Technical analysts are very confused
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Thread: Technical analysts are very confused

  1. #1
    Is it only me or have u read the some so called experts do technical analysis on a daily basis. I find that their analysis very entertaining. Maybe they believe they are clever and market readers, but in my humble opinion they simply reveal their ignorance and say the obvious. BECAUSE NOBODY HAS CONTROL OVER THE MARKET. Nobody knows what the market is gonna do. (That is the reason why some usage indiors. And also the most posts/discussions are observed in the Trading System egorie. Everyone is looking for a system that could predict the market)

    In short all the technical analysis are all saying is: The Eur/Usd might wind up, but then again it might also trade down.

    That is similar to saying: It might rain , but then again it might not rain tomorrow

    Please correct me if I am simplifying this or lacking some very significant calculations/formulas/guessing

  2. #2
    I believe it has more to do with deciding what's a greater probability.

  3. #3
    It might seem like confusion, but when you learn to read and try to find market conditions rather than direction it all fits into a practical picture.

    At any given time there is enough technical and fundamental info to give you a degree of certainty for what price is doing and can perform. Learn to guage market conditions not market leadership. This usually means that you will not have just two choices (down or up ), however three (trade with the trend, trade against the trend or don't trade because you're not certain ).

    My trading has improved considerably since I've shifted my perspective to look at condition not leadership.

  4. #4
    [quote=KudzuFX;1460418]It may seem like confusion, but when you learn how to read and look for market conditions rather than management it fits into a picture.

    Hi Kudzu,

    I am a newbie. Would you mind simply defining'conditions' .

    Thanks

  5. #5
    It's been a long time that I dont listen to market analysts. I've arrived at the conclusion that nearly all of them have no idea of what they talk about. I listen to my expertise and my system.

  6. #6
    I agree, nobody has control over the market, but what you really do have a lot of is self-fulfillment. With technical analysis, particular triggers become powerful motivation to behave in an identical pattern, and when enough of the people today behave, it will become true. . .sort of curve fitting. It does not occur all the time in order for it to happen all the time, the ratio of people not to doing it, doing it needs to be the same.

    That's why sometimes the price bounces off the 100-EMA and at times it does not.

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Is it just me or have also read the several so called experts do technical analysis on a daily basis. I find that their analysis very entertaining. Maybe they believe that they are smart and market readers, but in my humble opinion they only reveal their ignorance and say the obvious. BECAUSE NOBODY HAS CONTROL OVER THE MARKET. Nobody knows what the market is gonna perform. (That is the reason why some usage indiors. And also the most posts/discussions are found in the Trading System egorie. Everybody is searching for a system which could predict the market)

    In short all the technical analysis are all saying is: The Eur/Usd may trade up, but then again it may also trade down.

    That's similar to saying: It may rain tomorrow, but then again it might not rain tomorrow

    Please correct me if I am simplifying this or overlooking some very important calculations/formulas/guessing

  7. #7
    With technical analysis, you increase and just try ur chances. When you begin trading, ur odds of success are maybe 10-20 %...u learn, experience, study and try to increase that percentage to over 50% so that r sucessful on a consistent basis...

  8. #8
    Vegas operates margin in their favor. Meaning a chance is any client will acquire, but a 54% chance the home will win.

    Technical analysis is that, skewing the probability of succeeding in your favor, after that it is all margin management.

    Should you backtest a certain setup that pays out 67% of the time over the previous 4 years, also has a risk/reward ratio of 1/1.5 or longer. You are skewing the odds in your favor. Win or Lose, you understand chance is in your side.

  9. #9
    [quote=bundubill;1460447]
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    It might sound like confusion, but when you learn to read and try to find market conditions rather than management it all fits into a practical picture.

    Hi Kudzu,

    I am a newbie. Would you mind defining'conditions' ?

    Thank you
    Hi Bund,
    I wrote an article on Condition Not Direction. It is in a pdf but too big to upload and I really don't understand how to compress it to upload to FF.
    You may PM me and I'll send it to you.
    Thanks,

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    It's been a long time that I dont listen to market analysts. I have come to the conclusion that nearly all of them got no idea of what they talk about. I listen to my own expertise and my own system.
    I concur with you. . .take today thursday 8 june for instance. . .most techical analysts forecast the market to go up for eur/usd and gbp/usd....and what occurred. . .the market went down. . .and as much as I know there wasn't any market moving news now

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