Thread: money management of USD20k

The swap is reduced a little, at a trade off for risk. The Yen pairs have a lot of correlation to the worldwide stock markets, and investors are very uncertain at the moment with the credit crunch issues... When the stock markets crash, TRY/JPY probably will also. . Where NZD/TRY would have to achieve a lot better...

I dont like the concept of adding capital to get a negative swing, it seems just like you would be using a lot of leverage. . It may work out and get you great returns, but you always run the risk of price not returning and having to attain a huge reduction, but you gotta do what you feel is ideal for you. . I am more conservative and risk adverse than traders here.

Just my 2 cents.

Originally Posted by ;

yep.. .nice reality check. I was going to say something along the same lines.

Great to see you over here bro

Hey. . Great to see my rainbow scalping mate Haha. . As always, you had to have a SJ quote;--RRB-

To the OP, EUR/JPY and EUR/TRY don't ify one another, lol. Yeah, in theory - you go long and you go brief eur/try. . But not in fact.

If you want them to ify one another, you need the pairs to maneuver in the same direction. . And eur/try have to really go down or upward . Is they are currently going in opposite directions. So you can make profits if carry trades are on. . And completely be doomed in the event of a meltdown.

Rather than 100,000 lots. . I advise you to test out using 10,000 units.

Also, what do you really know of the TRY? Any political unrest and currency can wreck. If anyone is gutsy enough to get in a carry trade I would recommend AUd/JPY. . And that too, is high at this time.

Originally Posted by ;

Yeah, the swap is reduced quite a bit, at a trade off for substantially lower risk. The Yen pairs have a lot of correlation to the global stock markets, and investors are very uncertain at the moment together with the credit crunch issues... When the stock markets crash, TRY/JPY probably will also. . Where NZD/TRY would should achieve a lot better...

I dont really like the idea of adding funds to get a negative swing, it seems just like you'd be using a lot of leverage. . It might work out quite well and get you great returns, but you always run the risk of price not returning and having to permanently realize a huge loss, but you gotta do what you feel is ideal for you. . I am more conservative and risk adverse than several traders here.

Just my two pennies.

Actually
this is quite relative subjective,

alot of ppl use GBPJPY to bring in swap everday....
A number of them utilize stop-loss or heavy/large funds to endure to negative swing, illustration 2000pips of swing.


Today,
case1. If we utilize alot of funds to endure the negative to make the return swap, the downside is funding, but goood yield.

case2. If we utilize smaller funds to make lower swap with lower volatille,
the downside is smaller yield, but account will fluctuate less.


From case1 two,
I believe u're case2 individual, while I'm a case1 individual.


For long term CARRY TRADE, I might really prefer case1.


Since all the JPY pairs are very volatile,and the tendency most of the time for XXX/JPY is bullish most of the time. With unwinding of JPY, the lost 1000--2000 PIPS is sustainble using the case1 scenario.

And following the unwind, the pair usually will bonuce back uptrend again,
then we can enter again during underside. So in the long term case1 is still much better.

Just my 2cent value opinion.

Originally Posted by ;

from case1 two,
I feel u're case2 individual, while I'm a case1 individual. .

Yes, this sounds like the situation... Thats fair enough. . We have different degrees of risk tolerance. Good luck with your carry trading

Originally Posted by ;

I've come using a CARRY TRADE strategy of TRY/JPY


where I trade
EUR/JPY--LONG(100,000unit)
EUR/TRY--SHORT (100,000unit)

exposure===
brief ----------JPY-----16,186,300yen=====140,926.90USD
long-----------TRY-----173,723Lira=======145,136.85USD
Nil-------------USD-----0===============0





in OANDA, this would demand around USD8500 margin,
interest ==USD60 /day
profit ==60/20000===0.3g /day
1year profit ==0.3x365===109%




since all JPY pair are very volatile...
I am wondering, can my USD20K last me for a year whilst surviving all of the SWING in the mean time? Available margin left==USD11K


I am thinking about pumping in about USD2000 to try 10 percent 1st...

any comment or advice from specialist?
Pls comprise critism (don;t worry, I could take it), I might miss something out that is very critical from the view of expert/professionals....

thanks. .

Hey, fellow Oanda user....go into Oanda forum below novice trader section and look for this thread - I doubled my a/c the last year....

It's about carry trade and they can best advise you....

Yup, if you had carried out your strategy in July, you are going to be gone!

Originally Posted by ;

hello, fellow Oanda user....go to Oanda forum under novice trader department and try to find this thread - I doubled my a/c the last year....

It's about carry trade and they can best advise you....

Yup, if you'd completed your strategy in July, then you'll be gone!

I;m not really an OANDA user to be accurate,
I am IBFX user, but after blown my 3 live account there, I decided to quit
and become CARRY TRADERS and begin to consider OANDA,

yes, I will go there and find out.

thanks alot for sharing .


I understand July is a lousy month, I shattered my last LIVE account in IBFX, as a result of the US Subprime problem and my bad $LIVE direction....

And now's actually an extremely dangerous time because the SUBPRIME difficulty not solved yet,
and XXX/JPY could unwind even further...

I was looking at carry trade but realized in the event that you hedge it, you want a lot of money to create a good income and even then in the event that you shut out for profit and reevaluate at brand new price a large meltdown will erase all gains.

Also listen to'don qijote' at the thread...I think page 46 at which he discuss his method.

Originally Posted by ;

I had been looking at carry trade too but realized even in the event that you hedge it, you need a lot of money to create a good income and even then in the event that you close out for profit and re-enter at new price a big meltdown will gradually erase all profits.

Also pay attention to'don qijote' at that thread...I believe page 46 at which he discuss his method.

I know hedging is like insurance,
but hedging also eat into big chunk of the meagre swap everday...

that;therefore I favor the CASE1 situation....
More capital to endure the adverse swing....

I harbor;t check out the OANDA forum,
will do later. .

Thanks...

I guess it depends how you hedge it. . There are several methods to market the carry trades. Some traders even use a non exchange paying broker to cover the side. This might frighten the broker . I doubt you would ever find a non swap broker that will let you TRY that is brief .

Originally Posted by ;

I guess it depends how you hedge it. . There are many ways to hedge the carry trades. Some traders even use a non exchange paying broker to pay the side. This may frighten the broker . I doubt you would find a non swap broker that would allow you to short TRY .

Well, there are few brokers who supplied no swap for GBPJPY

I think there may be some Japanese brokers who offered....too poor I can;t even see Japanese (most of TRYJPY are in Japanese)