money management of USD20k
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Thread: money management of USD20k

  1. #1
    I have come out with a CARRY TRADE plan of TRY/JPY


    where I commerce
    EUR/JPY--LONG(100,000device )
    EUR/TRY--SHORT (100,000device )

    vulnerability ===
    short----------JPY-----16,186,300yen=====140,926.90USD
    extended -----------TRY-----173,723Lira=======145,136.85USD
    Nil-------------USD-----0===============0





    in OANDA, this would require around USD8500 margin,
    attention ==USD60 /day
    profit ==60/20000===0.3%/day
    1year profit ==0.3x365===109 percent




    because all JPY pair are extremely volatile...
    I'm wondering, will my USD20K last me for a year whilst surviving all the SWING at the mean time? Available margin left==USD11K


    I'm thinking of pumping in about USD2000 to attempt 10 percent 1st...

    any comment or guidance from specialist?
    Pls comprise critism (don;t worry, I could take it), I may miss out something which is extremely critical from the view of expert/professionals....

    thanks. .

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I've come using a CARRY TRADE strategy of TRY/JPY


    where I exchange
    EUR/JPY--LONG(100,000unit)
    EUR/TRY--SHORT (100,000unit)

    exposure===
    brief ----------JPY-----16,186,300yen=====140,926.90USD
    extended -----------TRY-----173,723Lira=======145,136.85USD
    Nil-------------USD-----0===============0





    in OANDA, this would require around USD8500 margin,
    interest ==USD60 /day
    gain==60/20000===0.3%/day
    1year gain ==0.3x365===109%




    since all JPY pair are extremely volatile...
    I am wondering, will my USD20K last me for a year while living all the SWING in the mean time? Available margin left==USD11K


    I am considering pumping in about USD2000 to attempt 10% 1st...

    any comment or guidance from specialist?
    Pls comprise critism (don;t worry, I could take it), I may miss out something which is extremely critical from the view of expert/professionals....

    thanks. .
    Looks as in the event that you have NO money management. What is your risk/reward? All you lot sizes are exactly the same....VERY, VERY BAD. Size has to be base on $ risk.

  3. #3
    Lol. Have you even looked at the charts? Just return to July - August and determine exactly what happened:

    Your long EUR/JPY would have been in a reduction of $13659 along with also the brief EUR/TRY would have been in a reduction of $9339.

    Total reduction = $22998.

    Your account will basically be wiped out any time there is risk aversion and carry trade dumping. You forget that ECB isn't likely to increase euro rates , and BoJ might increase their rates. Carry trades truly don't look good .

    Why do you want to make measly interest when you can make 1000s of pips each time carry trades unwind? This is the same mindset (of earning interest) that has caused hedge funds with tens of thousands of $ to go bankrupt.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Lol. Have you even looked at the charts? Just return to July - August and determine exactly what occurred:

    Your long EUR/JPY would have been in a loss of $13659 and the brief EUR/TRY would have been in a loss of $9339.

    Total loss = $22998.

    Your account will basically be wiped out any time there's risk aversion and carry trade dumping. You forget that ECB isn't going to hike euro rates anymore, and BoJ might hike their rates. Carry trades really don't look good.

    Why do you want to make measly interest once you can create 1000s of pips every time carry trades unwind? This is the same mindset (of earning interest) that has caused hedge funds using tens of thousands of $ to go bankrupt.
    yep. . .nice reality check. I was going to say something along the same lines.

    Good to see you bro

  5. #5
    Add carry bit by bit, insert when the swap is gathered large enough, that way your drawdown is limited, use the rest of the margin for brief timer

    any egy are good only when they win, even with 3 pip a day in gbp/jpy which will accumulated over 1000 pips swap per calendar year, it is harmful to just input kindly.

  6. #6
    wow !
    thanks a lot for the positive comments comments


    the intention of this CARRY TRADE is TRY/JPY
    so it's not really have a lot of impact on the way EUR moving,
    since EUR/JPY, EUR/TRY could nulify EUR

    even if JPY increase the interest, TRY==17.5 percent, there;s still enough to make, might be somewhat less,


    this model is build on the MUTUAL FUND concept,
    where there is sufficient capital, we will buy,(of course, I will await the pairs to drop 1st)
    that the gain/profit is your daily interest not the pip....
    That this egy is for long duration not for short or medium term.


    Ya, Thank you for reminding me of the prospective loss, I knew...
    I was able to do this until I lose miserably, blast 3 reside accounts, many endless gloomy nights.
    That;s why I decided to come out for this, no looking at chart everday, only probabaly once weekly. .

    As there are very few brokers provide TRY/JPY,
    so I'm utilizing SAXOBANK of TRY/JPY chart, it would appear that the most significant swing this season within two week ===1200 pips....they dun have pass years data /. .
    (I dun enjoy their platform of carry trade, which they open/close ur trade everday...)
    or anybody got better chart?

    Really appreacite each of the feedback comments

  7. #7
    I like the idea of TRY/JPY because of the interest differentials that are wonderful. 1 thought for you that may decrease your risk. NZD/JPY and tRY/JPY are closely connected much closer than try/jpy and eur/jpy. Even through a major carry unwinding a TRY/JPY NZD/JPY hedge has just had losses historically. It's essentially a NZD/TRY trade if you apply the position sizes. Saxo do so pair I think. . If you bring up a chart, you will notice the swings are smaller than the yen pairs and still nice interest.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I like the notion of TRY/JPY due to the great interest differentials. One thought for you that may substantially decrease your risk. TRY/JPY and NZD/JPY are closely connected much nearer than eur/jpy and try/jpy. Even through a major carry unwinding a TRY/JPY NZD/JPY hedge has just had losses historically. It's essentially a trade if you use the right position sizes. Saxo do so pair I believe. . Should you bring up a chart, you may notice the way the swings are much smaller compared to the yen pairs and nice interest.
    NZD/TRY will lessen the SWAP tremendously...
    also SAXO, somehow I feel their platform doesn;t encourage CARRY TRADE, since the agent told me that our position will be opend and shut everday...

    un doing this pair today?

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    NZD/TRY will reduce the SWAP tremendously...
    also SAXO, somehow I believe that their platform doesn;t encourage CARRY TRADE, because the broker told me that our position is going to be opend and close everday...

    u doing this pair now?
    Ya, you really do shed some swap. . However, the risk is far far lower. . One major carry unwind won't kill ya. Saxo can be utilized for carry trades. . They do they adjust the swap to be allowed for by the entrance, the final result is just like a conventional retail broker with a Swap column. I have attempted NZD/TRY on presentation, but not live. .

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    ya, you really do shed some swap. . But the risk is far far lower. . 1 major carry unwind won't kill ya. Saxo can be used for carry trades. . They do open/close every day, they simply correct your swap to be allowed for by the entrance, the final result is just like a standard retail broker with a Swap column. I have attempted NZD/TRY on demo, but not live yet. .
    Thank you for the reply feedback.


    The reason I dun like SAXO:

    1. They only have STANDARD lot for TRY/JPY
    2. The entrance for SWAP, till I dun see any different, what I believed of opening/closing everday is currently providing them SPREAD to earn. And if let's say I buy in price X.XXX, after a favorable or negative swing back to X.XXX. I dun get some swap, in the mean time that I face the risk of margin call SAXO earned daily SPREAD.



    For NZD/TRY,
    because NZD interest rate==8 percent
    compare to JPY==0.5percent

    that the diiferential interest rate of
    NZD/TRY ===17.5-8==9.5percent
    TRY/JPY === 17.5-0.5=17%

    THE daily swap is efficiently decrease by 50%!!!

    Ya, the negative swing. I know pump to survive the swing or setup STOP-LOSS.

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