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Thread: looking to build aggressive MM strategy

  1. #11

  2. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Before you do your maths - First know what's PAMM... and compounding a few accounts... LoL
    When I start with $1000 after 12 Months I've approx 4 Mill Change. That's not much compensation for the work I've put in.

    My version says I will double my account in 10 trading days,Crazy HeH, not realy.

    Linuxtroll, I am sorry, I did'nt get a opportunity to read any of the wiki stuff, tomorrow maybe. I like the concept of Multiple accounts at different levels. Thanks for the CCI idea, it's not for mepersonally, but if it works for you, fantastic luck.

    Can you Know Daryl's MA Has Existed for Approximately 5 years? I have all his books,(I believe ). He did a section in Howard Abell's The Day Traders Advantage, that was.

    Great Trading

    Roy

  3. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Hi all,

    I will keep it as simple as possible.
    In my experience, MM is closely linked to Win/Loss ratio. When your ratio is inconsistent stick to 1%-2% and go and brush-up on your trading ability first. Don't even think about trying any MM.

    However, when You've Got a consistent Win/Loss ratio, then Begin with the end in Mind.

    -
    I agree 100% with everything you say.

    Due

    Roy

  4. #14
    Have you been leaving profits on desk? To locate an optimum gaming egy to maximize your equity.

    Virtually every trader heard about the 2% rule:”Do not risk more than 2% of your account in one trade”. I believe this principle (coming from the stock market) doesn't apply to FX market and I'll prove it.

    This”evidence” has also deep meaning for your equity, especially if you're using mechanical methods (expert advisors).

    First a simple example.

    Let's assume that you have a $1000 account.

    You take a position with SL=50 pips using a 10 percent of your equity ($100)

    And you're winning precisely 50 pips...

    Just how much can you have in $?

    You risked 100 USD on SL=50 pips and obtained just 50 so you have won $100.

    With SL=50 pips, if you win 100, then your profit in dollars is $200.

    If you win 25 pips then in dollars you have $50.

    That is very simple to understand:

    Profit = [(number of pips obtained )/SL ] * $100

    (number of pips won split by SL -- call it a market leverage, and multiplied by $100)

    Here $100 equals 10 percent of an account. We call it a VAR -- value at risk.

    Let's go a bit further:

    Definitions:

    C(n) -- capital after n-th trade.
    VAR -- value at risk: percent of total capital risked in one trade.
    X(n) -- consequence of a n-th commerce in pips.
    SL -- cease loss

    Essential formula for the equity funding:

    C(n) = C(n-1) * [1 [X(n)/SL] * VAR]

    so that your funding in the n-th single transaction depends on three variables:

    C(n-1) -- funding after n-1 transactions

    X(n)/SL -- market leverage ( just how much you increased/decreased VAR)

    VAR itself.

    Ok, now we are all set to do some spreadsheet calculations:

    Put all your transactions in a column in excel or similar. (fig 1.)



    If you place outcomes of your own body in column C (the green one) then the formulation (red arrow) should look like:

    =$D$2*(1 ($C4/90)*E$3)

    Where
    $D$2 -- first funding,
    $C4/90 -- market leverage (within this system SL=90)
    E$3 -- VAR -- percentage of your account at risk.

    Then plot a chart of capital after your series of transactions.

    It will look like the graph below. (fig 2)


    Here we have two equity curves based on VAR for 2 strategies (over 100 trades during 9 months in 2006 for GBP/USD). Funding = $1000.

    See how both systems have feature bell bottoms.

    First one has a maximum at VAR= 0.20, the second at VAR = 0,28.

    Split the space to maximum for your system into four equal parts.

    EXAMPLE:

    Maximum in VAR = 0,20

    A [0-0,05], B [0,06-0,10], C [0,11-0,15], D [0,16-0,2]

    For my purposes I define three egies:

    A -- conservative.

    B -- semi aggressive,

    C -- aggressive.

    D -- forbidden -VAR at highest is overly risky although capital in the peak is tempting ))))

    VA-s in D and C Boost equity curve.

    I believe that this strategy is better for automatic trading than for guide. The reason is obvious -- large level of anxiety involved when you risk 15 percent in one trade.

    Playing FX is risky so egy with higher VAR should be counterbalanced with added variables -- taking a part of an account from time to time (to conserve capital) and dividing capital between accounts (1) and brokers (2).

    1. Divide money into two components and perform on one account with VAR for account. This will prevent to some extent declines because of force majeure or even”other variables”.
    2. This conversation I will leave for another occasion.

    I believe that for good calculation of funding curve C(VAR) you need to have over 100 transactions, all from the same, systematically followed system. Don't mix from systems that are various. Plot your equity curve after your system provides YOU consistent, steady profits. Profits of this guy who sold you your own body are insignificant.

    How to utilize these calculations in egies with Expert Advisors?

    Data on the chart are from our EA backtest.
    Operationally I can establish the second system with 0,1 initially (finish of a B area), and if live transactions affirm backtest information (we had a fantastic confirmation in earlier models so I'm pretty sure everything will be OK) - we boost VAR into 0,13, then 0,15 and finally 0,19 (finish of a C area).

    Some closing remarks.

    Best systems would be the most profitable ones IN THE LONG RUN. Single number of pips obtained are insignificant, Forex isn't a sprint it's a marathon.

    I believe calculations as previously would be the missing MM part in FX systems and egies (especially from the automated -- expert advisors).

    Of course this is only a tip of an iceberg, first step to build your own egy. But having a clear understanding how your system works for different VAR sheds new light for its potential and your own earnings. The crucial word in any profitable system is consistency.


    P.S I attempted to uploa fig 1 and 2 but failed Therefore I attached the entire post in word. Perhaps some fantastic soul will enhance the languahe there? I wil be very grateful 4 that and repost it.

    Thanks!

    )))
    https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/atta...8323150637.doc

  5. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Start with $100 and double it each month

    Month 1. 200
    Month 2. 400
    Month 3. 800
    Month 4. 1,600
    Month 5. 3,200
    Month 6. 6,400
    Month 7. 12,800
    Month 8. 25,600
    Month 9. 51,200

    Only a bit off of a million. Seems like you didn't do your own math.
    Its multiple accounts and compounding. Only a good illustration of compounding:

    lt;TABLE cellSpacing=0 cols=3 rules=none border=0 frame=voidgt;lt;COLGROUPgt;lt;COL width=72gt;lt;COL width=171gt;lt;COL width=66gt;lt;/COLGROUPgt;lt;TBODYgt;lt;TRgt;lt;TD style=BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid align=center width=72 bgColor=#993366 height=17gt;Month lt;/TDgt;lt;TD style=BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid align=middle width=171 bgColor=#993366gt;Balance lt;/TDgt;lt;TD style=BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid align=center width=66 bgColor=#993366gt;Risk lt;/TDgt;lt;/TRgt;lt;TRgt;lt;TD align=left height=17gt;
    lt;/TDgt;lt;TD align=leftgt;
    lt;/TDgt;lt;TD align=center SDNUM=1033;0;0% SDVAL=0.5gt;50 percent lt;/TDgt;lt;/TRgt;lt;TRgt;lt;TD align=right height=17 SDNUM=1033; SDVAL=1gt;1lt;/TDgt;lt;TD align=right SDNUM=1033;0;_(\$* #,##0.00_);_(\$* \(#,##0.00\);_(\$* -?? _);_(@_) SDVAL=258.5gt;$258.50 lt;/TDgt;lt;TD align=leftgt;
    lt;/TDgt;lt;/TRgt;lt;TRgt;lt;TD align=right height=17 SDNUM=1033; SDVAL=2gt;2lt;/TDgt;lt;TD align=right SDNUM=1033;0;_(\$* #,##0.00_);_(\$* \(#,##0.00\);_(\$* -?? _);_(@_) SDVAL=676.5gt;$676.50 lt;/TDgt;lt;TD align=leftgt;
    lt;/TDgt;lt;/TRgt;lt;TRgt;lt;TD align=right height=17 SDNUM=1033; SDVAL=3gt;3lt;/TDgt;lt;TD align=right SDNUM=1033;0;_(\$* #,##0.00_);_(\$* \(#,##0.00\);_(\$* -?? _);_(@_) SDVAL=1788.5gt;$1,788.50 lt;/TDgt;lt;TD align=leftgt;
    lt;/TDgt;lt;/TRgt;lt;TRgt;lt;TD align=right height=17 SDNUM=1033; SDVAL=4gt;4lt;/TDgt;lt;TD align=right SDNUM=1033;0;_(\$* #,##0.00_);_(\$* \(#,##0.00\);_(\$* -?? _);_(@_) SDVAL=4737.5gt;$4,737.50 lt;/TDgt;lt;TD align=leftgt;
    lt;/TDgt;lt;/TRgt;lt;TRgt;lt;TD align=right height=17 SDNUM=1033; SDVAL=5gt;5lt;/TDgt;lt;TD align=right SDNUM=1033;0;_(\$* #,##0.00_);_(\$* \(#,##0.00\);_(\$* -?? _);_(@_) SDVAL=12561.5gt;$12,561.50 lt;/TDgt;lt;TD align=leftgt;
    lt;/TDgt;lt;/TRgt;lt;TRgt;lt;TD align=right height=17 SDNUM=1033; SDVAL=6gt;6lt;/TDgt;lt;TD align=right SDNUM=1033;0;_(\$* #,##0.00_);_(\$* \(#,##0.00\);_(\$* -?? _);_(@_) SDVAL=33321.5gt;$33,321.50 lt;/TDgt;lt;TD align=leftgt;
    lt;/TDgt;lt;/TRgt;lt;TRgt;lt;TD align=right height=17 SDNUM=1033; SDVAL=7gt;7lt;/TDgt;lt;TD align=right SDNUM=1033;0;_(\$* #,##0.00_);_(\$* \(#,##0.00\);_(\$* -?? _);_(@_) SDVAL=88403.5gt;$88,403.50 lt;/TDgt;lt;TD align=leftgt;
    lt;/TDgt;lt;/TRgt;lt;TRgt;lt;TD align=right height=17 SDNUM=1033; SDVAL=8gt;8lt;/TDgt;lt;TD align=right SDNUM=1033;0;_(\$* #,##0.00_);_(\$* \(#,##0.00\);_(\$* -?? _);_(@_) SDVAL=234552.5gt;$234,552.50 lt;/TDgt;lt;TD align=leftgt;
    lt;/TDgt;lt;/TRgt;lt;TRgt;lt;TD style=BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid align=right height=17 SDNUM=1033; SDVAL=9gt;9lt;/TDgt;lt;TD style=BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #000000 1px solid align=right SDNUM=1033;0;_(\$* #,##0.00_);_(\$* \(#,##0.00\);_(\$* -?? _);_(@_) SDVAL=622330gt;$622,330.00 lt;/TDgt;lt;TD align=leftgt;
    lt;/TDgt;lt;/TRgt;lt;TRgt;lt;TD style=BORDER-LEFT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid align=right height=17 SDNUM=1033; SDVAL=10gt;10lt;/TDgt;lt;TD style=BORDER-RIGHT: #000000 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #000000 1px solid align=right SDNUM=1033;0;_(\$* #,##0.00_);_(\$* \(#,##0.00\);_(\$* -?? _);_(@_) SDVAL=1651219.5gt;$1,651,219.50 lt;/TDgt;lt;TD align=leftgt;
    lt;/TDgt;lt;/TRgt;lt;/TBODYgt;lt;/TABLEgt;

    Record held so much is 4 months and 3 weeks. She chosen a few pips more than the 5pips target. One of our Japanese trading team, just 3 years from Forex!

    As I mentioned, it is not strange once you see it quite often. Dopey, remain positive, theres a lot of items found yet. Interesting is not it?

    However, Dont try this at home, its own beeeerrryyyy dangerrrrrouuusssss...

  6. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    So if I start with $1000 after 12 Months I've approx 4 Mill Change. That's not much compensation for the work I have put in.

    My version says I will double my account in 10 trading days,Crazy HeH, not realy.

    Linuxtroll, I am sorry, I did'nt get a opportunity to read some of the wiki stuff, tomorrow possibly. I like the concept of accounts at different levels. Thank you for the CCI thought, it's not for mepersonally, but if it works for you.

    Did you Know Daryl's MA has been around for about 5 years? I have all his books,(I believe ). He also did a part in Howard Abell's The Day Traders Advantage, that was.

    Good Trading

    Roy
    Thank you...

    Yes, I know Daryl Guppy's MMA; Alan Hull's MMA and even Market Master Dawn Bolton-Smith's MMA... LoL

    Don't correlate CCI using woodies... even the planet effective flipper http://www.trading-naked.com/paul_rotter.htm enjoys CCI and pf chart... works All of the time...)

  7. #17
    Hi. I like this topic.


    I propose a Reverse Martingale egy. Each trade maximizes the account size dependent on the stopout used.

    By way of example, a $1000 account using a 100 pip stopout level, and controlling contracts that are $1.67 tells you to buy 83 contracts. It's possible to lose 100 pips on a exchange with 83 contracts without a margin call.

    If you are winning 95 out of 100 transactions, and have a known stopout level, you stand to go on a hot streak through the 100 transactions...

    Why not Boost your risk/reward? Buy the maximum contracts the account can sustain inside the margin call level. Mathematically, there's no way to increase the account through a winning series. Don't bet all your bankroll at once (that is why I stated $1000 account instead of $20,000 which are the entire bankroll)

    You lose 80 percent of your $1000.... big deal.... start over with a new $1000.... A winning streak will start an exponential run....

    Oh and shed 80 percent after a couple of wins is a break-even.... how sweet is that?

    Tom

  8. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Its multiple accounts and compounding. Only a good illustration of compounding:

    lt;table border=0 cellspacing=0 cols=3 frame=void rules=nonegt;lt;colgroupgt;lt;col width=72gt;lt;col width=171gt;lt;col width=66gt;lt;/colgroupgt;lt;tbodygt;lt;trgt;lt;td style=border-left: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); align=center bgcolor=#993366 height=17 width=72gt;Month lt;/tdgt;lt;td style=border-left: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); align=center bgcolor=#993366 diameter =171gt;Balance lt;/tdgt;lt;td style=border-left: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); align=center bgcolor=#993366 diameter =66gt;Risk lt;/tdgt;lt;/trgt;lt;trgt;lt;td align=left height=17gt;
    lt;/tdgt;lt;td align=leftgt;
    lt;/tdgt;lt;td sdnum=1033;0;0 percent sdval=0.5 align=centergt;50%lt;/tdgt;lt;/trgt;lt;trgt;lt;td sdnum=1033; sdval=1 align=right height=17gt;1lt;/tdgt;lt;td sdnum=1033;0;_(\$* #,##0.00_);_(\$* \(#,##0.00\);_(\$* -?? _);_(@_) sdval=258.5 align=rightgt;$258.50 lt;/tdgt;lt;td align=leftgt;
    lt;/tdgt;lt;/trgt;lt;trgt;lt;td sdnum=1033; sdval=2 align=right height=17gt;2lt;/tdgt;lt;td sdnum=1033;0;_(\$* #,##0.00_);_(\$* \(#,##0.00\);_(\$* -?? _);_(@_) sdval=676.5 align=rightgt;$676.50 lt;/tdgt;lt;td align=leftgt;
    lt;/tdgt;lt;/trgt;lt;trgt;lt;td sdnum=1033; sdval=3 align=right height=17gt;3lt;/tdgt;lt;td sdnum=1033;0;_(\$* #,##0.00_);_(\$* \(#,##0.00\);_(\$* -?? _);_(@_) sdval=1788.5 align=rightgt;$1,788.50 lt;/tdgt;lt;td align=leftgt;
    lt;/tdgt;lt;/trgt;lt;trgt;lt;td sdnum=1033; sdval=4 align=right height=17gt;4lt;/tdgt;lt;td sdnum=1033;0;_(\$* #,##0.00_);_(\$* \(#,##0.00\);_(\$* -?? _);_(@_) sdval=4737.5 align=rightgt;$4,737.50 lt;/tdgt;lt;td align=leftgt;
    lt;/tdgt;lt;/trgt;lt;trgt;lt;td sdnum=1033; sdval=5 align=right height=17gt;5lt;/tdgt;lt;td sdnum=1033;0;_(\$* #,##0.00_);_(\$* \(#,##0.00\);_(\$* -?? _);_(@_) sdval=12561.5 align=rightgt;$12,561.50 lt;/tdgt;lt;td align=leftgt;
    lt;/tdgt;lt;/trgt;lt;trgt;lt;td sdnum=1033; sdval=6 align=right height=17gt;6lt;/tdgt;lt;td sdnum=1033;0;_(\$* #,##0.00_);_(\$* \(#,##0.00\);_(\$* -?? _);_(@_) sdval=33321.5 align=rightgt;$33,321.50 lt;/tdgt;lt;td align=leftgt;
    lt;/tdgt;lt;/trgt;lt;trgt;lt;td sdnum=1033; sdval=7 align=right height=17gt;7lt;/tdgt;lt;td sdnum=1033;0;_(\$* #,##0.00_);_(\$* \(#,##0.00\);_(\$* -?? _);_(@_) sdval=88403.5 align=rightgt;$88,403.50 lt;/tdgt;lt;td align=leftgt;
    lt;/tdgt;lt;/trgt;lt;trgt;lt;td sdnum=1033; sdval=8 align=right height=17gt;8lt;/tdgt;lt;td sdnum=1033;0;_(\$* #,##0.00_);_(\$* \(#,##0.00\);_(\$* -?? _);_(@_) sdval=234552.5 align=rightgt;$234,552.50 lt;/tdgt;lt;td align=leftgt;
    lt;/tdgt;lt;/trgt;lt;trgt;lt;td style=border-top: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); border-left: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); sdnum=1033; sdval=9 align=right height=17gt;9lt;/tdgt;lt;td style=border-top: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); border-right: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); sdnum=1033;0;_(\$* #,##0.00_);_(\$* \(#,##0.00\);_(\$* -?? _);_(@_) sdval=622330 align=rightgt;$622,330.00 lt;/tdgt;lt;td align=leftgt;
    lt;/tdgt;lt;/trgt;lt;trgt;lt;td style=border-left: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); sdnum=1033; sdval=10 align=right height=17gt;10lt;/tdgt;lt;td style=border-right: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); sdnum=1033;0;_(\$* #,##0.00_);_(\$* \(#,##0.00\);_(\$* -?? _);_(@_) sdval=1651219.5 align=rightgt;$1,651,219.50 lt;/tdgt;lt;td align=leftgt;
    lt;/tdgt;lt;/trgt;lt;/tbodygt;lt;/tablegt;

    Record held thus far is 4 months and 3 weeks. She harvested a few pips over the 5pips goal. One of our Japanese trading group, just 3 years from Forex!

    Like I said, it is not strange when you see it very often. Dopey, stay positive, theres a lot of things out that you havent found yet. Exciting is not it?

    But Dont try this at home, its beeeerrryyyy dangerrrrrouuusssss...
    Hi, I think I'm missing something here... what's so dangerous if you're starting with $260? Is $260.

    Also, what did she do in ~ 5 months?

  9. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Hi ,

    I'll keep it as simple as possible.
    From my experience, MM is closely linked to Win/Loss ratio. Then adhere% and go and brush-up on your trading ability when your ratio is inconsistent. Do not even think about trying any fancy MM.

    However, when You've Got a consistent Win/Loss ratio, then begin with the end in Mind.

    The measures are:

    - Just how much are you ready to drop in 1 trade?
    - Then check your win/loss ratio.
    - Ask this question, together with your current constant win/loss ratio, can your account grow, decrease or dissapear completelly?

    I understand many traders who left a million in less than 1 year with a beginning balance of $100 only. They've a win/loss ratio that is high. They can afford to go 25% - 50% Risk. Crazy huh? Not really! They can do it by simply taking 5pips per day minimum.

    You should possess at least 10:1 Win/Loss ratio, trading less than 1hr per day.

    The measures are:

    - They will harvest as many pips as you can on the first month with 10% - 20% MM (recall, higher win/loss ratio).
    - When they double their money, usually in 1-2 weeks. They took their Balance and transaction the rest. They have a opportunity.
    - Goal 5pips only per day!! At 50% MM
    - This way they twice their account each month, with almost consistent wins! 5pips, c'mon!!
    - They ocassionally took $100 per week when the account reached more than $5000
    - They repeat the procedure with all the new $100. They have multiple accounts .

    Do your math, just how much is 100 doubles each month? Thats $1,000.000 in 9 months. They exchange with 100% confidence, as:

    - Outstanding Trading Skill
    - 5pips target a day only (very quickly )
    - Even when they float their account (which is rare), they still can begin again with all the profits ($100) they shot out each week. (pressureless and emotionless). They can proceed again and again without stripping new funds while keeping the 100 safe.

    Usually, they use PAMM to managed their accounts, which perhaps between 10-20 accounts, all at various stages.

    The trick here is Discipline:

    - Know your ability
    - Utilize strict rules on MM in accordance with your win/loss
    - Greed has no place in Professional Trading
    - Stay humble, it will keep you discipline

    Strange things are only strange when you havent get use to it! Understand your trading ability with very minimal risk, you might join the rank of these traders.

    Crazy huh? Not actually!!

    -
    And what happens if you lose? Much of these profits are filtered out?

  10. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    If I told you (guaranteed you) the next 95 out of 100 transactions that you take would return some kind of profit, would that alter your MM stategy that you use today, only a tad, a lot, or even completely?

    Awaiting you reply and thanks ahead of time.

    This is fun.

    (Let the flames begin)

    Roy.
    Yes, MM is important.
    BUT...
    your proposal contain one powerful premise.
    THAT...
    you could actually make a profit on 95 out of 100 trades.
    In that situation it wouldn't matter what your MM is. You could put the account online a hundred times in a row and make a huge profit even when you made just one pip per transaction. Your Profit/Loss ratio could make the remainder of us green with jealousy.

    THE POINT...
    is that, although MM matters, it matters a lot where you get in and where you get out.
    To be certain the Risk/Reward ratio is important, but I spend more time working on the Win/Lose ratio in my trading compared to anything else.
    That's were the real money is. The more money I've got the more I can manage.

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