Greenspan and Currencies - Delusional? - Page 3
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Thread: Greenspan and Currencies - Delusional?

  1. #21
    The seeming ability of a variety of banking organizations to make consistent profits from foreign currency trading likely derives not from their insight into future rate changes but from market making.

    There it's...

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    hey I understand folks reading this thread has to find my statements pretty annoying by today
    I would say funny more than bothersome, you're attempting to convince folks who produce consistent gains that....they can't produce consistent gains

    Either you enjoy exercises in futility or there's some complex plogy happening here. What is your story? Tried and failed? Never attempted? Want to test but scared to neglect? Come on spill the beans, there's got to be more to this...

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I've posted extensivley on this topic in other threads....
    Patterns exist on each level of lifestyle.

    This planet... the FX world is no different.

    Patterns may be exploited to earn money.

    Markets aren't mathematical - when they had been there are plenty of MIT turd cutters onto the forbes list.

    There aren't.

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    no? With all due respect, how can it not be? If a system has no element of consistency then why the hell should it be substituted? The fact is there needs to be some type of consistency. Like you stated the turtles' system was profitable 3 of 12 months - that is an instance of consistency. A system that doesn't have some measurable profitable consistency is definitely not a tradeable system. It is a random pattern generator.
    I'm putting consistency in the context of people's preferences and preferences. I was indicating that profitability is around the% profits of your trading account and less about consequences. Of course most people need consistent wins to be able live off. For many this consistency needs to be on a normal basis, from daily to weekly. For others that are lucky enough to have larger accounts are able to rely on consistency on this smaller time scale.

    People who rely on consistent wins on a smaller time scale are more vulnerable to plogical mistake than those that rely on immediate wins/consistency. The larger scale'profiters' are far more inclined to have the ability to exchange their system systematically knowing that eventually their wins will be higher than their losses which makes them profitable complete in the longer term.

    The smaller time frame'profiters' (those who require that they make x amount of cash every day per week), are more inclined to concentrate on enhancing their daily/weekly win/loss ratio and their strain to keep wins will be higher. As a result they are less inclined to follow their trading principles for their own system to receive them back into profit and are more inclined to keep adapting their method and jump onto another method in the hope of higher consistency.

    Systematically after your trading principles will set you in profit complete when you give it time to ride out the draw downs it might produce -that will be different from month to month to year, based on the flow of those markets. On the lookout for short-term consistency will ruin your trading mindset that will ruin your functionality in regards to after your system that can result in draining your account.

    Of course, those traders that are making consistent wins on a regular basis already understand the mindset required to trade profitably and adhere with their trading principles regardless of the losses it may also produce. So fundamentally, its not about the consequences of this machine its about the consistency of this trader to follow a set of principles. If the trader is foolish enough to follow an unprofitable trading platform to start with then that is another problem altogether. However, to imply that systems are unprofitable is absurd.

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I'd say funny more than annoying, you are attempting to convince people who produce consistent gains which....they can't produce consistent gains

    Either you like exercises in futility or there is some intricate plogy happening here. What's your story? Tried and failed? Never tried? Want to try but scared to fail? Come on spill the beans, there is got to be more to the....
    Like I've said, if those people are generating consistent gains by industry standards and possess a proven system that doesn't rely on luck, then they must be on their way to the wealth all of us dream about. Ridiculous prosperity if you will, disgusting'how can you live with yourself without helping people with 98 percent of it' kind of wealth.

    Call me a cynic but my guess is that they only believe they have a consistent approach when in fact their profits are basically random and mostly based on luck. Otherwise tell them to call up Buffett and get him to throw them a dime (10 million). Why would he throw spare change at a GUARANTEED (constant ) system, which, if you take compounding into effect, becomes a magical ATM?

    Here it is: I've written A LOT of EAs. Ok so that doesn't work. now what? Well there is that little word called'discretion'. Hmm discretion ? Like'its gone up for a little while so that it should return'? Or'its gone up for a little while so that it should consolidate'? Or'its gone up for a little while so that it should keep on going up'? Or'its consolidated for a little while so that it should move upward, or was down that?' ? Or'its transferred down then up then backward so its certainly gonna proceed someplace, or not'?

    Please inform me. How do I develop a system which matches the definition of consistency so that I also can join this elite club of retail FX traders who assembled an ATM that doesn't have to be pumped and that was purchased by an investment bank just in time to save the poor kids of Sub-Saharan Africa?

    Ok, forgive me, I'm having a little bit of fun with this. I'd rather be earning money though.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I'm placing consistency in the context of people's experiences and expectations. I was indicating that profitability is about the% gains of your trading account and not as much about consistency. Of course most men and women need consistent wins to be able reside off. For most this consistency has to be on a normal basis, from daily to weekly. For others that are fortunate enough to have larger accounts can rely on consistency with this smaller time scale.

    Those that rely on consistent wins on a smaller time scale are much more prone to plogical...
    yeah for certain, fair enough, I might tend to agree with you on these factors.

    Now everything comes down to how we consent to define consistency. I do not define consistency as'well if we lose 10% this year then hopefully we will make it up next year'. I define it as earning 2%-3% per month while at precisely the exact same time permitting for breakeven and little loss months. That seems fair, does not it?

    Going by this (conservative) definition anybody that has a consistent currency trading system is the new Robin Hood.

  7. #27
    I believe the problem with your argument is that you just use the word'consistency' to refer to wins. If you consider the consistent losses, then to be profitable overall you may understand that one must use Money Management, which allows for the probability that X amount of consecutive losses may occur at any moment, in a period of day/week/year etc..

    The above is the reason trading sensible amounts of money per transaction to see you through the potential amount of losses, will not make any individual using the machine a billionaire any time soon. Succesful trading is about slow account growth and employing a leverage which will allow you to withstand massive losses and still enable your account to increase, year on year.

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I'd rather be earning money though.
    I am sure that you would, but do you seriously feel that a sarcastic and cynical strategy with unrealistic expectations is going to get you ?

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I think the problem with your argument is you use the word'consistency' to refer to wins. If you consider the consistent losses, then to be profitable overall you will understand that one has to utilize Money Management, that allows for the probability that X amount of successive losses can occur at any moment, in a span of day/week/year etc..

    The above is the main reason why trading sensible amounts of money per trade to see you through the potential amount of losses, will not earn any person using the machine a billionaire anytime soon. Succesful...
    well this thread is about asking the question'does a consistently profitable system exist?' And I identified what I believe profitable consistency. You're talking about drawdown. Well I don't understand why anyone would accept losing 20%-50% or more of the cash at any given time. Even 15% is a lot. You'll have to excuse me for not adding that as a defining characteristic of the'holy grail'. To be honest I only assumed the accepted 10% rule.

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    well this thread is about asking the question'does a consistently profitable system exist?' And I identified what I consider profitable consistency. You're speaking about drawdown now. Well I do not understand why anybody would accept losing 20%-50% or more of their cash at any given time. Even 15% is too much. You'll have to excuse me for not adding that as a defining characteristic of this'holy grail'. To be honest I just assumed the accepted 10% principle.
    So it boils down to cash management and knowing the ability of your own body. Most traders will shit their pants in a 10% draw then jump on a different system and do exactly the same thing again and not actually understand why any of it happened. You can't just blame the machine. Money/risk management has alot to do with it and seeing the larger picture.

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