Trading The quotNormal Statequot - Page 2
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Thread: Trading The quotNormal Statequot

  1. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Or just take a look at the DOW thru-out its history. The huge amount of the time, it is expanding, as is U.S. GDP. Some times are faster or slower, but the depression and every recession since WWII is more then a buying oppurtunity.
    If your purpose is that the US stock market is greater than it had been 100 years ago then congratulations on your discovery.

    The SP500 is only now reaching levels which were established back in 2000. Firstly, you can't tie the GBPJPY to US expansion and secondly, most traders can't maintain a position for a day so what's the purpose of suggesting they need to have held for 7 years?

    The GBPJPY is no greater today than is was in 1999.

  2. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Sounds great, but let us stick to the subject. Prove to me that the regular condition of this economy is not growth.
    I'm on topic. I'm supplying a explanation of the possible relationship of this currency to the Dow

  3. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I am on topic. I am supplying a explanation of the possible relationship of the currency to the Dow
    One of the matches affects the results of others. And so on.

  4. #14
    ON further thought, I can see this will choose the thread away from your discussion, so I will not continue, it's too esoteric. Sorry about that. I am stepping outside now.

  5. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Among those matches affects the results of the others. And so on.
    I really don't think that is the explanation for equities and currency price. But let us review what happened following the NFP.

    The DOW and SP increased. The JPY crosses did. The dollar weakened versus the large yielders and gained on the yen.

    Why will the dollar weaken versus the large yielders once the NFP looks stronger and the fed looks less likely to be lowering rates? Seems like it should go the other way dependent on the fundamentals, however it didn't.

    The reason is because when equities rise, carry trades rise together. And should you trade throughout the obvious times when equities are likely to move and you know the leadership, you know exactly how currency price will alter.

    Should you wait for the times when equities are really moving and avoid short term trading when currency price is walking quietly, it's a lot easier to win in this game. Can anyone know how equities are most likely to move everyday-of course not. However, you can when enough news or information exists, so the real challenge in currency trading is being patient enough to wait for this and avoiding the desire to push the button at all other times.

  6. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    . . .when equities increase, carry trades grow together.
    Please clarify why this happens. The NFP report was a US based report also in the conclusion of the day that the USD was lower than it was prior to the report.

  7. #17

  8. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Take a look
    That's your explanation? CO2 levels rose during the same time. Why not we tie the development in GBPJPY to this?

    Care to throw up some 1999-2004 graphs?

  9. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    You can be skeptical, but it isn't me that is defining the standard state of this market. Or simply take a look at the DOW thru-out its history. The vast quantity of the moment, it's expanding, as is U.S. GDP. Some instances are quicker or slower, but the melancholy and each recession since WWII was more then a buying oppurtunity.
    NewstraderFX - you're advoing:
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    So what I am suggesting is to shoot some lots on GBP/JPY and abandon them no matter what occurs for a very long time. Years. Do not even sell on the corrections, simply buy more and hold that also.
    But elsewhere:
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    And being a casual observer of those markets, becoming from GBP/JPY during (not before) both corrections was really fairly simple, because great reasons existed for the corrections. There certainly were enough signs in August and back in February, when global markets adjusted off the Chinese market, the correction was pretty simple to see to.
    That I happen to agree with the moment, but could never support the first, since there is not any way ahead of knowing how far a'correction' will proceed. As I pointed out, GBP/JPY remains down 50% by the 30 decades back.

    So what sort of time frame is your'years'? 1 year? 10 decades? 20 decades?

    As for the Dow; certain it generally goes up, however on the timeframes you're looking in (very long term) you must check out the many different facets to find out whether or not it is really worth a buy and hold - ranging from the changes that July in short selling principles, to survivorship bias, into the simple fact that it is actively managed, into the fundamental US (and now international) economic fundamentals. Is the US a fundamental buy-and-hold? Possibly from inside the US, but from the outside it certainly isn't. The basic fundamentals that provided so much US power over the previous century are gone - there's no more'free' assets, such as property and oil (and free only in the event that you discount the true price to the original holders); immigration in the actual driving groups of earlier US growth ( materially dispossessed however intellectually/economically aggressive Europeans Asians of all social classes) has pretty much dried up (notice that 2nd generation immigrants have historically been your most economically productive group); formerly subordinate economies (from Europe to China) are now starting to separate from the US motor; and US debt is currently being regarded as a significant risk, especialy beyond the country. The distribution of riches is becoming to a point that previously has demonstrated shaky, what with the top 1% of the population now owning double the quantity of the market as they did in the 60's.

    I am not all doom gloom - that I simply don't see any buy-and-hold as being worth the risk. My own tendency is simply to go for easy appliions of technology analysis for the upcoming few decades - buy dips to intermediate trendlines/resistances, sell on fractures, that sort of thing, and generally stay out of consolidations which are oscillating on tmeframes shorter than one's normal trading interval before the management becomes evident.

    FWIW - I specify my timeframes pretty much as follows:
    1) Scalp = a quickie with someone you pick up at a pub
    2) Daytrade = one night stand
    3) Short-term - a girlfriend
    4) Mid-term - a mistress
    5) Long duration - marriage.

    I favor 3 4...

  10. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I am on topic. I am offering a explanation of the possible connection of the currency into the Dow
    It's not really applicable as it would depend on the dealer (the market) having the ability to adjust the game to just how much money you have on your hand. In that sense it's also not actually a paradox. Notice you can also win the game if everytime you have a multiple of 3 whatevers (when You'd otherwise be forced to play with the losing side of game B), you put one into your retirement account

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