AUDJPY plus EURAUD plus AUDUSD -- (carry plus intraday)

[juanl8980]

This thread is for my favorite carry pairs (liquid pairs not exotics).

-When yen based risk is on, I look for carry trades through the Aussie/Yen (long)
-When dollar based risk is off, I look for carry trades through the Euro/Aussie (brief)
-When dollar based risk is on, I look for carry trades through the Aussie/Dollar (long)


1)This thread is not limited to carry setups only. Please post any setups you see, short or long, on any one of these 3 pairs. Also, not limited to medium term or long-term trading. Day trading and scalping analysis and/or commerce calls are fine.

2) Many of my intraday transactions are accepted on AUDJPY

3) I enjoy AUDJPY the most since it appears to have the most consistent price action characteristics.


Rules

1) anything goes on the weekend

two) during week only charts and related information/news

3) dont be a jackass


I look forward to seeing what you all think of.


May 17 2013

At this time I'm most focused on the way June will play out in AUDJPY. I'm preparing for a big short. When yen pairs finally reunite, AUDJPY will likely find the most retrace (since Aussie is overvalued). Afterward this upward move will finally have some efficacy and when we want to break the highs (because of yen inflation, even despite aussie inflation) of 107.50 or so, it is going to be much easier to do after a 1000 or so pip retrace...


here's a speculative chart for AUDJPY.




https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/attachments/1518487032520684837.jpg

[juanl8980]

hi, interesting thread. Well can you define the time zone? So it is going to allow me to understand which intraday you're trading in.
London and U.S. session. I typically start my day after London lunch, but sometimes will be on for London open


Not precisely certain how much I'll be posting, but I suppose a reasonable amount, though I'm glued to the charts, I'm scalping longer moves today and just taking 3-5 trades a day over about 8-10 hours.


Feel free to post charts on audjpy, euraud, audusd

[juanl8980]

I was thinking of starting and AJ thread, fine. image Yeah there is an AJ thread already but no posts since middle of April


I enjoy your chart, seems more inclined than my situation of breaking to around 103.50/ /104.00 and falling back quite hard.

[sdrant]

Hi, interesting thread. Well can you define the time zone in GMT? So it is going to help me to understand which intraday you're trading in.

[sdrant]

quote London and U.S. session. I typically begin my day following London lunch, but sometimes will be on for London open Not exactly sure how much I'll be posting, but I assume a reasonable amount, even though I am glued to the charts, I am scalping longer moves now and just taking 3-5 trades every day over roughly 8-10 hours. Feel free to find charts on audjpy, euraud, audusd okay good. Well here is my chart. I uploaded in another thread. It's not filled with fibs and marks only revealed exactly what I believe of AU following week. I am still bearish and think that it goes below .97 to next powerful support around .95x I've longed at .974 and currently couple of pips red, I am targeting .977 to exit from current long as I am not sure about following moves and missed my 1st tp of .98. Another intensive sell off may burn my cash. I burned some on NU and AU last week.
https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/attachments/1518487040136696405.jpg

[juanl8980]

Wonderful chart Namitak. I am looking long for following week. If it wants to go down, it probably won't happen until June


edit: sorry I thought that was an AJ chart. Both should be good for longs following week though. Aussie need to see some consolidation and then a relief rally (which I will brief)

[juanl8980]

only a few weekend material... working on scalping m15...

also gives you a glance into the 3 intraday parameters/egies I utilize

actually, keep it simple, stupid. I used to have unbelievable complied parameters and cash management, as well as too many of them, and it only made me freeze up in the period of activity, since I didnt know which one to use (back in autumn 2012)


I have finally settled (I think. .) On good colors because of my charts... frankly this only fits my attention and I can see price action so apparent


here's really a test of 8 hours value of trading in 5x real time speed using just the m15 chart for advice

it took a little under 2 hours of actual time to get this done, and had been trading my normal installments... to near perfection I might add.




Only using a chart, the m15. Unbelievable what simplicity could do for you. And patience



to have the ability to yield 9% in 8 hours using a maximum possible drawdown of 1.5 percent (roughly 4.5% on the day with 3 successive losses)


I strongly recommend practice trading using the backtester, in a higher rate than normal. why? To find out PATIENCE. You are most likely right more frequently than you think but dont give yourself time to allow it to perform.

Also its a fantastic confidence builder for carrying a egy live should you just happen to believe something might work but dont need to forward evaluation it (real time) to find out


I dont really care about the moving averages and bollinger bands, they are only an easy visual reference and confluence for divergences in price action in momentum (which I really define as liquidity drying up. . Even if no strong vendors emerge, if any sellers at all, lack of buyers cause price to fall)
https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/attachments/15184870452110100907.jpg

[ce]

Aud jpy my my bread and butter. Subscribed.

I dont think AUD will recover quick

http://www.smh.com.au/business/dollars-slide-mostly-good-20130517-2js3r.html

could find down it to 70c, and of course stock market around new high.

It's likely banks which need high aud because their debt likely in USD. But then proprty bubble wil burst, so that they must give their greedines.

Next week playing aud from short side

possible goal for current drop = 90 in 3 weeks.

[ce]

EDURAUD will continue higher. Low has not been stamped.

Today you understand my view

[ce]

Sorry, forgot JPY.

Usjy will last higher. Buying next week.

aujy - duno. Break of 100 did not hold. It is also my favourite pair.

[oxtamu3rpks]

aud jpy my bread and butter. Subscribed. I dont think AUD will recover quick http://www.smh.com.au/business/dollars-slide-mostly-good-20130517-2js3r.html could find down it to 70c, and of course stock market around new high. It is likely banks that want high aud as their debt likely in USD. But proprty bubble burst, so they have to give up their greedines. Next week playing aud from brief side possible goal for current drop = 90 in 3 weeks. 3 weeks seems very fast but the PF chart agrees with 90.

https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/attachments/1518487017.jpg

[juanl8980]

aud jpy my bread and butter. Subscribed. I dont believe AUD will recover fast http://www.smh.com.au/business/dollars-slide-mostly-good-20130517-2js3r.html could find down it to 70c, and of course stock market up to new high. It's probably banks that need high aud because their debt likely in USD. But proprty bubble wil burst, so they have to give their greedines. Next week enjoying aud from short side possible goal for current drop = 90 in 3 months. I agree, I dont believe it'll recover until 0.8500 area. . Although 0.9600 maybe will hold up for a few weeks.

70c seems like too much to me for one rate cut though. I can certainly see it happening if we have a major global crash, but I dont believe CBs will allow it take place in this kind of crazy dramatic fashion as it failed in 2008... though they could.

After all, they are the market makers. Anyone who says CB aren't its BS. All CBs are busy in the market via stealth, IE they have another massive thing long or short the market


good analysis that CB needs high AUD, this why I believe it wont fall more than 0.8200 and 0.8500 is fantastic goal for shorts

[juanl8980]

Ironically, Yeah JPY. Usjy will continue higher. Buying next week. aujy - duno. Break of 100 didn't hold. It is also my favourite pair. Hmm interesting, thanks to the view

if JPY pairs persist higher and AUD appears some aid (even 150 pips up) subsequently AJ should test the upper end of the station its in. . Possibly even breakout.

Want to determine north one more time to 102.50/103.50 at which I will likely start building my short position... since AUD continues its downtrend and JPY finally retraces, we SHOULD see a significantly lower aussie yen...

0.9400 I would like to see (AUDJPY)

[juanl8980]

quote 3 weeks sounds really fast but the PF chart agrees with 90. image equal to aussie price that is all about 0.9400

interested, why are you currently using that chart not a spot Foreign Exchange chart?

[oxtamu3rpks]

quote equal to aussie price that is about 0.9400 interested, why are you currently using that chart not a spot forex chart? I was just using stockcharts, I do not know another website with PF.

[nancin0]

Long term bullish sign on EurAud coming out of the weekly Ichimoku cloud.



https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/attachments/1518487049620733605.jpg

[juanl8980]

Long term bullish signal on EurAud coming out of the weekly Ichimoku cloud. picture very nice to see, thanks for posting

[juanl8980]

extended 99.90 AJ


that has been just one hell of a fakeout


extremely dry liquidity = powerful alteration usually



also brief audusd 9755, not looking for much from this brief
https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/attachments/15184870521514568591.jpg

[Paulicroack]

Hi R2R, subscribed. I am looking for a turnaround in EA and AU. I will not be taking any trades in the current instructions.
Cheers.

[ctan.cavernicola]

Hey guys. AUD/JPY - short from 97,42.
Closed at b/e. Decided not to depart through the evening.

[juanl8980]

quote I think it will reemerge once equities flop over. At this time there is no incentive to carry Aussie because their is better yielding assets at the moment. When that happens Aussie should pop hard, but untill then there is no point. Correct, which will make sense to me.

Bogged down autumn isn't simply because of returns decreasing. It certainly was the alyst for big bets to cause the price to drop.

I believe even more so than the rate decrease, Aussie was perishing to get a technical correction over a 5 year scale.

Even if the RBA didn't cut, it could not have just combined between parity and 1.06 for all ages. Even if policy didn't opportunity between the FED or even the RBA for the next 50 decades, Aussie would have broke down under parity eventually.


Besides, now that Aussie has dropped so much (though I would not consider it economical yet), and equities haven't, equities look far riskier to me personally.

Aside from the fact that the FED and other central banks secretly ( well not so covertly anymore) buy U.S. equities, also that the SP500 grows nearly directly inline with the FEDs balance sheet, I see no reason to buy all time highs on the assumption of a breakout.

I exchange markets back into the range 90 percent of their time, breakouts of the range maybe 10%. I search for weak liquidity in a move (price spikes) then fade them.

[juanl8980]

quote Fair enough if you exclude EM FX, and true that carry trade is dead and gone therefore trading is how to make money atm. But there isn't any major now that has some dependence on carry, AUD swaps have now contracted ~150bps in a couple of years and now 22 over NZD R differentials do however thing but that's relatively exogenous from carry and more FI relative performance reflecting varying risks consequently affecting FX.
Are you mostly a investor or trader??


I figure I need to get me a much better broker. I can trade TRY, but maybe not INR, and MXN. Honestly that's where I want to place my money after another discount USD bubble (equities wreck and flight to money 2008 type scenario would be excellent for that, after the FED saves the day, a risk free short on high-tech exotics. .)

[natsalayocm]

Thanks guys for the analysis. Btw how do u guys see for AudJpy for this 2 weeks?

Personally with the strong Yen and Aud due for correction(dont know if) I thought its a better transaction onto a bearish bias, awaiting another 150 to 200 pips drop. But dont like losing everyday to that curiosity.

Look like scalping is a better alternative for this particular pair. Hope to listen to opinions in order for this to enlighten me.

thanks.

[ctan.cavernicola]

Good day traders. AUD/JPY extended from 97,24. First trade of the day with 2/3 (0,6%) of usual risk. Reaction is good. To b/e - SL after 97,50.

Green pips to all!

[tracenport]

quote Are you currently an investor or trader?? I guess I should get me a broker. I can exchange TRY, but not INR, also MXN. Honestly that's where I want to place my money after another discount USD bubble (equities crash and trip to money 2008 type scenario would be ideal for that, once the FED saves the day, a risk free short on high yielding exotics. .) I'm mainly a bond trader but sometimes fx, definitely not an investor however.

Problem is though if people visit a summer sell-off in stock similar to 2011 then ok the AUD might be down in 0.85 and many exotics are going to be at great value but I certainly wouldn't be buying in a rush, mainly because there could be a very systemic reason and that would make me question if AUD may got to 0.6 or even lower.

Additionally swaps would tighten and so less carry, possibly even under 200bps....

I would, if I were an investor be jumping on HY when we see a stock market crash were 10% could be realistic.

[ctan.cavernicola]

Great day traders. AUD/JPY extended from 97,24. First trade of the day together with 2/3 (0,6%) of normal risk. Reaction is good. After 97,50 - SL to b/e. Green pips to all! 97,50 reached. In my desk not moving SL to b/e yet.

[ctan.cavernicola]

quote 97,50 attained. At my desk not moving SL to b/e yet. AUD/JPY: seems like we have a runner. Triangle formation evolving. 55 pips floating. TP1 is @ ADR, at the area ~ 98,37. TP2 - top TL of this formation.
https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/attachments/15184870821325765596.jpg

[ctan.cavernicola]

quote AUD/JPY: seems like we have a runner. Triangle formation. 55 pips floating. TP1 is @ ADR, in the area. TP2 - upper TL of the formation. picture From the end of the day end result is 20 pips floating profit. Following a good beginning AUD/JPY bulls lost their power. Moving my SL to 1 as the PA at the moment is not very promising there. Price is sitting on a trend line that unfortunately is crying for a separation south. Do not wish to become a hero - 0 risk mode ON. Fantastic luck today if anybody remains hunting pips. See you through London tomorrow.

[juanl8980]

quote I'm mainly a bond trader but occasionally fx, definitely not an investor however. Problem is though if people see a summer sell-off in inventory analogous to 2011 then ok the AUD may be down at 0.85 and lots of exotics will be at great value but I certainly wouldn't be buying in a hurry, largely because there could be an extremely systemic motive and that would make me wonder if AUD may got to 0.6 or lower. Furthermore swaps would tighten and so less carry, maybe even below 200bps.... I would, if I were an investor be leaping on HY when we see a stock market... concur with that. . I wont just buy a price. I wait for verifiion of a change

who couldn't have called the change in 2009 after the crisis, just based off monthly candles alone (multiple change candles weak liquidity in the down movement = easy brief capitulation)

and the very principle of BUY FEAR and SELL GREED.

And then of course the confidence people had in risk assets after the FED intervened


what about the bond markets do you like? Do you find it easier to be on the right side of the market?

Or are you just in it to get the yields


you know its funny, I use emotion to my benefit now. Before it used to hurt me as a trader. Whenever im fearful of entering a transaction today, I know that means its the right TIME to enter.

[Remeca.esp]

Forming a triangle on the AJ. A lot of JPY numbers due out tonight, so perhaps that is going to be the alyst for a breakout above 98.

https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/attachments/15184870851259797765.jpg

[natsalayocm]

Hidden divergence on H4, along with a nice 50% retracement, which may play out a nice continuing bearish trend.
https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/attachments/15184870891389316408.jpg

[juanl8980]

quote closed half to 70 pips 97.84 will reload it with TIGHT sl (bonus) if I see an opportunity. This movement is very inefficient, should fall back before stage. 80 pip countertrend go in 15 mins? Weak liquidity, will observe down a wave probably.
Still weak. . Motive is per week candle. Should you have a look at it you can see this week = consolidation

next week = real move probably will occur. . Next week June

not sure if I will be looking short or long... probably short though. But the more I think about it, USDJPY is in 90 percent of situations, the favorite way to play with the YEN, not via the Aussie.

90 percent of movements I see are bigger in the USDJPY than the AUDJPY

along with also the reasons why this is should be evident to some good trader. .

Yen weakness (3nd most liquid currency behind euro) typically represent USD (most liquid) strength... that is AUD bearish

still its a good pair to exchange. I can even decide to stick with just two pairs (for day trades, not carry). These two are fantastic to me this month.

audusd and usdjpy. . Why transaction audjpy?


The sole reason I can see to exchange audjpy (on the short side) is when aussie continues its heavy push, AT THE SAME we eventually see some yen strength. .

Yen strength and aussie weakness simultaneously happens from time to time, but its certainly not the norm....




Edit: fixed a few stupid typos

[juanl8980]

Putting a triangle on the AJ. A lot of JPY numbers due out tonight, so maybe that will be the alyst for a breakout over 98. picture
Potential but looking at weekly candle I believe we just range rest of the week... although that range will include greater than 98. . Yes its possible

[ce]

quote I may even opt to stay with just two pairs (for afternoon transactions, not carry). These two have been wonderful to me this month. audusd and usdjpy. . Why transaction audjpy? The only reason I could see to exchange audjpy (on the brief side) is if aussie continues its hefty push, AT THE SAME we eventually find some yen strength. . Yen strength and aussie weakness concurrently occurs from time to time, but its definitely not the standard.... Edit: fixed a couple of stupid typos on same page I also use only these for shortterm trading, currently in paper mode as dont want to exchange shortterm on the phone - still functioning. Results excellent . Generally speaking I see 10 pips is enough stop, but that really is paper. For actual will increase to 15 to minimise temptation of broker to kick me out, possibly more. Additionally I use strictly limit order for entrance and all of my transactions look like knife ching.

Just out of curiosity, what is your typical initial stop space ?

[juanl8980]

quote exactly the same page here I also use just these for shortterm trading, currently in paper mode as dont want to exchange shortterm on the phone - still functioning. Results excellent . Generally I see 10 pips is stop, but that is paper. For actual will grow to 15 to minimise temptation of broker to kick me out more. I use strictly limit order for entrance and of my trades look like knife ching. Just out of curiosity, what's your initial stop distance that is typical ?
Hey seaman, glad its going well. You should only trade once you feel like trading. Yeah short term over a phone is demanding


tight stop loss entries I will use occasionally. But these tight stop losses are mostly for momentum trades, or any time you're trying to snipe the very high or low of a major degree (using a fantastic risk reward potential). Like sniping a 4 hour or so daily top/bottom (dual top/bottom) using a 10-20 pip stoploss.


I dont mind sharing my risk model and egies


#1 - 10 to 25 pips stop loss, take profit 100% determined upon price action. Generally will take 50% of off the position at a minor amount if PA agreees

maximum risk per day = 50 pips (2-3 losses). Frequently I will allow 10-20% of these scalps run for 50-200 pips, as an incentive

(if an m15 scalp turns in a powerful h4 or daily move, why don't you benefit from this?)
#2 - 20 pip stop loss, take profit is 20 pips.1 reduction per day maximum.
Ill take 15 pips minimal, and not, if price action would like to be stubborn about my TP.
#3 - 30 pip stop loss, 10 pip take profit. 1 trade every day.
Wont settle for less than TP hit, but I will certainly close at BE
#4 - 50 pip stop loss, 25 pip take profit. 1 trade every day maximum, no trades on friday.

Breakeven following 15
#5 - 100 pip stop loss, 50 pip take profit, 1 trade each week. No trades on friday.
Breakeven following 30


in order from highest leverage to cheapest leverage per version
#4, #2, #1,#5,#1




you want to have a guess as to which model is doing best?

I guarantee that I will never completely complete my risk models and egies. I'll always be tweaking them, cutting off inferior egies, adding superior ones. .

[ce]

quote hey seaman, glad its going well. Tight stop loss entries I will use occasionally. But these tight stop losses are mostly for momentum trades, or any time you're trying to snipe the exact high or low of a major degree (with a great risk reward potential). Like sniping a 4 hour or daily top/bottom (double top/bottom) with a 10 pip stop loss. I mind discussing my risk model and egies #1 - 10 to 25 pips stop loss, take profit 100% determined by price action. Generally will take 50 percent of the position off at a minor level if PA agreees maximum... Thanks, really enjoy contribution from a fantastic trader. Ok, just lucky trader, which means you dont have to fight self stuff again

I've working swing version and now want to employ same fundamentals to shortterm trading. Results look good but it's mostly paper at this stage. Funny that I also singled out audusd and usdjpy as the ones to watch for shortterm. For swing trades around 6 ccyies, gold and 3 stock indexes.

Idea of large stops for shortterm trades is new to me. But makes sense.

Greatest doing no 4 ?

[juanl8980]

quote Thank you, really value contribution from a good trader. Ok, just blessed trader, which means you dont have to resist self stuff again I've working swing model and now want to employ same principles to shortterm trading. Results seem good but it's mostly paper at this stage. Funny that I singled out audusd and usdjpy since those to watch for shortterm. For swing transactions around 6 ccyies, gold and silver 3 stock indexes. Idea of big stops for shortterm transactions is new to me. However, makes sense. Best doing no 4 ? Yes quantity 4 is proper. I rarely have a reduction on it

good thing you have a proper model to exchange on. Its likely the most important instrument that a trader can have.




My versions may seem very strange but everybody will have their own unique versions according to how their mind works with the market

for me all these appear to work best but like I said I am continuously changing them, tweaking them slightly. . etc.. .

My big stops for daily trades just works since the goals are so readily reached. And in fact transactions never get close to hitting the stop. Its as if I could've used a 20 pip stop and it might have worked exactly the exact same however, the assurance in utilizing a 50 is completely different.

Actually its not really the ideal approach to exchange however. . Gives me assurance that I will make profit. I have little fear of being stopped outside and convinced target will be reached.

I enjoy take profits by price action but for some egies, fixed is best, especially when I am not able to see market too often. . Or trading from telephone

[tracenport]

quote agree with that. . I wont just buy a price level. I always wait for confirmation of a change who couldn't have called the reversal in 2009 after the crisis, just based off monthly candles alone (multiple reversal candles weak liquidity from the down movement = easy short capitulation) also the very principle of BUY FEAR and SELL GREED. And then of course the confidence people had in risk assets after the FED intervened what about the bond markets do you prefer? Do you find it a lot easier to be on the right side of this market? Or are you just... I do not exchange for the yields (or lack thereof) but I disperse macro and trade swing, Bond trading is perhaps the easiest asset class to do fundamental analysis, technical analysis and while it can be complex to start out with its so easy especially when you get to advanced degree and do not have to consider comparative credit / swaps / Vol skews that are involved with FX

[tracenport]

Thoughts re. Short EURNZD here, Stochs and RSI are great, too at overextension degree, proceed to 23 percent fib to get TP

Second shows NZD vs 1Y forward defined swaps. Short-term undervaluation for some decent arb via forward and spot. All in all, seems like NZD could be a tad bullish over forthcoming few sessions
https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/attachments/1518487092557034783.jpg
https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/attachments/15184870951586337856.jpg

[juanl8980]

quote I don't trade for the returns (or lack thereof) but I disperse trade and macro swing, Bond trading is possibly the simplest asset class to do fundamental analysis, technical analysis and while it can be complex to start with its simple especially when you reach advanced level and don't need to contemplate relative credit / swaps / Vol skews which are involved with FX I figured as much

whatever works correctly?

What bond markets are you into

[oxtamu3rpks]

I was thinking of beginning and AJ thread, nice.

https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/attachments/15184870351553974756.jpg