Thread: $ For The Week Of 10/16-With Some Trade Tips

Originally Posted by ;

Ok today we can get into a money management discussion -

if you would like to put up 10 percent of your account within this trade, that is OK but it's a question of how you're gonna do it. If you've got 2500 in your account and you are willing to risk the 250, just how many lots are gonna buy? How do you see the upside ?

Let's talk about a GBP/USD commerce first.

Should you buy 1 lot (100k=$10 position) you only have 25 pips to play with before you're stopped out. You have virtually no opportunity to succeed with this in my own opinion; you'll get stopped out and that'll be this, unless you've got the most incredible chance.

Just about 1 mini lot (10k=$1 place )? I believe that is too small. I don't think you're gonna want a 250 pip cushion here, and that means that you can go bigger.

5 minis-50k-gives you 50 pips to perform with. . .still not in my opinion.

2 or 3 minis appears about right to me. . .gives you between 125 and 83 pips cushion. Personally I'd go with 3 myself, since there's no considerable US fudamental information due out prior to the FOMC following Wed..

I'd still wait for the British GDP tomorrow prior to entering this transaction. If it's positive for the pound, take the long position and hold on thru next Wed at the least. . .but only at these levels due to the longer term transaction.

On the upside, given a favorable GDP, using a rate incr secured for sterling and not one for the $, I will see 150-200 pips . Opinions?

Buy a dip or buy a rest egy. I agree. Either way, GBPUSD will move upward later. USD is simply too neglected viewing how unfavorable would be the variables concerning USD.


Last Jul, UK GDP came out 0.1% improved and GBPUSD spiked up only to return back to normal level. GBPUSD rose finally around 6AM...

Last week, UK GDP arrived at par with anticipation and nothing much happened immediately. . GBPUSD eventually rose 50 pips by 6AM...

Last Sep, UK GBP cae outside 0.1% lower and GBPUSD spiked down only to return back to normal level. GBPUSD still managed to climb up 20 pips by 7AM...

???
A poor UK number did not dent GBP back then? Oh yah, USD was simply too feeble to hold water back then.

Same situation as today?

ADDENDUM:
GBPUSD is currently trading withn 1.8760 and 1.8780 movely above 1.8770s. It has tested the support 1.8760 twice. First at Asia instant at London Open.

Viewing it for further development.

Dre DO come true!

I shorted the Dollar in favour of GBP @ 1.8780 until NY cut yesterday believing that all these good US news didn't good to USD so I presume it was totally bye bye USD....

GBPUSD is currently at 1.8850! I'm targetting 1.8900, afterward 1.8950.
This is actually the very best LIVE exchange so far!

Due to all the men and women who contributed fundamental information like NewsTrader, abobtrader, Rick Santelli (CNBC). Your disagreements, tidbits were all

OK did pretty well off the Brit GDP. . .it was in the 50's, until it started droppin back and I got out in the low 30's so I got about 35 pips profit. . .overall that the report was worth about 60 pips. I would have got out earlier, but I kept thinkin it would return. Still not a bad transaction to finish the week on.

I've a miniature position (extended GBP) out of 8780 that I am hopin to have the ability to stay in all of the way until the BoE annouces the rate. That is a long-term fundamental play on the diverging rates between the $ the pound. I am placing 80 pips online from 8780 so I still have alot of room here. . .but again, the amount of money is small so I can not get hurt.

Again the idea of fundamental trading in the short term would be to be a weathervane. . .change management as the fundamental end stinks. . .have no serious positions based on where I think things are moving. . .just go with them for the short term...

I got it in 1.8780 and got out to the second attack up @ 1.8850
So that makes it a complete swing (less a pip or two). Too bad I did not fade down it... of course I cant - I dont even know it will drop to 1.8800


What disturbs me is what I hell happened to EURUSD? It fell back down? Dont tell me USD sentiment is awaken????

Originally Posted by ;

I've decided to try a hedge on the GBP, with a very small lot number and a 20 pip stop loss with no limit. We'll see how it goes. The worst I can lose is $10 per transaction ($20 max)

Not sure what you have in your account, however the 20 pip stop loss is a waste of time in my opinion. For this type of long-term play-you want like 80 pips to play with so you might have to correct your lot size so if you want to be able to remain with this...

I concur newstrader, a fundamental medium or long-term trade with a tight stop is carrying an extremely speculative punt. At the other extreme Buffet rode his long cable trade from the 1.90's down to mid 1.875 and apparently all the way back up again. Fundamental trades need to breathe, and also the degree to which you draw your width is dependent upon your time horizon. As soon as you have your egy figured, your trade size could be'backed out' - almost automatically - without thinking twice.

What he meant was rather of straddling, he would go LONG and SHORT in the same time then place 20 pips SL before the news...

The problem with this egy is in case the news is really a dud inducing less than 20 pips 2 x spread of move...

Originally Posted by ;

I concur newstrader, a fundamental medium or longterm commerce with a tight stop is carrying a highly speculative punt. In the other extreme Buffet rode his lengthy cable commerce from the 1.90's down to mid 1.875 and apparently all of the way up again. Fundamental trades need to breathe, and also the level to which you draw your width depends on your time horizon. Really, once you have your egy guessed, your trade size can be'backed out' - almost automatically - without thinking twice.

I thought Buffet lost a sizable amount of money?

Originally Posted by ;

What he meant was rather of straddling, he would go LONG and SHORT at precisely the exact same time then set 20 pips SL prior to the news...

The problem with this egy is if the news is really a dud inducing less than 20 pips 2 x disperse of transfer....

Is there any advantage in this over the straddle? It feels like you are spending twice the spread for no good reason. Could not it be the exact same to have a buy/sell order at the amount of the SL with no hedge, for the exact same vulnerability? Correct me if I am wrong here.

BK dude, I believed Buffet never shut out his out-of-the-money USD trades, but this is from memory, which that I might be wrong.

Originally Posted by ;

Can there be any advantage in this over the straddle? It seems as if you are spending twice the spread for absolutely no great reason. Could not it be the exact same to have a buy/sell order at the level of the SL with no hedge, for the exact same exposure? Correct me if I am wrong here.

Straddling and Hedging (from the above example) are just two schools of though for undecided news trading.

The greater part of Straddling is you dont pay x2 the spread.
The greater part of Hedging is that you're able to input the market much earlier when spread is still lower until the broker expands disperse. Though you may seem to pay x2 the spread, but the decrease spread makes up for it.

I personally do not enjoy the hedge egy:
1) I'd require x2 the equity and most news traders frequently wager as much as they account can so hedging is completely not in their books (I dont bet all my money. . Just a fraction is risked so I dont belong in this thinking. .)
2) I want to control/watch/observe two orders... makes it hard to find out which is loosing...

One problem with Straddle is delayed implementation of orders. Many brokers are delaying execution like the market could have reversed already and it would hvae been tough chance we were not able to shut it when it was still in black. For example, last Philly Fed, my market order was delated and once I watched it filled, it was 3 minutes afterwards and when the market is trending down again... So in the end, I stopped with a few pips profit (any later and its a reduction ). . But when I moved hedge, I could have observed the orders immedialtey and could control when to shut them...