My experiment hurts my opinion of tunnel/swing methods - Page 3
Page 3 of 733 FirstFirst 123
Results 21 to 29 of 329

Thread: My experiment hurts my opinion of tunnel/swing methods

  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Re: the dollar. Who cares where it belongs... if you follow the trend, it is possible to ride it feels like going. While most of the fundamentalists are about whacky trying to second guess it, you are sitting back thinking, Who cares where it belongs -- I am making stacks of cash even if it crashes...

    People (I am not speaking about you, mind you) who get wrapped up at the, it must turn around! Game are trying to predict.
    Agree totally...

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    You're correct that trend trading at a heavy trend is very profittable. If I recall correclty, vegas stated a couple of days back that the system might not function as well in significant trends. I can understand this because he and I share lots of the very same ideas. I really don't use his system, but I know the concept and the way that it would fail in such a situation. But who's fault is that? Not vegas'. To rely on one system in a shifting market trend is financial suicide. In the minimum, alter the sytem to accommodate to the change rather than abandoning it at the first hint of failure.
    Vegas system is based on the price always coming back the mean... This is precisely why his system will work in almost any major market since the machine is based around PRICE nothing over that. It works better in some markets than others, things like OJ or Electricity work flawlessly since the factors surrounding the commodity have an effect on his or her system. IE when the price of Orange Juice becomes too costly, people switch to apple juice. So the price in essence is tagged to the mean in various ways, perfect for his or her system. A platform and egy ought to be based on functioning in all markets along with you eduion. I think that fibs and fad trading both have merits and use both of these on a daily basis and work very well and are profitable. The important thing that a lot of people forget when they're fad trading in Currency Market is that they base it on a daily range forgetting the people that own the market do not trade that manner. Bank traders are trading on a intraday basis, so you trend trading platform needs to be based on that. Too beat your enemy you first must think like him The best way to concentrate on isn't if Vegas system works or not at the present market, but that fact that it is a well thought through,plausible structured approach to trading which consistantly derives profits.

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    That isn't how the market works all the time. The majority of folks will tell you the market ranges someplace like 80% of the time. Therefore, when the market is ranging, your fashion following system will require it at the behind while Vegas' prospers. Therefore, you've either have to stick with it and choose your drawdown, alter it to reduce drawdown like Mudd suggests, or you'll have to develop a way of determining when we're trending and ranging and trade differently for each state.
    I disagree.... Have a look at the weekly chart on cable over the last 4 decades, the market is always trending. Remember that Currency Market is similar to almost all other markets is that it is actually traded 24 hours per day and concequentally from the very definition a market in a market in a market (individuals trading only the week chart, only the 15 min chart, 1 hour chart etc ) so with this very definition it's a market that's trending within other markets. Just because the specific system you are using says that it not trending does not mean that somewhere within a different time period somebody else isn't investing in a fad. .

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Why is it bad for somebody to switch systems once he has identified an abuse that another system does not make the most of?
    I really don't think it is, I think that it is the mark of a legitimate trader. There are 2 sides to the coin, for somebody starting out, how do they actually know that's has changed and also to use the other system till it was over. For me personally it was the break in the fashion line to the upside down on the cable on the weekly chart, I knew that the market would be moving for long for an adequate amount of time. But that's me in years of expertise, but to the average man with 12 weeks under his belt wouldn't understand. So using 2 different system at different times would end up having the benefits of and loosing faith in the system. It is wise for the new man to stick with his system which for a few weeks or what ever looses him pips but keeps faith in the machine, so that once it's all over his gets back to normal and starts to consistantly make profits .

    My 2 cents worth, hope I haven't upset anyone, wasn't meant to be like that.

    Joyful trading

    Bear

  2. #22
    I understand, if this fits into the subject, but I believe there a general issue with what you may call trading models...

    version 1 goes like strategy your trade and trade you plan and version 2 goes like trade everything you see, not what you believe

    theres some contradicting element here I believe that may lead to a lot of confusion.

    Cause model 1 says basically, make a plan, that's a projection of what a market SHOULD perform (according to technical or fundamental analysis). . .then look if it will act exactly the way it should not and act according to it....

    Model 2 says, dont make any predictions or projections, avoid any kind of bias, dont consider exactly what a market SHOULD do, rather, just see where the market moves and follow. period.

  3. #23
    OK East you asked for it...
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Wow Thom.. .Man, you have a pic of AccreteCamp? I gotta watch it. .

    Regards,
    East
    Hi my EasternBro!

    Here are a few shots of my garden:

    Elk, Deer, and other wildlife year round...
    http://www..com/postimg/camp01.jpg

    Along with a nice quiet river to go kayaking and canoeing in. .
    Http://www..com/postimg/camp02.jpg

    Best time of the season is at first half of October (cuz we do capture 100 inches of rain to maintain all this green!) .

    That is where I go once my transactions are in and my TPs are set, it's a nice place to chill out and be thankful for life and get my mind off the charts.

    : ) Thom

  4. #24
    Wow Thom,

    That's what I'm talking about! Nothing refreshing but viewing green character. .
    Very relaxing WesternBro. .

    Man, I ache for this kind of viewpoints...
    You have seen Fiji's opinion too perfect? I wish I also had a views very similar to yours and Fiji's... However, for now, I will stick with backgrounds. .
    Another part of my dream.

    Thank you bro!

    East

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    OK East you asked for this...
    Hi my EasternBro!

    Here are a few shots of my backyard:

    Elk, Deer, and other wildlife year round...
    http://www.accrete.com/postimg/campaccrete01.jpg

    Along with also a nice quiet river to go kayaking and canoeing in. .
    Http://www.accrete.com/postimg/campaccrete02.jpg

    Best time of the season is at first half of October (cuz we do capture 100 inches of rain to keep all this green!) .

    That is where I go once my trades are in and my TPs are set, it is a nice spot to chill out and be thankful for life and get my thoughts off the charts.

    : ) Thom

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Quoting mrmikal Disliked Why is it bad for someone to switch systems once he's identified an exploitation that another system does not take advantage of?
    Ignored I don't think that it is, I think that it is the sign of a legitimate trader. There are two sides to the coin, for someone starting out, how would they know that is has shifted and to utilize the other system till it was all over. For me it was that the break in the trend line to the upside on the cable on the weekly chart, I knew that the market would be moving for long for an adequate amount of time. But that is me but to the guy with 12 months under his belt wouldn't understand. So using 2 different system at different times would wind up having the advantages of neither and loosing faith in the system. It is better for the new guy to stay with his system that for a few weeks or what looses him pips but retains faith in the machine, so that after it's all over his gets back to normal and starts to consistantly make profits again.

    My two cents worth, hope I have not upset anyone, wasn't meant to be like that.

    Happy trading

    Bear
    Well stated Bear! New traders, having no sense of this market's current condition and also having two strategies, usually wind up wearing a fur coat in summer and a short sleeve shirt in winter and lose faith in the two to give comfort. However, if they start out with only the shirt or only the coat and wear it year round, they know over time that the garment can be trusted in particular occasions. This leads to having the ability to discern the changes in year, and results in having the ability to have both the shirt and the coat and also to understand when to use each.

    This is the reason why I encourage new traders to select 1 system and stay with it until they understand it inside and outside. In season and out of season. I give this recommendation knowing full well that they want more than 1 system, but tempered with the knowledge that starting out using more than 1 system will simply server to increase their confusion.

    You're a pretty wise old bear, you understand that?

    Dial

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    ..This is why I encourage new traders to select 1 system and stick with it until they know it inside and out...
    Dial
    OK Dial, now I am feeling somewhat like a disobediant kid.

    I know that for a newbee this compulsive doodlin' and shifting between systems is unfavorable, just wanted to let you know that I agree w/you on that point for sure. With that in mind I share the following:

    You know I am a compulsive tinkerer...(this Memorial Day weekend marks my 1 yr anniversary in FX) and that I began doodlin' with all the moving average numbers on the Vegas model about 3 or so months after discovering it final summer/fall. Do you think that one person's time period for the inside and outside (not that I ever achieved such wisdom. . .yet) could be another Ah, Ha moment? (do not know if that makes sense).

    My curiosity led me to dig deeper and come to a decision to utilize XYZ moving average all according to my own doodlin'/study, because to my eyes it Fit what I had been seeing in PA over a broad range of time frames and currencies... afterward months following my self discovery, I discovered two trading classes (Woddie and Raghee) had found the beauty of utilizing the exact same XYZ MA! So I can assume that at times what MrMikal might apply to a doodlin' with specific doodlers like myself?? And that this might be a positive thing occasionally since it might lead to a wonderful thing; - )

    end of ramble.

    Cheers,
    Thom

    PS MrMikal and Bear, great posts

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I dont know, if that fits into the subject, but I believe there a general issue with what you can call trading versions...

    version 1 goes like plan your trade and trade you plan and version 2 goes like trade what you find, not what you believe...
    Great post Peter.
    Although my basic model is under means of ridding (if anything any of us generates can be final LOL), this one area you mention previously is creating some profound thought in me as I have been captivated by both camps of thought (Model 1 and Model 2 classes ).

    For example, I recently read B W I L C and'm facinated by lots of the thoughts/concepts shared from the novel, and I am implementing a few of the ideas into my plan. In one place, it fits into the camp especialy with respect to the advantage of knowing analysis. I visit the FF or groups and there's such a bent toward doctrine that is M2.

    Bottom line for me is hope there's a melding of the two out there. . .an M3? Really as I write this paragraph I am reminded that perhaps M3 is what the writer of the read is attempting to get across as being neccesary to trade profitably, but I am still learning the basics on you.

    : )
    Thom

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Again, you're assuming he was really attacking Vegas' system. It's true that VWB is a tunnel-based system. . .and you have every right to come to that conclusion...

    Let us just ask him:

    Mike, are you stating your system is explicitly superior than VWB? And if so, why is it that you believe that? Furthermore, how well does your system manage range-bound markets? Were you really able to become backtest results? Any input you provide would be most helpful. Thank you.
    Damn, I only wrote a veritable Magna Carta response, and it got lost because this site is under par in the way that it handles session cookies and timeouts and things.

    I will write it , but basically I want to apologize for starting this dialogue and not being in it. Thanks to mrmikal for me, and he had been correct that experimentation is what I am about. I live my life.

    I did an experiment, and that I made 800 pips in 3 months. I believe I proved the announcement from the Vegas files that there is nothing stopping the price from getting beyond the extrerme fib amounts. But I am not asserting anythingSo what if I do something one time? That and I concur.

    The way science works is that people report their experiences honestly, and the community report if they get the same outputs from the same input signal.

    Now, on the level of what I do to make money personally in Forex, VWB is the very best. It's the best for me because I am used to it, but it's not for novices. It only works for me because I have learned price action analysis and have a lot of other things in my toolbelt.

    This time I will copy my article to my clipboard so that I won't need to write it from scratch if the host clears the buffer when it asks me for my password. Please, Forex Forum, fix this issue.

  9. #29
    Having had this happen several times on forums once I write a huge ramble copying to the clipboard is a fantastic idea. Somehow it's just not as great the next time

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
This website uses cookies
We use cookies to store session information to facilitate remembering your login information, to allow you to save website preferences, to personalise content and ads, to provide social media features and to analyse our traffic. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners.