Thread: AUDJPY plus EURAUD plus AUDUSD -- (carry plus intraday)

Originally Posted by ;

quote I think it will reemerge once equities flop over. At this time there is no incentive to carry Aussie because their is better yielding assets at the moment. When that happens Aussie should pop hard, but untill then there is no point.

Correct, which will make sense to me.

Bogged down autumn isn't simply because of returns decreasing. It certainly was the alyst for big bets to cause the price to drop.

I believe even more so than the rate decrease, Aussie was perishing to get a technical correction over a 5 year scale.

Even if the RBA didn't cut, it could not have just combined between parity and 1.06 for all ages. Even if policy didn't opportunity between the FED or even the RBA for the next 50 decades, Aussie would have broke down under parity eventually.


Besides, now that Aussie has dropped so much (though I would not consider it economical yet), and equities haven't, equities look far riskier to me personally.

Aside from the fact that the FED and other central banks secretly ( well not so covertly anymore) buy U.S. equities, also that the SP500 grows nearly directly inline with the FEDs balance sheet, I see no reason to buy all time highs on the assumption of a breakout.

I exchange markets back into the range 90 percent of their time, breakouts of the range maybe 10%. I search for weak liquidity in a move (price spikes) then fade them.

Originally Posted by ;

quote Fair enough if you exclude EM FX, and true that carry trade is dead and gone therefore trading is how to make money atm. But there isn't any major now that has some dependence on carry, AUD swaps have now contracted ~150bps in a couple of years and now 22 over NZD R differentials do however thing but that's relatively exogenous from carry and more FI relative performance reflecting varying risks consequently affecting FX.

Are you mostly a investor or trader??


I figure I need to get me a much better broker. I can trade TRY, but maybe not INR, and MXN. Honestly that's where I want to place my money after another discount USD bubble (equities wreck and flight to money 2008 type scenario would be excellent for that, after the FED saves the day, a risk free short on high-tech exotics. .)

Thanks guys for the analysis. Btw how do u guys see for AudJpy for this 2 weeks?

Personally with the strong Yen and Aud due for correction(dont know if) I thought its a better transaction onto a bearish bias, awaiting another 150 to 200 pips drop. But dont like losing everyday to that curiosity.

Look like scalping is a better alternative for this particular pair. Hope to listen to opinions in order for this to enlighten me.

thanks.

Good day traders. AUD/JPY extended from 97,24. First trade of the day with 2/3 (0,6%) of usual risk. Reaction is good. To b/e - SL after 97,50.

Green pips to all!

Originally Posted by ;

quote Are you currently an investor or trader?? I guess I should get me a broker. I can exchange TRY, but not INR, also MXN. Honestly that's where I want to place my money after another discount USD bubble (equities crash and trip to money 2008 type scenario would be ideal for that, once the FED saves the day, a risk free short on high yielding exotics. .)

I'm mainly a bond trader but sometimes fx, definitely not an investor however.

Problem is though if people visit a summer sell-off in stock similar to 2011 then ok the AUD might be down in 0.85 and many exotics are going to be at great value but I certainly wouldn't be buying in a rush, mainly because there could be a very systemic reason and that would make me question if AUD may got to 0.6 or even lower.

Additionally swaps would tighten and so less carry, possibly even under 200bps....

I would, if I were an investor be jumping on HY when we see a stock market crash were 10% could be realistic.

Originally Posted by ;

Great day traders. AUD/JPY extended from 97,24. First trade of the day together with 2/3 (0,6%) of normal risk. Reaction is good. After 97,50 - SL to b/e. Green pips to all!

97,50 reached. In my desk not moving SL to b/e yet.

Originally Posted by ;

quote 97,50 attained. At my desk not moving SL to b/e yet.

AUD/JPY: seems like we have a runner. Triangle formation evolving. 55 pips floating. TP1 is @ ADR, at the area ~ 98,37. TP2 - top TL of this formation.

Originally Posted by ;

quote AUD/JPY: seems like we have a runner. Triangle formation. 55 pips floating. TP1 is @ ADR, in the area. TP2 - upper TL of the formation. picture

From the end of the day end result is 20 pips floating profit. Following a good beginning AUD/JPY bulls lost their power. Moving my SL to 1 as the PA at the moment is not very promising there. Price is sitting on a trend line that unfortunately is crying for a separation south. Do not wish to become a hero - 0 risk mode ON. Fantastic luck today if anybody remains hunting pips. See you through London tomorrow.

Originally Posted by ;

quote I'm mainly a bond trader but occasionally fx, definitely not an investor however. Problem is though if people see a summer sell-off in inventory analogous to 2011 then ok the AUD may be down at 0.85 and lots of exotics will be at great value but I certainly wouldn't be buying in a hurry, largely because there could be an extremely systemic motive and that would make me wonder if AUD may got to 0.6 or lower. Furthermore swaps would tighten and so less carry, maybe even below 200bps.... I would, if I were an investor be leaping on HY when we see a stock market...

concur with that. . I wont just buy a price. I wait for verifiion of a change

who couldn't have called the change in 2009 after the crisis, just based off monthly candles alone (multiple change candles weak liquidity in the down movement = easy brief capitulation)

and the very principle of BUY FEAR and SELL GREED.

And then of course the confidence people had in risk assets after the FED intervened


what about the bond markets do you like? Do you find it easier to be on the right side of the market?

Or are you just in it to get the yields


you know its funny, I use emotion to my benefit now. Before it used to hurt me as a trader. Whenever im fearful of entering a transaction today, I know that means its the right TIME to enter.

Forming a triangle on the AJ. A lot of JPY numbers due out tonight, so perhaps that is going to be the alyst for a breakout above 98.