Originally Posted by
;
I understand you believe that the pound and euro are moving down, nonetheless every bit of technical analysis I do appears to find evidence at each time period the pound is going to strengthen (I rarely trade the euro and therefore have not done the technical analysis ).
From a fundamental point of view that the euro appears to be strengthening, but the pound appears to be a preferred currency by CBs despite generally weak fundamentals. Connected to the dollar, there has been little relationship between great fundamental data and strengthening of the dollar, and the pattern we've been seeing appears to be short lived strengthening, or apparently inexplicable weakening.
I think a long position on cable is the most likely winner, using a target near 1.8500, although I wouldn't be shocked to see it go even higher. When it gets close that place I will have to reevaluate the technicals.
There's no wrong or right before the truth, just different opinions, it's only in retrospect that someone was right and someone else incorrect. I don't claim to be some kind of an expert (I wonder if anybody really is), but I have an opinion and reasons for having it. Most of us need a little humility.
In the end, there would be no market if everybody traded the exact same way on the very same pairs.