Post your Best Long-Term Stock Chart
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Thread: Post your Best Long-Term Stock Chart

  1. #1
    The original name of this thread was Obvious Stock Trades. And as the aim was to post transactions that were more/less evident that's a pretty arrogant title for a thread. No inventory trade is obvious, except in hindsight. There are two parties to a transaction, a buyer and a seller therefore everytime you make a transaction, somebody else has the opposing perspective.

    In anycase, this thread has basically just morphed to a trading diary in which I post charts I find interesting and post my portfolio from time to time so others can observe that I am eating my own cooking. Others are welcome to share, but If you do not like breakouts or are uncomfortable buying a stock at a new all-time hight, I am guessing you will not find this thread very interesting.

    This thread is basically:The best trades you are seeing at this time. Good risk/reward traders. Preferably long-term transactions (gt;3mo holding period) Preferably weekly charts but I still look at the daily chart too.
    For posterity's sake, here's what the Original Post said...:
    Let us post trades here that are so evident even a cave man could do it.

  2. #2
    Listed below are 5 charts that caught my attention this morning. Given where the market is... EVERYTHING looks like it is breaking out but I like the patterns on the ideal. Less over-extended as a lot of different things I'm seeing out there now:





  3. #3
    A couple of breakouts on the weekly. No position in any at the present time.





  4. #4
    I guess I should go first but I have nothing that qualifies as great enough to post here.... I have had a lot to drink so how about Long CERN Short CPB.

  5. #5
    CERN to me seems like it is going to keep sliding down into some 45 -$50 range...I see it's earnings outside May 5... I see it will ramp up IVR somewhat to the earnings, and that means you may do a cheap calendar, except it's just monthlies, so the Apr expiry alternatives don't get you too close to the 5/5 ER. . .anyway, you can perform the Apr/May $60 calls calendar for 18c....prolly will not get there by Apr, but you are going to be at the $60 long May calls 18c comms from the hole maybe ch a bullish pop on the ER.
    ....in the calendar P/L under I take it into the Apr opex using a 10% iv increase, prolly will not get that far before the week of the ER....


  6. #6
    Idk, perhaps 1/2 the time when I believe something is obvious - it ends up far different than what it seemed - anyway, something fairly obvious to me is the impending volatility inducing event which is the Brexit referendum on 6/23. Actually, I believe volatility will start ramping up into the Brexit referendum date, prolly per month or more beforehand. The June FOMC (6/15) and also the Brexit referendum are just a week apart. Throw in a US political scene shaping up for Summer volatility (RNC conference mid-July) and it truly looks like a good one to sell in May, go away - so I am looking for stocks to top out by early May. I am buying broad Jun UVXY and VXX call flys of various stripes. Also a variety of other VXX, UVXY, and SVXY spreads that I've shown elsewhere.

  7. #7
    of course, Brexit referendum comes/goes and UK remains in the EU, FTSE will pop, something like EWU calls could be a fantastic bet, will wait to find out if I could get in July $16's for lt;25c, they could easily 10-bag

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    of course, Brexit referendum comes/goes and UK remains in the EU, FTSE will popup,
    also look at the biggest City banks - HSBC, RBS, BCS, etc.....they are grinding but may rally pdq if/when the Brexit referendum fails....

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    of course, Brexit referendum comes/goes and UK remains at the EU, FTSE will pop, something such as EWU calls might be a good wager, will wait to see if I could get in July $16's for lt;25c, they might easily 10-bag image
    I like it. A man at my workplace was touting the anti-Brexit trades. Calls or call spreads EWU could turn out.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    CERN to me looks like it will keep sliding down to a $45-$50 range...I find it has earnings out May 5... I find it will ramp up IVR a bit to the earnings, so that you may do a cheap calendar, except it has only monthlies, or so the Apr expiry alternatives don't get you too close to the 5/5 ER. . .anyway, you can perform the Apr/May $60 calls for calendar for 18c....prolly won't get there by Apr, but you'll be in the $60 extended May calls 18c comms in the hole maybe ch a bullish pop onto the ER. ....in the calendar P/L under I take it to the Apr opex using a 10%...
    I was thinking about CERN a bit more long-term. The company is in a growth part of the healthcare biz and is trading at probably its lowest forwards PE in quite some time. Near-term earnings could shake a little lower as some of the optimism gets rung from the stock, but I enjoy the company longer duration. I would throw in a few more positives. CEO/Founder (who already owns about $1bn of their inventory ) just bought another 400k shares on a month ago. Granted that's not hugely significant since he already possess 22.9m shares, but I enjoy the vote of confidence. Growing Cashflow continues to seem pretty good ($2.9bn earnings in 2013, $3.4bn 2014, $4.4bn this past year, and projections for more than $5bn in 2016).

    From a technical standpoint, I think you wait to see if it retains $50 and can use that as a wonderful place to get long with a fairly slim stop reduction. Or you may give more space to it. But I am thinking more like a year holding stage on that, not a quick hit in the options market (not that I've anything against quick money manufacturers!!) . If anything I would probably be taking a look at call spreads in 2017 (buy the $50 strike, sell the $70 strike).

    EDIT: One drawback I just noticed is that the CEO just announced he's cancer, so that's never good...

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