Theorycrang: how can this egy lose?
Results 1 to 6 of 36

Thread: Theorycrang: how can this egy lose?

  1. #1
    1 thing we could presume about the market: its gonna move, lets say we are at point 0 in the moment we could tell for certain the market is gonna achieve point 30pips or point -30pips .
    So lets make a trade at point 0 lets randomly enter the market with buy (0.01lot) position and wait whats gonna happen.
    Of course the market then proceeds to drop without failure so what we gonna do? When the market is in -10 position we will sell (0.02lots).
    This shall stun the market for a short second but Murphy's law is still in effect so the market will now move to proceed up (we are loosing more out of it going up so it is going to go like that. Nevertheless, when it will return to position 0 we shall buy (0.02 lots).
    We now have 0.03 lots up 0.02 lots down so we've got a net gain when market is shing up and thus it will begin moving again, and again we will sell 0.02lots when its at -10 and again buy 0.02 when its at 0.
    We will troll the market so tough it will eventually give up wanting to screw with us because regardless of which direction it will proceed we shall always be gaining internet profit.
    Eventually market will reach 30 or -30 and we will cash in our orders and regardless of what we will be in profit.

    So how do this go poorly? Can we actually run out of money when we only add 2 into our order dimension for every failure (with martingale we innovate x2 therefore it can stack up pretty quickly ). Lets say we have a 1000$ and we wan na na play 0.01 0.02 lots it would take 50 back and forths to flush us. Is it really possible?? Lets say we have 2000$... The gain might not be big but its 100% gain nevertheless. Basically anytime we open a position we've got 25% chance for 3$ (when -10 is never attained we just get 30 pips together with our initial 0.01 lots and theres 3 ) or 1$ (when -10 is attained and then eventually -30, 50% chance for that)) or 2$ (when -10 is attained after which 30, 25% likelihood )

    Is there a mistake in my reasoning lets say we set up a robot 24/7 on 10 instruments simultaneously lets say it will make on average 1$/5h on every instrument (I''m considering the worst potential outcome whenever cuz Murphy's law). And we still make 2$/h. Lets say we invest 10k into this (1k each tool ) in 208 days we will have 20k therefore we could double our entrances collect free money. I'am sure 48$/day can pay for power bill for a notebook running nonstop.

    So you guys think this is a legit company plan?? Please discuss remarks.

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Good luck for this. However, I think the spread you will pay will have the better of you at some stage.
    Spread does not add up as you will always enter at the same specific point, so in the event that you move 5x 0.02 the spread is going to be the same as if you moved 0.1 right away. Also it does not really matter when you depart either if your spread is really high you can target at 35 or even -35. I still need to work out best time efficient goals anyway.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Something we could assume about the market: its gonna proceed, lets say we are at point 0 at the moment we could tell for sure that the market is gonna achieve stage 30pips or stage -30pips eventually. So lets make a transaction at stage 0 allows randomly enter the market with buy (0.01lot) position and wait for whats gont occur. Of course the market then proceeds to fall without collapse so what we gonna do? After the market is at -10 position we will sell (0.02lots). This will stun the market for a brief second but Murphy's law remains in effect so that the market...
    Hello Ananas,
    I have looked at theories similar to this in the past and they consistently came up as losing propositions. To try to explain, for simplicity let's have a truned example of your method by saying we could only buy at 0 and just sell at -10 double, then we stop and wait for /- 30 to take place. So your greatest potential positions are 3 Fragrant (1 originally maybe 2 more later) and 4 shorts (0 originally and with maybe 2 or 4 added in 1 or 2 visits to -10).

    Now, only counting in pips won/lost:
    1) goes directly 0 to -30: lose 30 about the 0 extended, triumph 40 (2x20) about the -10 shorts = triumph 10 net
    two ) oscillation 0 to -10 to 0 to -30: lose 90 (3x30) on the longs, win 80 (4x20) on the shorts = lose 10 net
    3) goes directly 0 to 30: triumph 30 net on the longrun, no shorts opened = triumph 30 net
    4) oscillation 0 to -10 to 0 to 30: triumph 90 (3x30) on the longs, lose 80 (2x40) on the shorts = win 10 net
    5) oscillation 0 to -10 to 0 to -10 to 30: triumph 90 (3x30) on the longs, lose 160 (4x40) on the shorts = lose 70 net

    I think these are all the possible permutations should you simply stopped adding positions as clarified and then just waited for /- 30 to take place. If you kept adding with each additional oscillation as per your true example you merely get enlarged multiples of what's presented in 1) to 5) above.

    The numbers indie a negative expectancy. When the maths hurts your mind (it does mine), actual world circumstantial evidence that these sorts of egies are fallacious is that no institution I know of transactions such methods - plus they have a lot of wisdom and processing power accessible to crank through all the possible permutations. When there were a sure-fire winner in there, you can be certain they'd be trading it rather large indeed.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Something we could assume about the market: its gon na na proceed, lets say we're at point 0 in the moment we could tell for sure that the market is gonna achieve point 30pips or point -30pips . So lets make a trade at point 0 lets randomly enter the market with buy (0.01lot) place and wait whats gont occur. Of course the market then proceeds to drop without failure what we gonna do? When the market is in -10 position we are going to market (0.02lots). This shall stun the market for a brief moment but Murphy's law remains in effect so that the market...
    I presume, it's a good business plan! Hope for the best.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Hello...
    Thank you for this analysis I find it now that with each oscillation we'd need to maneuver our take profit farther away to be in profit and in the end it may take a very long time.

  6. #6
    Very good luck with this. However, I believe that the spread you'll pay is going to get the better of you at some stage.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
This website uses cookies
We use cookies to store session information to facilitate remembering your login information, to allow you to save website preferences, to personalise content and ads, to provide social media features and to analyse our traffic. We also share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners.