Hello everybody,
Probably all of you understand the easy egy that has been here introduced in Weekly Scalping thread for over two decades now. The foundation is simple, you start one of 2 positions set at particular time, and which gets struck, will probably be exchanged. Joel Rensink does have an advanced egy called First Strike plus, in which he places orders according to last week's volatility. Because year 2008 has been very kind but also very harsh to this egy and weekly thread went to silence, I took a look and did a egy modifiion newspaper trading for year 2008, so I would like to show you my results. Please be aware, I am only human and I might have made mistakes. I used IBFX chart, because I have good experience with accuracy of their charts.
The basic numbers (30 pip offset, 45SL, 135TP) were chosen after evaluation and statistics I did with hand (I also tried 50/100/300, 50/75/225, 40/80/240, 40/60/180 and 30/60/180).
Allright, here are the rules:
1) I did just EUR/USD
2) beginning line is each Monday 06.00GMT available
3) both buy and sell orders are: 06.00GMT open - 30 PIPS
4) If a single order will get struck, the SL will be 45PIPS.
5) SL for your initial order can also be reverse order = if SL will get struck, we reverse place. The new SL will be 45pips (= original first order). We do so only ONCE (therefore maximum 2 trades each week).
6) TP is ALWAYS 3:1 = 135 pips (3*45).
7) Money management. For the very first order we use 5 percent of equity. For the second order we use 7 percent of equity. Thus all in all, we risk maximum per week 12 percent of equity. If we reach TP with initial order, we have 15%. If we reach TP with second order we've 16percent (7*3-5 = 16 percent ). This is quite aggresive MM, some might consider.I didn't take into consideration, that if target was not attained, place could still be alive and in optimistic (or less negative). Any not-reached target was considered as complete loss. First week begins at 7th of january 2008. I did round the equity success. The equity results are approximative, there are no commissions for trades included I also used precise numbers contemplating zero spread (which each fantastic ECN should get you during active hours anyhow ). They were alltogether 51 trading months (I didnt include the previous one startin 22th of dec. 2008) I did not check more back to 2007. The main reason is easy, I think that market conditions are changing rapidly and the old data do not have that much relevance anymore. 2008 was ideal, lot of fourteen days, lot of powerful trending weeks. Outcomes (30/45/135):
Out of 50 Weeks: 30 positive, 20 negative (60%). Out of 30 positive: 14 initial order hit (47%), 16 second order hit (53 percent ). Total number of transactions: 78.
(p.s. I did some mistakes before, these are the fixed outcomes, sorry for that)
When using DST (using 5.00GMT instead of 6.00GMT during DST):
Out of 50 Weeks: 32 positive, 18 negative (64%)
This was done by hand and my aim here is just to show you, that basic thought of doing one or 2 trades each week beginning on monday can be very profitable, if the parameters are put right. Plus they ought to be adjusted each year. It would be interesting to code an algorithm, which would find the most profitable combination offset, SL, TP and you could also alter the open price (do not forget, I used 06.00GMT monday available ). Additionally checking other pairs would be very intriguing and I'll try to do it in the next days. For now, I hope I gave you something to consider.
Well, life is never ideal, is it? After 2nd manual test, I did find quite a lot errors I did with 30/45/135 and also the results dropped appreciably. I will do some more examination also for greater offset (which basically made most positive-to-negative turns). Please excuse me, I am only human and fairly weary human for now
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