Trading the NFP this friday - Page 4
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Thread: Trading the NFP this friday

  1. #31
    I ask what determines the Friday NFP is declared? I believed it was the 1st Friday of the month, but were March 3rd and December 1st of the year skipped?

  2. #32
    94933What To Look For With the NFP:

    The NFP is just one of the most important and widely traded economic reports, but every report has to be exchanged in the context of what's been happening in the market.

    8:30'm USD Nonfarm Employment Change Consensus: 75-125K median 100K Previous 92K


    The dollar started to deflate on 10/25, Once the EUR/USD was around 2600 and eventually rose to around 3350 on 12/3. There are lots of reasons for this and I will discuss them at the time. What we want to do now is trade this number successfully, if at all possible.

    The very first thing to look at is the consensus number range and the median. Keep in mind that generally, reports which come out as expected are not excellent to exchange, so is a number beyond the range.

    Next, we need to know the trend alongside some recent support and resistance levels. Evidently, the trend for the dollar was dominating, but if you look in 12/3 until now (as I write this it's 12/7 @ 21.00 GMT), you'll see it's been inside a band from approximately 3350 to 3250. The high price got rejected double as did the low price, so I am identifying these as my resistance and service levels. What does that tell me? The $ bear market is over for now. Only further strong fundamentals will push the Euro higher.

    Next, let us look at exactly what I believe are recent important important fundamentals and I will discuss these separately.

    US production ISM was down ($-). The market expected it to be down and it was lower then consensus. This element makes up around 20 percent of the economy.

    US sevices ISM was up nicely ($ ). This element makes up around 80 percent of the economy. This was also expected to be down, but surprised to the upside. This report helped to finish the $ bear market.

    Trichet's news conference. This wasn't interpeted by the market as being Euro , because the Euro would have risen at least to the resistance level in the event the market had seen it differently and that never happened. The greatest it got to was around 3320. Why did not it go down? The market was waiting for the NFP. So where do we stand?

    Trichet's conference was the fundamental that's pushed the Euro to the edge of the cliff. All it needs now is that last inch or two to discuss. Will that happen? It all depends on the NFP.


    Before contemplating a transaction, you must listen for the revision to the prior month. If the revision doesn't match the course of the month's number, I would not exchange it.The absolute safest thing is to wait for a couple of minutes for assistance or resistance to get broken and not get in right away.


    When the NFP surprises strong (150K or better) and the prior month is revised up, I would look for a break below 3250 prior to going short. If this gets busted, it is going to tell me the market is convinced (for now ) the US economy is too strong to get a rate cut. Watch treasuries too, particularly the 10 yr notice, as that often leads currency. If the NFP surprises weak (below 75K) and the prior month is revised down wait to get a break above 3350 prior to going long and it get there . I would be very careful here.

    Here are the trades from best to worst:

    1. An upward revision along with the NFP stronger afterward consensus (over 150K) is the safest way to exchange it and the best possible trade. There's alot more room for the Euro to go up.

    2. NFP lower then consensus (below 75K) and the prior month is revised . Nevertheless prettty great, just wait for 3350 and be careful with it.

    3. NFP is in consensus along with the revision is up (OK) or NFP in consensus and revision is down (less OK). Wait for support or resistance to break.

    4. NFP is above consensus with no revision or below consensus with no revision.

    Personally, I won't exchange the other possibilities. That is my preference and my plan. Yours risk tolerance may be different. Maybe I will overlook a good opurtunity, maybe not. Good luck.

  3. #33
    94933
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    What To search For With the NFP:

    The NFP is just one of the most essential and broadly traded economic reports, but every report must be traded in the context of what has been happening on the market.

    8:30'm USD Nonfarm Employment Change Consensus: 75-125K median 100K Previous 92K


    The dollar started to deflate on 10/25, when the EUR/USD was around 2600 and eventually climbed to around 3350 on 12/3. There are lots of reasons for this and I will discuss them. What we would like to do now is commerce this amount successfully, if possible.

    The first issue to look at is that the consensus number range and the median. Bear in mind that generally, reports that come out as anticipated aren't good to exchange, therefore the first thing we want is a number outside the range.

    Next, we will need to know the trend along with some recent support and resistance levels. Obviously, the tendency for the dollar has been weakness, but if you look in 12/3 until now (as I write this it's 12/7 @ 21.00 GMT), then you'll see it's been within a group from approximately 3350 to 3250. The large price got rejected did the price, so I am identifying these as my resistance and support levels. What does that tell me? The $ bear market is over for now. Only further fundamentals can push the Euro higher.

    Next, let's look at what I feel are important important fundamentals and I'll discuss them separately.

    US production ISM was down ($-). The market anticipated it to be down and it was reduced then consensus. This component makes up around 20% of the economy.

    US sevices ISM was up nicely ($ ). This element makes up around 80 percent of the economy. This was expected to be down, but surprised to the upside. This report helped to end the $ bear market.

    Trichet's news conference. This was not interpeted by the market as being Euro , since the Euro could have risen at least on the resistance level in the event the market had found it otherwise and that never happened. The greatest it got to was around 3320. Why did not it go down then? The market was waiting for the NFP. So where do we stand now?

    Trichet's conference was the fundamental that's pushed the Euro to the edge of the cliff. All it needs now is that last inch or 2 to discuss. Will that happen? It all depends on the NFP.


    Before contemplating a transaction, you must listen for the revision to the previous month. If the revision doesn't match the course of this month's amount, I wouldn't exchange it.The absolute most powerful thing would be to wait a few minutes for assistance or resistance to get broken rather than get in straight away.


    When the NFP surprises strong (150K or even better ) and also the previous month is revised upward, I would search for a break under 3250 before going short. If it gets broken, it is going to tell me that the market is convinced (for the time being) that the US economy is too strong for a rate cut. Watch treasuries especially the 10 yr notice, as that leads currency. If the NFP surprises weak (under 75K) and also the previous month is revised down wait for a break above 3350 before going long and it get there . I would be very cautious here.

    Here are the transactions from best to worst:

    1. An upward revision and the NFP stronger then consensus (over 150K) is the most economical way to exchange it and the best potential commerce. There's alot more room for the Euro to go up.

    2. NFP reduced then consensus (under 75K) and also the previous month is revised down. Prettty great, simply wait for 3350 and be cautious with it.

    3. NFP is in consensus and the revision is upward (OK) or NFP in consensus and revision is down (less OK). Wait for support or resistance to split.

    4. NFP is above consensus with no revision or under consensus with no revision.

    Personally, I will not exchange the other chances. That is my preference and my plan. Yours risk tolerance might be different. Maybe I'll overlook a fantastic opurtunity, maybe not. Good luck.

    NewstraderFX
    Very well thought out News.

    Sounds like a plan. Think Fast!

  4. #34
    Suppose my purpose is to at least have a strategy and stick with it. Try to preserve a few capitol. If what I said helps someone not lose money, I am glad. Trading is tough enough as it is...

    The only way to beat the market is by understanding what the majority is thinking. I am not sayin I can know that constantly, but allow me to pose this question to anyone who's reading this:

    We all know the Euro and GBP are large. I would bet that alot of people are thinkin hey, begin goin down and this has to turn around. . .IMHO I believe alot of people are thinking this, but no one knows for sure exactly when it is gonna happen. Agree or disagree?

    That's all that I am makin a bet on, that alot of people are thinkin the identical thing and they're awaiting the signal. The powerful ISM braked it, Trichet pushed on the brake and it could throw . This could be the tipping point that I think people are searching for. We all need for a fantastic trade is a powerful revision along with a wonderful powerful number. I am not sayin that's gonna occur, but when it does...

  5. #35
    94933Trichet sign euro negative by his own statements. But still, some other (might be not cereberally challenged ) people keep buying euro. I really don't know this EUR/USD's motion. Efxnews signal euro ought to be abbreviated too. But some people buying it. I think that they will repent it ^^
    I brief eur/usd currently, and waiting for progress.

    Pound has shown many correction (perhaps) to be ready for NFP. I presume, if we base on the ADP information people would start buying dollar speculatively.
    Look for dollar for a little bit stronger before NFP, and if the news is great, dollar rebound continue

  6. #36
    949331 Attachment(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    We all know the Euro and GBP are large. I would wager that alot of people are thinkin hey, start goin down at some stage and this has to turn around. . .IMHO I believe alot of people are believing this, but nobody knows for certain exactly when it is gonna happen. Agree or disagree?
    I had been thinking this way last week and paid dearly for it.

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    We all want for a potentially great transaction is a wonderful powerful number along with a wonderful powerful revision. I am not sayin that's gont occur, but if it will...
    I'm counting only on 2 potential situations:
    Good Number Upward Revision
    or
    Bad Number Downward Revision


    As I promisedI hunted for data to demonstrate how NFP is performing on yearends.
    This is what I got - it does not appear to support Strong Numbers on Yearends; its totally arbitrary!

    So I'm not going to wager anything pre-release time.

    I'd Straddle a market order 30 seconds following the news (giving me time to examine what the data means.)

  7. #37
    94933I'm encouraging BK, as I know to you. . .many countries buying dollar to cover their debts, and I thinkbusiness employers will hire many employees in order to give reliable services from the christmas and new year. . I Believe this will encourage the dollar

  8. #38
    EBC increase trichet speetch an expected NFP going to earn usd little bearish.
    -With NFP over 125k and 4.5 unemployement us little bullish if over 125K and 4.4 unemployment usd powerful bull
    -together with NFP under 100k and 4.4 unemployment USD little bearish if under 100k and 4.5 usd strong bearish

    -SURPRISE powerful NFP over 150k and 4.4-4.3 unemployment
    -SURPRISE bearish NFP beneath 92K and 4.5-4.6 unemployment



    Should G/U break 1.9580. . .see it in 1.9520/50

    MAX G/U range 1.9450 -1.9760

    I predict little BULLISH NFP!

  9. #39
    94933Yap Bullish on USD.I had open position on 1.9684 from last night trade.hmm but I am not actually convince about this nfp.right now the price 1.9585-1.9600 as I type.I really expect the gbp moving down.but is it worth wo risk my 95 pips on this news? Confuse.this is easily the most annoying news up to now within this year.last fomc I did make a fantastic news trade.but that one actually stake my discipline.huaaaaaaaaaaaa.with a few days to holiday, cant endure if I am likely to lose this profit.Dohhh.

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    with yesterday EBC hike trichet speetch an expected NFP going to earn usd little bearish.
    -With NFP over 125k and 4.5 unemployement us small bullish if over 125K and 4.4 unemployment usd powerful bull
    -with NFP below 100k and 4.4 unemployment USD little bearish if under 100k and 4.5 usd strong bearish

    -SURPRISE powerful NFP over 150k and 4.4-4.3 unemployment
    -SURPRISE bearish NFP beneath 92K and 4.5-4.6 unemployment



    Should G/U violate 1.9580. . .see it at 1.9520/50

    MAX G/U range 1.9450 -1.9760

    I call small BULLISH NFP!

  10. #40
    94933Be on your way. . I read efxnews about amounts of tv shows due out now. Some people say it is a indication of NFP amount that is powerful but the editor has their own idea about it. What do you guys think about it ?

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