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Thread: Forex, Greed and Risk

  1. #11
    MinorChant

    I recommend not getting diverted by trading multiple pairs when learning forex. Choose one and stick with it. Currency pairs are like children... they may have the very same parents but their characters are unique. I like EUR/JPY because it moves 100-180 pips each day, generally trends nicely and matches with my trading plans. AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY tend to mirror the behaviour of EUR/JPY and each other but have their own traits. Discover one, then diversify.

    With currency pairs (EUR/JPY), the initial currency (EUR) is that the commodity and the second currency is that the money (JPY). In case you've got a forex account in USD and you buy EUR/JPY, then your broker converts your USD to JPY, subsequently purchases(or sells) EUR with all the converted JPY. When you exit your position, your broker subsequently converts the JPY back to USD. Confused?

    Fractals
    in summary, fractals inform you when the behaviour of this currency is changing on a period by period basis.
    There's a lot of debate on this forum about fractals so perform a search. Here's an interesting debate on the topic: https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/fore...133-forex.html

    Patterns
    Yes, you're correct. I mean reversals and continuations. Tops, double tops, head and shoulders, dead bounce, ascending triangle, descending triangle, channels etc. Look for the forum for this because it is worth more than gold to find out. These patterns occur daily and increase trading success. For instance

    Support and Resistance
    Here's a fantastic thread on the topic- https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/gene...ws-source.html
    I really like to use pivot points. Of all of the technical indiors this is the best because it is used by institutional traders around the world daily. It sets the tone for the day and you understand if the day will be bullish or bearish. For instance, if the day opens beneath the pivot price/point then generally speaking, the day will be bearish. If it opens over the pivot price/point then the day will be bullish. They are really great to watch in action because you may see prices bounce of support and resistance lines since the day advances. You can see the way the price acts when it hits a high or low for the day.

    Require EUR/JPY today (18 Oct 2007) from the M15 chart. The price opened on the pivot (165.61), headed down to the .5 support line, turned and led by means of the pivot and bounced of the top .5 resistance line... pretty cool huh? When it struck the .5 resistance line, the bulls attempted two to break through and failed... a double top pattern example. After neglecting the second time that the bulls gave up and the bears took on dropping the price by 82 basis points in 1hour 15min.

    Weakness and Power
    Open EUR/JPY 17 Oct 2007, change to M15, time 15:30 into 19:45. This is an ideal example of pull back and fatigue. Notice how the price pulls back at 17:30? The bears are taking a little break and the bulls take over. After a short time, the downward trend persists. This pullback is an chance to short even further. I exchanged this tendency from top to pullback and shut the position only because I had to stop trading for the day. These opportunities present themselves with good frequency. You'll see that at the base of the downward tendency, another fractal formed round the 1st support line that took the price back up. Trading this specific pattern through to conclusion would have yielded 150 points in 6 hours of trading.... Absolutely awesome!

    Weakness and Power timeframes
    All timeframes display this fractal pattern.

    Hope this helps

  2. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    hello, welcome to the forum
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Your story is very common for a new trader, and thus don't feel bad. The very first thing I would say to do is make sure you're trading on demo, overlook live trading for a month or two.
    Just how long should I be on Demo? I thought that I am only one, who lost money every day ((

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    You need to find a egy online or make your own (this is much better). It might be a good idea to start with something very simple such as a moving average crossover, together with stops below support/resistance points and a trailing stop to lock in profits.
    There are a lot of egies in the net, but which one should I select? I analyzed some eg's on the background, and they were profitable, but on the real charts they stinks! How may it be?

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    By doing so it will teach you the way to be disciplined and the way to deal with your account with good money management. When you become more experienced, you will probably amend the egy a lot to one which suits you best. Just my two pips. .
    Hope I'll find what I need...
    And one more question. Can you help me with MM? The way to use it? I dont understand, honestly, how can it help me real account. Can you show it on the charts?

    Thank you for all!
    Look forwad for you answers!

  3. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    It#8217;s potential to gather 100-200 pips in tendency, while level is more likely to destroy your deposit.
    I recommend you to see here about trend and flat
    http://www.masterforex-v.su/002_000_01.htm
    I visited this link of yours... There are 3 big books, you know? How can you expect me to see it at once? Anyhow, I've read this http://www.masterforex-v.su/002_000_01.htm. In fact, I liked the theme. I liked trend's defenition:
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    General decisions about tendency from the Masterforex-V trading system
    1. Trend is a directed movement of prices between two reversal patterns going opposite directions.
    2. Movement on tendency is zigzag appearing #8211; the rollback wave follows every impulse wave. This balance of urge and correction between them suggests the trend direction.
    3. Classic figures #8211; this is really a correction version (obviously rollback), upon completion of which, follows the subsequent trend wave
    It is really hard to believe, but I understand it
    But one thing I must mention: do you believe that this publiion wiil be useful for me? I've read so many and I afraid that another ones wont help...
    Now Im a desperate trader. I realised that most systems wont operate on real charts. But still I dont begna quit. At least I will give it a try. Can you counsel, from which portion of this publiion should I begin?
    I appreciate all of the help, and I'm thankful that so many individuals have answered on my own questions!

  4. #14
    Welcome to the forum Minor....

    That I am going to go out on a limb here, and indie that a certain writer's work. Look into the threads of James16. Start with something simple such as pinbars. (He has a huge thread with this one)

    However, after my first year of trading, I can honestly say that I have yet to find a thing that I would call A reliable indior.

    Instead, I would focus on support lines, resistance lines....

    Have a Look at the EUR/USD at 1.4242 (price).

    You will see that several times it bounced down from there. This is a pretty clear resistance area. (It is actually clear on the 4 hour chart.)

    So for example, since I was not previously in this pair....last night, I put in an order to buy 1.4255. (I got hit, and proceeded up...) The reason I set it over is because you constantly have to take into account that not everyone has the same spread. (I have two pips on this pair, but on some platforms it is more like 4 or 3.) This way, I should be clear of these stops.

    Anyway, this was an obvious loion to buy. That is the reason why I took this trade. (In fact, I had been asleep when it had been triggered.)

    You should only take transactions that are evident in my opinion. That is not to say that you can't make money at any given instant, but it actually does not take that many transactions to create a fantastic profit.

    Just the right ones....

    Good luck!

    Clockwork

  5. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I recommend not getting distracted by trading numerous pairs when studying forex. Pick one and stick with it. Currency pairs are similar to children... they might have the very same parents but their characters are exceptional. I personally enjoy EUR/JPY since it moves 100-180 pips each day, generally trends nicely and fits with my trading egies. AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY often mirror the behavior of EUR/JPY and each other but have their particular traits. Discover one, then diversify.

    With currency pairs (EUR/JPY), the first currency (EUR) is the commodity and the second currency is the money (JPY). In case you have a forex account in USD and you buy EUR/JPY, then your broker first converts your USD to JPY, subsequently purchases(or sells) EUR with all the converted JPY. When you exit your position, your broker subsequently converts the JPY back to USD. Confused?
    Yes, I'm a little... So, you mean, I shouldn't see numerous charts at the same time? I'm confused for certain... You wrote that AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY often mirror the behavior of EUR/JPY. As an instance, If I select EUR/JPY as my main pair... Then I can see AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY to restrain it? If it so how can I afford to identify its movement? I mean, if GBP/JPY goes south, then wen I have to buy my main pair? Are there some definite signals? Occasionally these pairs follow different directions, so what can I do in such a situation? I really appreciate you help!

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Fractals
    In short, fractals tell you when the behavior of the currency is changing on a period by period basis.
    There's a lot of debate on this forum about fractals thus perform a search. Here is an interesting discussion on the topic: https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/gene...endations.html
    I've read something about fractals... That writer was Bill Willi. But I have problems with it. By way of instance, sometimes there's a fractal towards the top of the cable. Does it mean that I must sell this pair? How can I precisely define this movement?

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Patterns
    Yes, you are correct. I mean reversals and continuations. Tops, double shirts, head and shoulders, dead bounce, ascending triangle, descending triangle, channels etc. Look for the forum for this because it's worth more than gold to find out. These patterns occur daily and increase trading success. For instance

    Support and Resistance
    Here's a Fantastic thread on the topic- https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/fore...-220-99-a.html
    I Truly like to use pivot points. Of all the technical indiors that is the best since it's used by institutional traders around the world daily. It sets the tone for your day and you understand if the day will probably be bullish or bearish. As an instance, if the afternoon opens beneath the pivot price/point then generally speaking, the afternoon will probably be bearish. If it opens above the pivot price/point then the afternoon will probably be bullish. They are really good to see in action since you may observe prices bounce of support and resistance lines as the day progresses. You are able to observe the way the price behaves when it hits a high or low for your day.
    My problem with all the patterns is that I can easily define them AFTER the movement, and when it's too late. Is there a method to define them at the start of the movement?

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Require EUR/JPY now (18 Oct 2007) in the M15 chart. The price opened on the pivot (165.61), led down to the .5 support line, turned and led through the pivot and bounced of the top .5 resistance line... pretty cool huh? When it hit the .5 resistance line, the bulls tried twice to break through and failed... a double top pattern example. After failing the next time the bulls gave the bears took on dropping the price by 82 basis points in 1hour 15min.
    But how can I define these levels? Can you show on the charts?

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Hope that this helps
    Of course it helps (it isnt dark sarcasm ). I understand some things.
    Please, forgive my curiosity, but it's the very first forum, in which people gave me some answers. On the other people, they just didnt want to bother themselves with all the newbie. But anyway, even a newbie day are a proffy, what do you think?
    Great luck to you on your trading, and thanks for you replies!
    I look ahead to find the replies on my new questions!
    Greatest Speeches!!!

  6. #16
    Yeah. I reccomend to read them guy. And also very serious is to read publiion of Bill Willi Trading Chaos but the first novel all other are far away from theme but in case read them. Some time ago I red this novel Trading insanity but I had lot's inquiries and I found them in this novel which I reccomend you to read. Will it be helpfuull or not it's the decision bro.

  7. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Yes I'm a bit... So, you mean, I must not watch multiple charts at once? I'm confused for sure... You wrote that AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY often mirror the behaviour of EUR/JPY. As an example, If I select EUR/JPY as my main pair... Then I can watch AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY to control it? If it right, so how can I manage to identify its own movement? I mean, if GBP/JPY goes south, then wen I have to buy my main pair? Are there some definite signals? Sometimes these pairs follow different directions, so what can I do in such a circumstance? I really appreciate you help!
    I recommend not watching a number of charts till you have mastered one currency pair. Your not likely to lose out on opportunities because one pair will provide you heaps of action as I'll show later in this response.

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I've read some thing about fractals... That writer was Bill Willi. But still I suffer from it. By way of example, sometimes there's a fractal on the top of the cable. Does this mean that I need to sell this pair? How can I precisely define this movement?
    In isolation fractals just tell you that new information has arrived and a change has happened. Fractals alone don't provide enough information to put in a trade. You need more evidence. I search for how fast the price is changing, it's trend and whether or not it has broken through a daily support line.

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    My problem with the patterns is that I can easily specify them AFTER the movement, and as soon as it's too late. Is there a technique to define them in the beginning of the movement?
    There is no 100% guarantee with whatever here but you are able to begin to see patterns emerge which give weight to modify.

    For EURJPY, daily volatility is generally over 100 pips, thus we understand that on many days, the currency will move up or down by that amount of pips.

    We know that daily pivot points provide us support and resistance lines and as soon as the currency breaks through that one of these lines it's generally headed for another line.

    We know the trend direction from the moving average. In addition, we understand that when a pattern forms(descending triangle et al) the price will behave in a fairly consistent way.

    All these indiors together give us the evidence we will need to predict a movement AS and BEFORE it happens. When we enter a transaction and it doesn't proceed as we called then we exit it fast to preserve our capital and await another installment.

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    But how can I specify those amounts? Would you display about the charts?
    Here's how. The attached screen capture is for EURJPY for its 19th October. It's a 15M perspective with daily pivot points exhibited and 2 moving averages. This specific day was very profitable and I waited for it to eventuate. It yielded over 200 pips for me.

    Notice the creation of a triangle? I adore this pattern since it usually means the bulls are loosing and the bears are winning. Notice the way the bears attempted twice to pull the price down throughout the .5 support line and neglected? Also notice how over a period of 3 hours, the bulls were getting weaker? This can be indied by reduced and lower extremities.

    The numbers here are descriptions for the numbers on the screen taken.

    Notice we knew the times opinion was bearish since the price opened well under the daily pivot line? Additionally, while not shown here, the daily price movements for this currency shows a bearish opinion at the moment. This informs us that we must bet with the trend that's bearish.

    1. I entered the transaction once it broke through the support line, not until. If I was wrong then the price would have turned up throughout the .5 line and I would have shut my position. In this scenario all of the evidence( Triangle, trend, support line) were in my favor and the bears dragged the price right down into the 1.5 support line.

    2. I shut my position when the price pulled back above the 1.5 support line... Profit... 60 pips.

    3. Trend was still down so I entered a position when it broke through the 1.5 support line. I was wrong and the price reversed. Reduction... 8 pips.

    4. This one was complex and I almost did not do the transaction. I waited for the price to rise above the 1st support/resistance line AND above another highs. Trend was up and yielded 40 pips.

    5. I shorted this because it broke through the .5 line and shut my position when price turned up and crossed back throughout the .5 line. Reduction... 5 pips.

    6. Breaking back throughout the .5 line was evidence of bull weakness so entered the commerce. See the pullback? That is a really nice fractal. What a ride! Profit... 100 pips.

    The temptation existed to close my position when the price turned up throughout the 1st support line...

    In summary, 5 transactions, two losses, 3 wins. Losses were minimal and I allow my profits ride.

    I do not understand what software you're using for charts but I use MetaTrader. If you haven't already, attempt to find an indior on your software that pulls daily pivot lines.

    Ultimately, the Bill Willi book on fractals is really worth exploring but I haven't discovered his method very helpful for FX intraday trading. You will miss the huge moves together with his method.

    Regards,
    Trev

  8. #18
    Minor -

    I your latest article I saw two words that you might wish to consider....


    Definite and Just.

    Unfortunately, these words don't really exist in Forex.


    Probable and likely are better ones.

    I know this sounds trivial, but trust me about this: No matter how lifeless certain you are about a transaction - it may work against you.

    Excellent thread though.

    Clockwork

  9. #19

  10. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Yeah. I reccomend to read them man. And also very serious is to read book of Bill Willi Trading Chaos but the very first book all other are far away from theme but in the event you read them. A while ago I red this book Trading insanity but I had lot's inquiries and that I found them here in this book which I reccomend you to read. Will it be helpfuull or not it's your decision bro.
    Thanks! Actually, I have read Willi's book, as I wrote previously. And sadly, I got a lot of queries on this theme. I have read few chapters of this book, which you recommended, and, to my surprise, I found some answers there! This book have been composed on the grounds of novels by Bill Willi, Murphy, Larry Willi, Schwager, Demark, etc (thus much, I know just Willi... ) and there's good explanation of some problems, that was too hard for me personally.
    Anyhow, thank you for your link. But I must find a lot of spare time to move with my schooling. I greatly appreciate all the help, that everybody show on this forum. Thus far none of my problems were solved, however I succeed in starting their solvation.

    With best Wishes,

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