After assessing the crap from it. That is what will happen.
1) USD bear spike in shortage of rate increase. .
2) Fade the trend for the remainder of the day....usd strength materializes
Similar to what occurred in equities this last friday.
After assessing the crap from it. That is what will happen.
1) USD bear spike in shortage of rate increase. .
2) Fade the trend for the remainder of the day....usd strength materializes
Similar to what occurred in equities this last friday.
DS, Wow, now that's a detailed answer... Thanks, I am in awe... I have a lot to think about here...
Scott
Originally Posted by ;
Nader,Originally Posted by ;
If FOMC increases rates , be ready for a dramatic strengthening of the dollar. Long everything with USD as short and base where USD is cross. I believe FOMC will melt tomorrow with no additional gains.
But my trading discipline will not allow me the luxury of tunnel vision. I will not lock onto one direction over another; I'm ready to take anything the market provides me. Do love your analysis however.
Just advice; not a recommendation.
By the way Nader, why does your avatar picture show an extended LEFT hand?
That is what's going to accompany if focm makes the decision to raise the rates once again.
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I am not and will not dispute the effect of monetary policy decisions on elections with you. We are in full agreement on this. The discussion was seeing what impact election year politics was about monetary policy and it was that my reply was tailored.Originally Posted by ;
I mention the chapter from the publication to highlight how divergent priorities influence the choices a party makes. The Federal Reserve was designed, and operates, as a limiting force to manipulate the economy. There is a reason the Federal Reserve was given the power and that motive is ignored by the assumptions being made about them working to enhance the agenda .
Your analogy regarding the possessor of gold would be suitable only when a single party possesses it. My argument is that the Federal Reserve and Congress both assert stockpiles of electricity and are seeking to improve their own agendas. I would be very interested in hearing it would be in Ben Bernanke's best interest to abandon his mandate to aid a weakening political party reelection when the duration of his office exceeds each current member of government.
Yes both the FOMC and Congress have power, nevertheless in November that a potential power shift can and probably will happen in the good old boys' club, Congress. When it's all said and done, those guys (FOMC, federal political appointees, and members of Congress) dine in the very same restaurants, attend the identical dinner parties, play golf in the very same clubs, have exactly the very same connections, contribute to the very same fundraisers....that's just political life.Originally Posted by ;
My analogy is appropriate because those who have it (power) never wish to lose it; it is accepted by a measure of force, occasionally in a civil, lively fashion (politically), sometimes not so subtly (warfare ).
Novels and class room eduion will rarely affirm or deny what happens in the halls of power beyond the sterile relationships that allegedly exist as a result of separation of power or checks-and-balances. In other words to believe some body is really unbiased and objective is just naive. Do you believe the US Supreme Court is obviously an independent performer that they are justices for life?
It is called you scratch my back and I will scratch yours; it's called you owe me one; it's called revenge. It is called politics. I call it bending and the wrist guiding the hand in the marketplace. So now in this election season, I turn to you my weekend golfing buddy, whose daughter attends college along with my son, whose wife goes shopping at Tyson's along with my wife, who sits on a couple not-for-profit, charitable fondations together with me, I say to you and say that I need your help, good buddy. And you also say
Bernanke need not leave his mandate but there are exceptions to every rule. FOMC goes beyond Bernanke and I can't tell you who owes what to whom, or who controls whom. But this I know: most if not all the major political players in this town owe a debt(s) or are looking for repayment, and they'll do whatever is necessary to maintain their hold on power. And remember, they all hail from other states, other towns so they're never really isolated from other FOMC members, bankers and the players straight back home, where the voters are tired of interest rate increases (be ye democrat or republic is immaterial, a pause aids everone seeking re-election).
We are not talking an or gate here; it's an and gate. Monetary policy affects politics daily yes AND moreso during election season. Think about it. How about the one hand can the feds say with a straight-face there is no inflation, despite an increase in the so-called headline CPI? They do it by stating core CPI is still acceptable!! Here, that called pressuring FOMC to pause. Quite honestly, that core CPI was probably not a true number. Think. If you ask most Americans living beyond the Beltway, whether we're experiencing inflation, they will give you a frequent sense straight-forward answer
And I never knew how the ADP numbers were out of whack in July!! ADP was way off, but they were probably the true numbers (just out of step with the government's version of fact ). What happened? The July NFP came out confirming no inflation.
Last month, August, ADP got the message and joined the party line as their numbers were consistent with the official August launch, confirming no inflation.
Just distinguish mirage in reality. And interest rates will rise again as our new Treasury secretary is on record as favoring a dollar. Get November out of the way .
Would not be suprised when the fed raised rates however a raise isnt anticipated and they might stay the same at that point. Interesting that COT statistics shows the comms net short the gbp using the hedge funds and idiotic money net long almost at 100 percent lineup... may be setting up for a more long term downward move or dollar strenght an abrupt FOMC rate hike might be a alyst with it. In my opinion im seeing price on the pound sold, at a 123 pattern on 4hr and daily charts... with negative divergence on daily. The pound could move higher but I think were in more land. If something will happne IE usd rate increase seem out gbp we might see a massive move on this pair. (pair I trade sorry I havent mentioned any others). I think chances favor the rate staying the same... a rise would be extremely unexpected.
I concur with this evaluation a rate pause was shrouded in and an unexpected rate hike will observe a sizable initial movement followed by continued dollar strength.Originally Posted by ;