Thread: Trading the NFP this friday

Previous: 90K
Estimate: 125K
ADP: 158K

Which are the possible results and outcome?

NFP will come out better than 125K and USD rallies.

NFP will come out between 90K and 125K; based on historical charts, some eople trying to win against the spike will brief the USD (since they believe thought the amount is below estimate), while cooler heads will buy USD (since they believe the amount is above previous). Whipsaw will occur.

But last July, ADP conditioned traders for a huge NFP amount and when NFP came out lower than the ADP estimate but greater than previous, USD was shorted. Will we see something similar to that come?

Imagine if the previous 90K was revised upward? Will that be a cause to BUY USD? Based on last 2 NFP revision mastered the day.

Imagine if there's a revision downward?

The market is gearing for a solid number but FED cautioned us to anticipate 100K jobs for the next few more months to come.

Is your market really conditioned for a strong or weak NFP? Depending on the price, its neutral - we are back to before ADP was released.

We must plan our NFP trade day as early as you can. I am looking for the following situations:
1. Upward Revision, NFP gt;125K = BUY USD
2. Upward Revision, NFP lt; 125K, NFPgt;90K = Buy USD
3. Upward Revision, NFP lt; 90K = Whipsaw
4. No Revision, NFP gt; 125K = BUY USD
5. No Revision, NFP gt; 100K, NFP lt; 125K = Whipsaw, Buy USD
6. No Revision, NFP lt; 100K = Brief USD
7. Downward Revision, NFP gt; 125K = Neutral
8. Downward Revision, NFP gt; 100K = Brief USD
9. Downward Revision, NFP lt; 90K = SHORT USD

I personally like to see #1 and 9 come out this friday.

Watch for Revision. Remember, Revision has x2 impact to the current number. A 50K revision is about 100K added into the current number. A -50K could be into the current number.

In the past in which the dollar is overbought or oversold there's been a lot of place Saturdays the day before NFP. Since the dollar is now wildly oversold it is sensible to brief EUR/USD at resistance now (towards 1.335) then you should already be in profit from the time NFP arrives. You can hold the place or reverse it if the news hits.

Originally Posted by ;

We must plan our NFP trade day as soon as possible. I am looking for the following situations:

3. Upward Revision, NFP lt; 90K = Whipsaw
9. Downward Revision, NFP lt; 90K = SHORT USD

I like to see #1 and #9 come out this friday.

What is the difference between upward revision and downward revision?

If the actual is 90K would not be a downward revision from past? Do you understand what the revision is?

Originally Posted by ;

What's the difference between upward revision and downward revision?

When the real is 90K would not that be a downward revision from past? How do you understand what the revision is?

The revision is a change to the previous month's variety. They're an estimate, which later gets revised into the exact number the month when the numbers are released. On Friday we will get the precise number and the estimate of this month of a month . Hence all of Burger King's scenarious...

Thanks.

I hope the banks dont attempt to get more blood during this one on their hands. As I believe that this one is the year's most crucial. It will determine the highs set to this year, and I believe next year. Which will become eventually major resistances. (After the long-term rally has finished, thats exactly what I mean). If we do see a crap NFP... I'd say gbp/usd hits the target right on the spot of 2.020.

In July, the market was preconditioned for a NFP number. And when the NFP came far below the ADP (though still better than preceding number), USD was shorted. (Review Historic Charts)

In August, September, October and November, the market is not preconditioned by ADP as traders were disgusted with July's way away ADP. And traders traded Past vs Actual.

Nowadays, Market seems like being preconditioned once again anticipating a fantastic job number.

What maybe could provide good jobs last month?

US had Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales. When I were a Retail Store preparing for a large day, I'd prepair my shares well and perhaps hire more hands to assist with the sales.

OR push my workers like slaves and have them work additional hours a day for the entire week.

Anybody in USA could confirm if you noticed additional hiring in those retail shops?

In the meantime, I'd try digging up history and see how NFP is doing during year ending.

Damn bk you are doing some serious thinking these days

you know how I commerce, I love to find a tricky movement which goes against the current trend, since that causes widespread pain, and pain makes people do irrational things (as all of us know from personal experience). I see no possibility for pain that this friday, although This really is my scenario.

Where are the players at this time? They are short the dollar! However, this dollar trend remains young, and not everyone is on board. Therefore, if the dollar rebounds on NFP, there'll be sellers there that want to become on the market, but havent however, and these new sellers will sustain the dollar suppression.

So whats the play ? In case the dollar strenthens, I believe you wait for the new sellers to enter and join them. If the dollar weakens I dont find a good play .

Originally Posted by ;

1. Upward Revision, NFP gt;125K = BUY USD
2. Upward Revision, NFP lt; 125K, NFPgt;90K = Buy USD
3. Upward Revision, NFP lt; 90K = Whipsaw
4. No Revision, NFP gt; 125K = BUY USD
5. No Revision, NFP gt; 100K, NFP lt; 125K = Whipsaw, Buy USD
6. No Revision, NFP lt; 100K = Short USD
7. Downward Revision, NFP gt; 125K = Neutral
8. Downward Revision, NFP gt; 100K = Short USD
9. Downward Revision, NFP lt; 90K = SHORT USD

interesting plan you got there BK. Im eager to learn how this ends up...

Originally Posted by ;

damn bk you are doing some serious thinking these days

you know how I trade, I love to find a tricky move which goes against the current trend, because that causes widespread pain, and pain makes people do silly things (as all of us know from personal experience). This really is my situation, but I see no chance of pain that this friday.

Where are the players at this time? They're short the dollar! However, this dollar tendency remains young, and not everybody is on board yet. So if the dollar stinks on NFP, there'll be sellers there who want to get on the market, but havent yet, and those new sellers will maintain the dollar reduction.

So whats the drama ? In case the dollar strenthens, I think you await the new sellers to enter and join them. If the dollar weakens, well, I dont find a good play .

What do you really mean with dollar reduction? Whether the NFP is great, you mean, then the dollar will rally farther and those that are selling the dollars are looking to take profits and join in on the party? Because Bloomberg does not read the revision till later, where can the revision of this NFP print out. . .Where do they receive the data from when its coming across the cables? In case the number is unsatisfactory along with the amendments is upward afterward it gonna whipsaw right?