Thread: Technical analysts are very confused

My perception is that economic/political choices go the markets.No bank or political entity has complete control on a worldwide scale. these do not necessarily know which way the markets will proceed.

Unless Warren Buffet makes the decision to move a couple billion dollard across the sea....then he proceeds the market

But there are seasoned, successful traders who know
the significance behind the fundamentals and how they interrelate
into sectors of their market and currency markets. Having gained knowledge these ones merely use selected indiors in conjunction. Indiors are thus used by them, if at all, as an adjunct not as a predictor or mover. I'd like to see more of those knowledgeable traders here describe these fundamental correlations.

I agree there are lots of successful traders out there. And I would like to learn more about analysis and fundementals. Cause a couple of weeks past lots of specialists where worried on CNBC the US market is slowing down at pace. Existing Housing Sales went , New Housing Revenue more thus creating unemployment. Retail sales werent great. CPI and GDP figures werent all that great. All in all it had been the 1st Quarter at a long time for the US market. So one would think that dollar gonned na get weaker especially after comparative Euro news. But on thursday the dollar made a return getting around 100pips. Can anyone explain that to me?

Just to return to technical analysis again. My view is that people get so focused on their indiors (that is mostly lagging) they forget about the larger picture and common sense



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Originally Posted by ;

that is a very uncalled for announcement. You need to have the decency to ask me how I do it. And maybe you can learn something. But if bashing is the style then I suggest you move on to the Trading System themes and celebration at the folks there.

I am sorry, I believed the original quote on the first article was a little bit of a celebration of technical traders, no more?

Appears to me it was.

And in case you have the money, or are enjoying microlots or whatever to hold onto a position for months, then that is called position trading. Position trading is completely different than most people can trade.

So far as technical indiors, draw a fibonacci, they have a tendency to work. The main reason ? So many people THINK they work. Trendlines work. Draw one on a daily cable chart from about June of 2006. (roughly) This wasnt an imaginary line.

Fundamentals are fine. But people with a lot of cash are constantly pushing on it. Panic traders that pull on the trigger everytime a rumor is released into the market, are nothing more than noise.

Therefore my advice is that: learn TA, in the event that you really can hold onto a 200 pip loser before it goes your way, thats fine. It also can validate your buying in a price for example.

But attempting to figure out exactly what Trichet meant a few months ago by leaving out extreme vigilance isn't trading in my view, it's attempting to see a stranger's mind.

I dropped some cash this week in cable if it blew during that trendline mentioned previously. I was buying it if it was inexpensive, so in essence, precisely the same thing is being done by us.

But ask yourself this: Why does a gut feeling about the value of a currency tell you when to buy? Does it tell you when to escape a trade?

I am willing to wager the Yen at 122 is considered exspensive by a few people. But if you draw a few lines on a monthly chart, you can view it isnt in a historical perspective.

The greatest trend traders all use TA, and dont bother with much in the manner of fundamentals. Charts dont lie. Analysts do. Imagine having a job where you have to have an opinion. So it's not a stretch to state if nothing else to make a deadline that they wing some of it.

[quote=ybeidas;1462440]

Originally Posted by ;

blaming technical analysis is not any better than attributing the market for losses. A fantastic trader should have the courage to blame himself and only himself for his trading losses


Sorry about your loss, but I totally agree with your statement. Furthermore, I think not and one should be open minded dismiss ideas as we're the only losers once we do this. There's a lot to find on the market, and I believe one can learn something. I also consider mistakes as valuable classes (I am just a slow learner ), together with silver linings, possibly this mistake will stop us from performing a larger one in the future, who knows? . .and perhaps how one responds is exactly what makes a fantastic trader even better.
Nader, u r too great to be on the losing side for long. .
Joyful pippin all

Thanks my friend. A loss is a loss and we can not stop losses, we can only minimize them and attempt to lower their impact on our equity...I think nobody is too great so he can not have losses. . .Despite that the friday's loss, I am still doing fine since I really don't over trade and do not have too many associated trades in the exact same time. . .So do not worry my friend


Thanks,

Nader

Originally Posted by ;

I am studying technical investigations while I await my transactions to shut. A number of my transactions require to close. So u can see I have lots of time on hand. . .lol

I am totally NOT into trading systems. I buy when the price is low and sell when the price is high. Easy as that.

I agree a trader can only blame himself if he looses a trade.

Ouch on the dual reduction on friday. Hope you make this up again.

Ps....what do u think of the inverse relationship between gold and the usd?
That's among the fundamentals that I rather think....when usd is feeble then gold transactions higher. . .and I will understand the logic behind it....gold is almost always a safe haven....

I also think from the inverse relation between Gold and the USD. This relation isn't valid all of the time. I have not done a statistic study on that, but I feel that in 75 percent of the time, gold and the USD proceed against each other and the remaining 25%, they move in the exact same direction.

Great trading technique, I would like to buy when price is low and sell when it's high, but just how can you specify high and low? I think you must have a benchmark my buddy


Thanks,

Nader

Originally Posted by ;

If technical analysis forecasts drives you up the wall, then do not listen to it or see it. It is as simple as that. The problem is not with Technical Analysis or any other method, the problem lies within traders themselves. Please see Market Wizards, you will fund a bunch of successful traders using different egies and analysis methods.


Should you believe technical analysis is a waste of time, then why waste your time reading it. However, allow me to tell you, do you know why you actually waste your time reading it? Since everyone is trying hard to find the analysis methodology that will reveal to him/her where's the market going to move and according to this he/she will wither buy/cover or even sell/short. That is why people who do not believe in technical analysis research technical analysis.


Thanks,

Nader

I guess you have missed my blog cause the last time I checked I believed I had been doing much better than many as technical trader.

Trust me partner if I could avoid reading a few of it I would but that would be like trying to overlook visiting Paris or Britney on TV. Your missing the point between technical analysis and technical traders.

Originally Posted by ;

I guess you've missed my blog cause the last time I checked I thought I was performing better than most as specialized trader.

Trust me mate if I were able to avoid reading some of it I would but that would be like attempting to miss visiting Paris or Britney on TV. Your missing the point between technical analysis and traders.

Technical Advisors differ from specialized traders, of course I can understand this. I referred to how technical analysts are not predictors. A technical analyst shouldn't be predicting that the market going to go down or is going to go up. A technical analyst should tell you, what's the probability the market is going down and what's the probability the market is going to go up and on what timeframe. This is a technical analyst's actual task.

For example, if I am technical analyst and I am asked to write a technical report on the US market, the SP 500 index for example, I would say that for the short term, the market is oversold and it has a higher probability to go up than to go down. This applies for your short term, meaning that a few sessions. For the intermediate term, the market is experiencing weakness in momentum and probability of a correction is significantly trend continuation. Saying that the market offers a higher probability to go up over the term doesn't contradict' higher probability to go down on the term.

Finally, I, as a technical analyst, needs to encourage what I am saying with evidence and numbers. This is exactly what analysis can provide you.

On the other hand, a specialized trader is a person who is using technical analysis for a methodology to base decisions upon.

What I was saying in the first area is that people mock at technical analysts because they say the market is going up, but it can also go down, so not providing specified directions. Technical Traders utilize technical analysis combined with money management tactics and their own ideas, so a trader is a specialized analyst anyway.

I believe that there is not any method that's far better than another as long as it gets you always profitable.

Go check Ed Seykota performance should you think that you are performing well relative to most technical traders. Performance is not measuring how much you make from how much another trader gets. Performance must take risk and draw into consideration.


Thanks,

Nader

Again, I'm going to pull the weatherman analogy .

Weathermen are not in the company of predicting weather, they are in the company of forecasting weather. The small difference is that the latter involves probability. A weather prediction doesn't say that there's an x% chance of precipitation, although it'll rain tomorrow.

In exactly the same style, technical analysts do not predict market direction, but predictions it. And in the same manner that the Farmer's Almanac predictions weather for the following calendar year, and the Weather Channel has 10 day and 2 day predictions analysts predict market direction. Those analysts that say they could forecast market direction therefore are most likely filled with crap, and do not know what they are referring to, so it's ideal never to listen to those type of people.

There are some technical traders that do actually correct position size according to strength of signal, or likelihood it'll go in a specific direction. For instance, should they get a signal , they might only risk 1 percent, but if they get a signal, they will risk 3 percent.