quotNever turn a winner into a looserquot - Myth or Reality?
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Thread: quotNever turn a winner into a looserquot - Myth or Reality?

  1. #1
    Hi every1,
    There is one this that's been bothering me for quite some time. THE GURUS say: NEVER TURN A WINNER INTO A LOSER... Pretty obvious, right? No. Not for me at least.

    Imagine if: for example, I move long cable in 1,5, SL 50, TS 50, and it moves in my favour for say 20 pips to 1,502( so its a WINNER currently, correct?) It retraces say 40 pips to 1,498. So now what's its a LOOSER for this moment!! I DID TURN IT A WINNER INTO A LOOSER!!!!!!!!!!!!! But I am behaving according to my plan ( SL 50,TS 50).
    If it goes back up - thats nice, but when it retraces further - I am stopped out, and there's have - a classic WINNER TURNED INTO A LOOSER!!
    Thus, what to do in circumstances like that? Or perhaps I am understanding the entire idea incorrectly?

    Please, Someone Wise And Licensed, clarify this matter for me, please, please, please

  2. #2
    As it's completely BS in my opinion, I never understood that announcement. You never know exactly what the next price will be, in case it moves up 20 pips or 200 and if it goes down 20 or even 200 until it moves up. That means you can be right but being stopped out due to a stop because of market noise.

    For me personally it's only important to get a directional bias (daily/weekly) and proceed with this route. Therefor I do not use stops.

  3. #3
    If you're using a trailing stop that is your favorite method of risk management when a transaction moves into profit. Direction of your exposure to risk is a policy but placing a stop in b/e when a transaction goes a couple of pips in your favor is too prohibitive for me. The margins are tight enough as it is to not win even when you're right.

    That I feel that the phrase really refers to being goal on your decision making when a transaction is in drama. If a lengthy trade is at the green a few hundred pips, looking somewhat overbought, and then breaks down, are you just going to sit down and observe whilst the market trends back down to your entrance, hoping that the up-trend is still intact? What price action is significant enough for you to believe that the reasons you entered the transaction no longer exist? If you use a 50 pip trailing stop it must mean a retracement of 50 pips or greater is significant for you. Personally, I think that needs a greater degree of management than a TS, although that the break of a R would be appropriate.

    I read an guide, (third hand anecdotal so take a using a shovelful of salt) that traders are generally quite adept at picking direction, as far as 70% of the time they get it done right. But do they win on 70% of the transactions? I don't think so. So there must be a problem with the way people handle their transactions.

  4. #4
    I climb in and out of transactions, multiple entries with the attention on their ordinary, once the purpose comes to taking profit, once that occurs that profit is banked or used as a cushion against the remaining position, the worst case scenario then is price reverses and that I wind up getting a small profit or wash.

    I do not look at individual trade entries only my book#8217;s overall profitability on the current leg, therefore yes once a transaction goes to a specific point ( that amount isn't static, current price action dictates) that I won't allow price fall back my ordinary position and/or past the profit that's been booked on that current leg.

    fwiw,

    regards

  5. #5
    They are of turning a winner into a loser scenarious, one is if you wait too long, and expect the tendency go lower or higher. Here the trigger greed is turned on. And your way, it is also turning a winner into a loser. I had this problem over a year, and I exchange more attentively. When my positions goes in my way, lets say 30 pips above entrance I automatically move my stop at my entrance level, so when it goes against me I shall end undamaged. The stop has been hit at zero level, and if the place goes my way, in accordance with my strategy, I would entry again. This is one simple type of MM how not to turn a winner into a loser. I coult recomment if you need about MM some books to see, they're a fantastic deal. Cheers !

  6. #6
    I've tested this rather a much in the past, conclusion: There is no use in using any kind of sl to breakeven or similar - just stick to your exit rules and it isn't important if trade is temporarily in the red - all that signifies is the end result and if the figures are on your side then they are.

  7. #7
    You may want to think about enlarging the idea of win/loss here. It's a loss if your think the goal of 50 pips is possible, and that the market is moving against your initial analysis. Then being down 20 is just part of the path to 50 if you think you may still get the 50. Perhaps there has been an announcement that changes the market perception. If that's the case, and -20 pips would be the best that you can do, then its time to exit the trade and go the other way (instead of allowing it to move all the way back to -50).

    You will find that expertise will make this decision process somewhat easier. For example, if I find myself down 20 after being up 20, and nothing has ever changed re: announcements, and so on, then another time I am up 20, I won't allow it to move negative again (and have probably added to the first place on the pull again ). 's point about getting a much better price is important.

  8. #8

  9. #9
    There are many things. I am one of those people who doesn't like to see a first winner turn into a loser. Here are somethings I have been helped by tha.Consider WHERE you are currently entering the market. If it's in the center of a momentum move then maybe 50 pips stop is too near. . .depending on which time period you trade of course. Consider putting your stop and studying where the swing stage is. Bear in mind that markets NEVER move in a direct line. . .even on tick charts you will find retracements and corrections. So maybe you may watch these stage and learn whether the market really has turned from you or is retracing on a larger trend. Consider breaking up your position into halfs or thirds and require a small portion off whenever you are in a fair amout of profit (only you can decide what's reasonable). Move you end up to protect that profit. . .if the market goes against you you still have a little profit..if not you receive the complete ride and them a few if you really feel like it. You'll discover that #3 is liberating and you may feel like allowing your profit ride for only a bit longer perhaps gain 50 a second 20. . .who cares that your commerce is risk free. . .no matter what happens you have a least a small winner (that beats a loss or even BE) I really don't know if this help you but I've discovered that this has liberated my thinking and attitude toward the market. Now my 2nd half position goes for hundreds of pips rather than the first 75-90.

    When you get to this stage you will also begin to realize that no matter what time period you trade there is obviously a BIGGER one with a larger trend that may carry your transaction further and further than you ever thought possible.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Hi every1,
    There is one this that's been bothering me for quite a while. THE GURUS say: NEVER TURN A WINNER INTO A LOSER... Pretty clear, right? No. Not for me at least.

    Imagine if: for example, I go extended cable in 1,5, SL 50, TS 50, and it goes in my favor for say 20 pips to 1,502( therefore its a WINNER currently, right?) ...
    It's less or more BS.
    Never letting a winner become a loser, would imply setting it to break despite a 1 pip profit.

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