this could easily fall to $180 or beyond as its allure dries up (as does financing for a massively cashflow and ROE negative company). But in case that financing is secured I'd wish an escape lever to save myself from an moonshot to $400/share.

But guess what I'm trying to get at here is that strikes to the very heart/core of both TA and whether it works. Does it work? Sure, sometimes. Do events happen that are from the hands of a chartist? Also, Yes. The event described above would blow any chart you can draw however great the risk-reward appears on the chart. But it's also why it's important that you know when you're wrong and have a stop loss if you're able to.

As it relates to Tesla specifically -- I'd keep an open mind, and I'd almost pay too much attention to the converts over the inventory itself. The converts yield 2.59% to worst. Is that the right level for a Single-B rated company that's cashflow negative, negative ROE, etc? I don't care how innovative you're, that's not the yield that is right. Now converts are messy, there is that call option embedded into this thing, so that's definitely worth some thing and there is a lot of smart hedge funds the arb between stock options stock, and shaky and I'm sure playing with. If you convert it, then you would get 2.778 stocks for every $1,000 you own, equating to some $359 price on the inventory. So that the alternative is from the money. You will take your $1,000 at maturity thank you very much (that's a cool $1.5bn which Tesla's gonna cough up to cover that off/refinance it).

I'm rambling here, but you have the idea, investing in the stock and the convert is risky and events such as bankruptcy or massive investments/capital increases and yes, opinion and momentum will move this inventory. Whether you prefer the former or the latter depends upon your position (short or long ). Here's my basic analysis on the inventory and the convert. Happy trading to all!

As a side note, and that I don't wan to trick my hand here, but don't you kinda want an innovator/disruptor for example Musk to succeed? Why shouldn't we root for guys like this? But on the flip side, I do enjoy my shares to have a PE ratio and sensible leverage ratios. And that bit in which you become involved in a stock can lead to bad trading choices.

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