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Thread: JFX Workshop (all egies welcomed)

  1. #1
    I really liked the original intent of the other practice ribbon that sought to bring traders together in a manner that promotes healthy discussion. Regrettably, the original practice failed because people believed it was a fantastic thought to be closed minded about what does and doesn't *work*.

    The bottom line is that anyone who has exchanged a specific style for an elongated length of time, also has made money doing this, is, in terms of statistics, probably not making money because they're lucky. This much is incontrovertible.

    As it goes, I was challenged to show exactly what I thought when I stated that price patterns alone are not the answer, but instead that price patterns hold a situational degree of value. I will attempt to focus my personal contributions to this practice in discussing that very issue only because it is exactly what I concentrate in.

    I welcome all to include helpful points of discussion irrespective of the timeframe and style you trade within. The practice of the thread will be to get behind the legitimate significance of the various trading axioms we always see tossed around as well as to diagnose and possibly prescribe ways to get around issues that are common to all traders at one point or another.

    Non 1kt members feel free to send me inquiries and they'll be posted for all to comment on. This thread will NOT be shut by me and it shall contain opinions from open minded people who understand that there's more than only 1 approach to trade. I learned how to do exactly what I do in a severe individual and that I take it very seriously myself. My mentor's resume includes Quantitative Design/Trading for the Fixed Income Derivatives desk at Morgan Stanley, Vice President Quantitative Design/Trading at FIMAT Futures USA, Soceite General, in Addition to a consultant for Risk Management with countless other companies. This Individual has edued at Boston College School of Law, University Michigan School of Business, and Many others.

    With that said, let's get this started.

  2. #2

    A few price points to consider when viewing if EUR/USD checks 1.5000 earlier Tuesday's Consumer Confidence and Wednesday's Existing Home Sales figures are released.

    The uptrend station on the 4hr was indeed broken to the upside a slight piece on Friday but that's not a major surprise awarded Black Friday. As of right now the price has retreated from the high of 1.4963.

    Only by drawing in some basic Fibonacci retracements the first stage of resistance is 1.4852. Here is the stage I am looking at mainly because there isn't any real strong data to impact the USD tomorrow(unless Trichet comes out of left field with some thing bizzarre which is highly improbable ). A break of the 38.2% place makes the 50% seem like weak resistance on the eventual way around the 61.8% and then 1.4900.

  3. #3
    Could a mod come in a undelete my last answer to this thread? Had multiple Tabs open and meant to delete a post in a separate thread. Thanks.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Is it a mod come in a undelete my last reply to this thread? Had multiple Tabs open and supposed to delete a post from a separate thread. Thanks.
    Never mind mods, I'll repost it as close as I can recall.

    Basically I stated that the kind of movements I was searching for came about 24 hours after the last article with charts and this morning that the price first postponed in the 38.2% retracement, then made the good break of the 50% on the way up to the 61.8 percent, postponed for a minute, then touched 1.4905 before collapsing back down.

    Once the price was at 1.4861ish I remarked it may not be a bad buy if looking at the short term 3 stage upward trendline. I did not take that commerce as the price has dropped since.

    I also made a comment on why I dislike that the Consumer Confidence report generally since I believe many traders take it too badly. As we could see it was the smallest figure in 2 years yet it did virtually nothing to the USD and the stock market. Pretty worthless indior if you ask me.

    First chart initially posted, 2nd chart is current.

  5. #5
    Currently no real spin on where the price action will move from here but whatever near the 1.4800 level will be decent for those with a long bias going into tomorrow's Home data.

    Anything below 1.4800 and especially 1.4784 will give a few distinct downhill confirmations on the 4hr chart.

  6. #6
    1 Attachment(s) Now let us look at the Canadian Dollar 4-hr chart. The USD has finally pushed back against the seemingly unstoppable Canadian currency. Philadelphia Fed figures came out sooner and were actually quite good. We see USD/CAD testing both the downtrend and Fibonacci lines I have drawn in.

    I would prefer to wait, in the moment, and see if it actually extends around 0.9830 or so in a slide upwards leading into tomorrow morning's TIC information at 9:00am EST prior to heading short. If a person is planning on getting in prior to the release a fast scalp in 0.9826 could be a viable play for 15 pips.

    Time to just wait and see.

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