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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Enjoy the ensightful analysis. I am new to some of the language and was wondering what you ment in regards to Eur/Usd when you hit head on descending TL resistence a photo perfect trap bar.
    I meant this one, see attached chart. Thanks for all you guys' fantasies and remarks, I am happy to see people care about other people.

    Gives you all Fantastic luck trading this week along with my best regards,

  2. #22
    Hi, sorry for posting this somewhat late. Seems EJ already jumped London is now currently compensating that already and the gun as everyone was fearful of pro-Yen jawboning which turned out unwarranted.


    FXNotes for 19.11.2006


    Weekly Bar: I4B (by only 10 pips)
    Daily Bar: No clear bar setup. Engulfing, but Open/Close within bar that is prior.
    Arriving at the top of both 1.2910/40 - 1.2470 consolidation range we've been inside of since May, EURUSD once again stalled and faltered. Look for 1.2880 to limit, reduction of 1.2750 might stretch to 1.2640. Loss of 1.2640 threatens consolidation range lower back.
    A close above 1.2900 could rally things higher, but look for signs of stalling between 1.2910-1.3.

    Weekly Bar: I4B by 5-6 pips. Either way is barred by inside.
    Daily Bar: BEOB by 1 pip of closure being lower.
    USDCHF struck on the descending trendline coming in the 13th October high and sold off a solid 110 pips. Since we are in a descending channel and shattered below rising channel support, look for a fracture of 1.2340 to confirm additional downward movement. 1.2300 / / 1.2260 / 1.2190 / 1.2140 areas of support. Keep an eye on 1.2188 as loss of this could prove critical and may observe a peek at 1.1830.
    Should we break to the upside down, watch 1.2560 and 1.2640 resistance.
    Close and basing above 1.2750 would put us involving 1.3275 and 1.2750, however this situation seems highly unlikely. Near term range may possibly be 1.2190-1.2750, alternatively 1.2640 minor range.

    Weekly Bar: Stunted bullish bar/close to a poor pin bar.
    Daily Bar: Bearish trap pub but close is under prior days range.
    thinking about the prior day was an inside bar and the move above 1.6000 didn't hold, we might just see this selloff last without so much as another glimpse above 1.5965.
    Target 1.5858 to get a tight range and basing to get a retry bigger, if this fails 1.5800 / 1.5750.
    Should 1.5920 hold again, we might be in for another run higher.
    Keep in mind that these are fairly lofty levels either way.

    Weekly Bar: Not a good bearish bar / close at the prior weeks low.
    Daily Bar: Bullish outdoor bar.
    1.8840-60 toggle / support held and pivoted matters back higher again following an inside bar of indecision and another retest. We are now sitting at the prior week's range low and may return to this. But, 1.8950-75 retains resistance and also we might observe whippy action until a decisive outcome is created. 1.9030 / 1.9100 next high resistance.
    Reduction of 1.8860 should see 1.8750 support retested, 1.8630 under that.

    Weekly Bar: Doji / Neutral bar. Open and close almost equivalent (7 pips).
    Daily Bar: Disjointed bearish bar.
    Price was a wreck. Certainly 151.45 has proven too tough resistance to break for now, however 150.60 and 150.80 have provided support too. This range suggests that we ought to observe a decision to a single side shortly, but beware. An expected fake out lower to 150.25 could reverse and rally to make a new high at 151.60-70. The lower alternate to this is 149.60 which holds a high potential for change back higher.
    A reduction of this exact crucial level risks a return to 147.60-75 support.

    Weekly Bar: Not quite a neutral or inside bar, low 5 pips lower than prior week, high inside week.
    Daily Bar: Not quite a bearish outside bar, open and close within prior bar.
    USJPY has been ranging recently and unable to proceed below 117 / 116.60 support, nor over 118.30-60 resistance. On a move higher look out for 118.90 to supply more resistance before 119.30-50.
    Support at 116.15, 115.40-75 key.

    Weekly Bar: Bullish snare bar into 38.2% retracement and 0.7625 PP.
    Daily Bar: Open/Close within prior bar, same low. Stopped bashful of 0.7694 PP.
    AUDUSD appears to be indicating it has done it is part fixing and is ready to go bigger again.
    However, as it has failed to move decisively back 0.7700 to reattempt the 0.7767 large, keep a close eye on it as reduction of 0.7625 could bring it down to 0.7560 again.

    XAUUSD / Gold
    Weekly Bar: I4B
    Daily Bar: Perhaps not a snare nor bullish bar. Open/close in earlier, low in prior range.
    Gold has perhaps shown most obviously what is bothering FX currently: lack of leadership.
    Having managed a rise back over 600-606$, it stalled only 30$ higher at 636$ and has since been ranging from 612-630$. Maybe this range might expand to 606-640$ and encounter resistance from thereon. Gold bulls might be somewhat more careful this time around after the selloff this year we saw.

  3. #23
    With the Gbp/Usd having a bullish daily bar what exactly do we look for in regards to a split out. Currently it has been channeling between 1.8960 (Fridays High has been 1.8966) and 1.8931 (1.8935 is 23.6 fib retracement of Friday's low and high. The prior weeks point is 1.8977.

  4. #24
    About the Euro weekly what does I4b mean by 10 pips only. I have begun reading the James 16 chart on page 83 backwards and 35 forwards.

  5. #25
    Did cable just open 100 pips greater? Oh my...

    Anyway, here is the prognosis, although there isn't that much to say, actually, is there?

    Calling s/r amounts is feeling somewhat stupid lately as a lot are clustering. . .need to refine that in any stage.

    EJ went pretty much according to plan as written below too.

    Good luck with your trading!


    FXNOTES 26.11.2006

    Weekly: Bullish bar.
    Daily: Bullish bar.
    We are finally out of the 500 pip range we were stuck in since April. We can possibly see the EURCHF fate now, which can be a stalling and correction, or we could hold a test of breakout place across 1.2940-80 and base above it and set a new higher range. Considering that the american market was basically on hold, we could see a joining of this frenzy or a change.
    A reduce support is in the 38.2% which is 1.2870, 50% falls on 1.2800. Start looking for clues at or near these levels for weakness or renewed buying when we return back here.

    Weekly: Bearish bar.
    Daily: Bearish bar.
    We are presently in the reduced range of USDCHF support for 2006. Not if the move were to ch on and since June have been so low, we could make new lows for 2006 quick. 1.2038 has some support, 1.915, 1.1868, 1.1696 more. 1.1479 below that. Immediate resistance lies in 1.2180-90, 1.2360 higher up and then 1.2385-1.2400. Same comments as for EURUSD apply.

    Weekly: Bearish bar. (last weeks awful snare has seemingly activated after all)
    Daily: Hit TL support and may be a pin bar.
    The rebound out of TL support was feeble, but there nevertheless. Goal 1.5858 did not hold and turned into resistance on the descent, near 1.5800 and TL appears to have stopped it for the time being. Whether or not this support holds we will see soon. If a return above 1.5858 is viewed, this could signal a return back up a little.
    Stay wary though, we might have a renewed break and have this move lower arrive somewhere near / just under 1.5600 in the medium term.

    Weekly: Bullish bar.
    Daily: Bullish bar.
    As already written in the last FXNotes, crucial toggle in 1.8860 pushed and held price back up. Interim minor resistance in 1.8960 turnd to support once we shut above it and was the starting ground for a move some 390 pips greater to roughly the 127.2% Fib of the previous range of 1.8515-1.9177 which resides near 1.9350.
    Whether this is just a channel on the far higher or if we are due a major correction is still unclear.
    Please notice we shut on March 2005 highs. Going from this, resistance could be in 1.9360 which just stopped us1.9500 and 1.9550. 1.9600 next. Prices at these amounts are very likely to come under political scrutiny soon.

    Weekly: Bullish engulfing candle / outdoor bar.
    Daily: Bullish bar.
    Well nicely. Against jawboning and all pressure, EJ has once again gone and made new highs.
    If this were not from a period of absence of one of the biggest markets, the 151-151.15 place would probably make a good long entry prospect. Considering that gt; 150.00 prices in EJ have been a political issue earlier, but not as aggressively handled as many have believed, the matter still remains tricky.
    If you are bold, go with what price lets you know, if you are wary of intervention, steer clear of this one.
    Please note that what unfolded was precisely what I tried to warn of the past time:
    A possible fake out reduced to 150.25 could reverse and rally to generate a new high at 151.60-70.
    We ended up cutting out the descent short somewhat at 150.35 and made our high as anticipated in 151.73.

    Weekly: Bearish bar.
    Daily: Poor bearish bar.
    Oddly enough, following first exhibing further signs of strength, the Yen is currently apparently the very first to start wavering again. This may stem from the crosses, but this is something worth noting yet.
    We broke away and landed directly on our previously mentioned crucial support region, at 115.40-75. 150.59 was the low made. We broke below trendline support that was holding us previously and we might see this descent move all of the way to 113.35. Stations of little support on the way start at 115.00 from 00 lineup and TL support along with 161.8% range fib extension, could extend up to 114.75. 114.25 has some more, then the next real significant degree is 113.35 as a toggle for a potential descent to contain price is earlier over 113 range.
    Resistance at preceding support factors turned resistance gt;gt; 116.15, 116.80, 117.15-30, 118.15-30.

    Weekly: Bullish Bar.
    Daily: Bullish Bar.
    AUDUSD did what it signalled a week: it climbed. A last touch in the former descending trendline resistance now turned support at 0.7675, also near 23.6% fib and some of June/Julys per week highs, and off it went.
    Resistance came in at the May high in 0.7790 and that is where we sit now.
    We have not closed above it however, so caution is justified as with the rest of the pairs.
    As we do, expect this region to become support along with a challenge of 0.7860, above that 0.7940.
    Should we fall back into the previous range, supports are 0.7700, 0.7670, 0.7615, 0.7590.

    Weekly: Bullish bar.
    Daily: Bullish bar.
    Seems the direction has been discovered for now. The I4B broke into the upside and made a new high near 640$ for now. If we can swing it 650$ / 654$ / 660$ / 675$ will be the areas of resistance.
    Supports should be 612$/607$/604$.

  6. #26
    I do not think I'll be making an additional FXNotes for this week/month.
    All around are simply bullish/bearish pubs for whatever, really.
    One exception is AUDUSD (pin bar) and Goldso we might be seeing first signs of fatigue from this rally the coming week.
    Don't fight the trend, but allow it signal you when it's over, too.
    I will Concentrate on AUDUSD and Await the others to develop.

    Good luck, I hope someone was smart(or stupid in a fantastic way) and proficient enough to ride a few hundred of those pips.

    Best wishes,

  7. #27
    Today will have a diminished version, for 2 reasons.

    One is I am beginning to realize that analysis will not replace the true trading. It does help to provide a general framework of reference, but the true daily transactions and trading responses seem to be important.
    And that boils down to plogical facets, not only technical analysis.

    2 - it is simply very time consuming and lately it has become somewhat less intriguing to attempt the outguessing of the market beforehand.
    Because there's really no need. All around the forum fundamentalists and TA fans alike keep on attempting to predict that and forecast that, give gazillions of motives....and half end up being correct and half end up being incorrect.
    The very simple solution still remains: Trade what you see, not what you believe.
    It's on everyone's chart.

    So regardless of how well I will lay things out here, if the market isn't in the mood for it, then it can only do the contrary, BUT it will constantly give clues as to exactly what it is doing, simply by moving.
    Maybe it is only a case of going on, but because I have done this mainly for myself, I see this as a good sign and hope that these are all evolutionary steps that may eventually lead me to consistent trading success.

    Discipline, endurance and persistence are all.

    My very best wishes and decent luck to all you,


    FXNOTES 10.12.2006

    General Remarks:
    Following a strongly trending week of dollar selloff, we seem to have struck a first line of protection and insecurity for the dollar bears, as all last week has been corrective in nature.
    Even though the initial reaction to the NFP result caused an anti-dollar spike, dollar buyers suddenly swooped back from the blue and sold off 20 percent of their current 7 week upmove in the EURUSD in a single day.
    This may not bode well for dollar shorts - but it may also just be collective profit taking because the former high made proved too much to handle after some okay dollar figures went out over the newswires throughout the week.

    Weekly: Produced a bearish bar after gapping greater .
    Daily: Bearish outdoor bar ( faked out the IB high first, then broke it reduced ).

    For the dollar bears - look for indications of an end for this correction around 1.3114 - 1.3155, below that anticipate a deeper correction, possibly all of the way down to 1.2900-1.2945.
    Dollar bulls - await a return near the 1.3250 - 1.3275 level for attempts of shorts from thereabouts.

    Weekly: Bullish Bar.
    Daily: Bullish outdoor bar ( faked out that the IB low first, then broke it large ).

    Inverted to the EURUSD as consistently. 1.885 support held and apulted price back over 1.2000.
    This is on the 61.8% fib retracement in the 1.1300 - 1.3250 rise.
    If we reclaim this amount for return and good above 1.2270 / 1.2300 handle, then we may observe a continued recovery of the dollar all the way up to 1.3760.
    To receive long, see price movement close to 1.1985 / 1.1965 / 1.1930 for signs of reversal long in the event of a retrace.
    To get short dollar watch for a confirmed breach of the 1.1830-1.1885 support area, together with 1.1725 being the upcoming big hurdle to consider as the .786 retracement to be broken up. Extends to about 1.1670 support.
    Undearneath that look for a retest of the November 2004 lows at 1.1360 and lower.

    Weekly: Bearish bar / Indoors bar.
    Daily: Bearish outdoor bar.

    Cable has been soft all week and is now confronting 200 points of potential support lines.
    We already reached the 23.6% retracement and it appears likely we could see 1.9340 in the 38.2% as well.
    1.9180 in 50% holds some additional support.
    Anticipate 1.9610 - 1.9675 to possess resistance on a retrace, approximately 1.9715 ought to be the key pivot here.
    Play your egy accordingly.

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