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Thread: USDPLN instead of USDRUB?

  1. #1
    Last 5 days brought considerable depreciation of USDPLN and EURPLN (roughly 5 percent ), Polish Zloty is under pressure lately due to the geopolitical situation of Poland, which has significant trade relations with Russia, meaning that their export can be weakened by Russian emergency and embargo on European meals released by Russia this season.
    Polish market went to deflation this year which pushes Polish National Bank to reduce further pursuits rates. Such tendency can fuel PLN depreciation.

    For all traders which can't exchange on RUB anymore PLN can be a good choice, liquidity on PLN is the biggest among all Central European Nations which attract foreign investors and speculators - that they can go out of their ranks whenever they want.

  2. #2
    Polish central banker Andrzej Bratkowski said on Monday he'd oppose cutting interest rates in response to gains by the Zloty, because easing could result in imbalances and force rapid rate hikes following year.

  3. #3
    The Dollar could weaken even more against the Zloty for its short-term (the worst is to hit 3.61). Things need to stabilize a little for funds to ride this trend. Brief on Euro (the Zloty and every other Central and Est-European currency), long on European Equities, on a bigger horizon.

    @Tomas: The variety of Ukrainian immigrants seeking temporary asylum in Poland nearly doubled this year. It's far from having seen everything from Europe, Greece, Russia or Ukraine.

    Obviously there are better chances for your moment to brief the USD than through PLN.

    Later on, I would even consider buying more currencies from PLN, like AUD (if Oil, Gold or Nickel will spike up), or some other currency that is oversold and has enormous potential to change gears.
    You are able to make any cross you want. By Way of Example, Long AUD/PLN will be Long EUR/PLN Brief EUR/AUD or Long USD/PLN Long AUD/USD.

  4. #4
    I was off by nearly 2.5percent in the previous post.
    USDPLN may fall back to 3.53 in the forthcoming weeks.
    A combination of Greece closing a deal or of Fed sticking with low(er) interest rates will place it from gasoline for awhile (until US Macros get in better shape and Greece will strike on default concerns ).
    DAX has gone crazy for the last two days. Is it a indiion of what's coming next for your dollar?

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Analysts at Citi recommend purchasing basket of PLN and HUF from the EUR; targets EUR/PLN in 3.95 and EUR/HUF in 290 we'll see if they are right.
    Oh, Tomas! It broke my heart. You are among the most inspiring and best people I have met on this forum. I want you all the best! You will make it back one evening and much more!Good luck!

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Most interesting is that focus was driven to that pairs especially after CHF occasion. I don't see any trading potential in them, prefer to continue day scalping in Tickmill price swings yield more to fundamental predictions, while past assembly on SEK revealed intradeable trending. .
    Do you continue to trade USD/RUB? Bearish or bullish? It's very unclear with Putin and their CB regarding policy and governmental course, do you believe oil prices and sanctions are still pressing on the currency? Obtain on? Guess swaps are annoying because of Russian rate. .

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