Thread: Greenspan and Currencies - Delusional?

Originally Posted by ;

thanks to all the men and women who have contributed to this thread so far!

I'm pretty sure this will be my last post cuz I believe I have said what I had to say.

In closing I will state:

1) if recognized, always profitable systems exist that are certain to earn between 10%-30% per year in the forex market....

You WILL not get your hands on such systems. If these system were made public, they'd start too neglect, because a lot of can't be profitable! I believe I explained everything you need to know about this point but you refuse it. You need to understand market mechanics...

just reading the charts combined with appropriate mm and sticking to rules makes you constant profitable, however u need to invest tens of thousands of hours in learning how to read and udnerstand what is happening. Until you understand that the person trading the system has become the most crucial part once you discovered a system that has proven to do double digit returns over the year. Such system exist enough. . .but I believe the problem here is that you will need to evolve into your thinking and just childish posts such as the one above and that you are the sort of man who, as it seems, enjoys just to fight that which we say, does not help you. 10-30percent a year is not something special in those times. You can yield this within a month or even week.

It seems that somehow you have been stuck on your journey to trading success within the past decades. The only advice for today I can give you is: eliminate indior based systems, they will not make you feel comfortable, nor will they work consistently except in the event that you are happy with takign 2 transactions per month. The other point is performing some study on trading plogy which is a thing absolutely every leading trader deals together and constitently works outside with private coaching or own rulesets. If you start to realize the value of those two aspects, you are on the right way.

Originally Posted by ;

in Final I'll state:
Buffett, Gates, Conservative Christians, Coca-Cola, Conan O'Brien, The Tooth Fairy, Facebook, Twitter, Barack Obama, Colbert, Bill Clinton, YouTube, Google, Electro, Greenspan, Women, John Lennon's Spirit, Preview Post, Submit Reply and Also This Man

Yeah....cut your caffeine Consumption by half, I've also heard hitting yourself on the head with a baseball bat helps

Originally Posted by ;

please prove me wrong. Please inform me that profitable systems do exist and that I too can eliminate needless blindness in Africa.

I dont believe there are profitable systems but there are traders who employ a method consistently and above a set time and so become profitable.
What I am attempting to state is that a system per se can't be profitable but that profitability is dependent upon how consistently somebody implements that system.

Another factor that, I discovered, makes trading hard to grasp is profitability in combination with time.
E.g. those turtle guys might have been shedding for 6 months in a row but within a 12 month period they were profitable.
So how can you quantify profitability?

Dunno about you being able to get rid of blindness in Africa even though you were 10 times richer than the richest man on the planet.

Don't be naive to believe there is no profitable system.
I'm again emphasizing, the 2nd greatest thing apart from making money is preventing others nto to make money. That is how this game of sharks functions and a rule of wallstreet.

The hell would anybody who can count till three discuss a profitable system with the wide mass. Again, this could indicate the begin of these systems finish, because the whole market can only work when the biggest quantity of participants will be mislead and loses money.

Originally Posted by ;

1) if demonstrated, consistently profitable systems exist that are GUARANTEED to earn between 10%-30% a year

In my experience a system can't be'known' to operate or'guaranteed' to make a predetermined amount. The market varies so much its a dynamic thing, thats your mind and trading needs to be a lively and changing item. Price patterns that worked a few decades ago, do not work today make the market has changed. New patterns are emerging today, and also a trader must be quick to see and adapt to them.

ex. The turtle system that worked back in the afternoon, does not have exactly the very same consequences today.

Do you know that a system can have a hit rate(profitable positive pip trades) of 13% and still get super returns. Why? Provided that your winning trades are somewhat bigger than your losers. (money and risk management). (I chose 13% since I have really seen a breakout system with that statistic. It was like a 40% returns a year)

You can have a 95% hit rate on trades (optimistic pips) nevertheless still eliminate money if your losers totally reevaluate your winners.

What's your definition of profitable?

137,
I did not find any reply to any of my questions below so I'll re phase them.
The number of five star trading strategies threads have you see, practiced which were launched by ff folks with more than a few vouches?
Do you spend more time on threads such as this one than actually trading?
Https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/cryp...mql-learn.html
I see swingman's is in your buddies list, you could begin a thread on creating a trading strategies with a number of his or her indis, I am sure he would give you a hand if he's the time.
My previous sig file comes to mind also:
2. The second issue is they are all looking for the Holy Grail There is no mechanical system that's a Holy Grail...I've been watching the contortions of a trader here that is attempting to establish Elliott Wave is your answer... BS!
However, allow me to tell you a secret. . .there is a Holy Grail. Every time you look in the mirror, then you will see it. It is you.,
from:
https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/gene...-ma-cross.html

Originally Posted by ;

137,

What trading systems are you tired, for how long, demo, to micro ?

Do you have a favourite set of indiors etc yet?

Try taking a few of them play with their settings somewhat if necessary for whatever you find that may work best for this particular pair's time period or chart type your using.

Article a few screen shots, and ask what you can do to make it better.

You might be surprised with what you, ff develop with, and it's going to be custom made for you.

Or have you even bothered to take some time to look at a few of the profiles of the people who've been submitting to you ribbon?

As you can see 137, the assertion of a non-predictible market has attracted a lot of out posters, all politely attempting to show you the error of your ways. From your last post, it looks like you are becoming tired of protecting yourself. Do scientists. Listed below are a few points I think we can agree on:

1) There is no set of rules which can be rigorously followed which can produce profit into infinity. I feel that most of the posters on this board will agree to that. Why not? You say due to market randomness, others say altering market conditions. You say potato, they say tomato.

2) You will find, without question, a few of traders who are successful after a long period, let us say 10,000 transactions (approx. 5 years daytrading). They say this is because they have figured out a good system, or they are astute in reading the market, or even a combination of the two. You and I'd say that they are accounted for under the bell curve along with also the avaialbe place under that curve is continually shrinking. Mr. Greenspan would say that, given a high number of participants, there would be a small number of succesful coin flippers after 10,000 flips.

3) Imagine if you and I are wrong? We have to allow for that possibility. Yes, we've got mathematics on the side, as well as logical reasoning.... But that same mathematical rigor requires that we give some weight to the chance of error. If that is true then we are in precisely the same plight as people who oppose us in this argument. If our minds will be changed, I seriously doubt. OK, some emperical evidence would be fine... but it would require a lot. Our minds are composed.

4) What exactly to do? Give up? Nothing wrong with that. It will not cost us any money. The only other choice is to search for solutions that allow for achievement given that the markets short term moves are actually arbitrary. This is the place that I am working on now.

I want you all the best in your journey....

Regards,

Petra, what would constitute evidence of behaviour?

Originally Posted by ;

Petra, what would constitute proof of non-random behavior?

That's a very complex answer. To establish something is random or not is moving into the realm of themes for PhD dissertations. While the answer is not simple, I'll give you a simple concept to think about, and this might start you down the road.

To declare that a set of numbers or patterns since non-random it is just necessary to discover a program that will generate the string and is substantially smaller than the chain itself. For example, you can compose a progam that provides you with the Daily Close for E/U for the last 400 times -- but the dimensions of that progam is bigger than the data set it produces. If you were able to boil that progam down to one, concise program (probably some form of cubic spline) you might well be on to something. I have tried and have not been able to locate such a formulation.

There are different means to declare a succession non-random, including inductive reasoning and algorithms... but let us just leave it for now.

My conclusion is short term price moves, as they link to the retail FX customer, are sufficently random to prevent changing the inherent negative expectancy to positive expectancy.... Assuming that you are currently using a system that needs you to correctly predict price moves.

But I should be clear that I am not searching for a response because for me the question has been answered a long time ago. And maths is the wrong tool for this as well, because there's a premise which non-random = profitable. But sticking with maths to get a minute...

Do you believe then, for instance, the hourly distribution of range highs/lows plotted by hour for the past 1/2/5/10 years to become nothing but a freak event?