Some silly ways of looking at P/L - Page 2
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Thread: Some silly ways of looking at P/L

  1. #11
    My preference is to make use of the account balance.

    That you put it very well:. . .success is finally about being internet long while price is climbing, and internet while it#8217;therefore falling,.

    Encapsulated as such:

    Keep what you have and get what you may

    Simple is better, but do not ask me. I know nothing.

  2. #12
    Hanover - entirely unimpressed by the title. Silly has no place in it! You are spot on with your own comments.

    I believe that for the'zen' of trading, you need to consider all these views at precisely the exact same time. They are all variants on a theme, which is the best way to view risk and profit.

    I believe past profits of the prior week as potential'profits to be dropped', but I really would not wish to dip into them very far. Later in the week, if I have made some profits (closed transactions, not open ones), I shall emotionally use that as my buffer and not wish to give more than 20-50% of these.

    For open transactions, I have had to learn to ignore the'profits' revealing on the table and emotionally only tally in which my SL's are put. For my top/leader transactions, that do not have SL's, they're in my prospective reduction box (even if they're showing a profit), since they market can (and often does) pull and turn them inside-out.

    It's like learning to drive a vehicle on the motorway, in which you have a sense of who's next for you, supporting you (and how close) and the car(s) facing you in precisely the exact same time. New drivers will be focusing mostly on just the car ahead of them, or just the car behind them, or just the one next to them (that veered a little too close) and that's often when difficulties arise.

    Great ribbon. :-)

  3. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    However in fact, I don't possess a crystal ball, and unless I've an analysis technique which pinpoints directional bias in the current point, I've an approx 50/50 likelihood that I will profit or lose pips henceforth.
    . . .and this is a great description of this length, breadth, width required if YOU do the 1st step - shift YOUr perception system -
    https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/cryp...sting-mt4.html

  4. #14
    I have been a forum reader for some time, this eventually prompted me to post.

    I really do believe that utilizing a method in which you constantly gauge trade continuation probabilities is the ideal alternative. I use machine learning how to evaluate the probability of trade results at every point of a trade. Say I open a trade, every 15 minute pub I train machine learning methods utilizing the examples of similar previous price action and that I evaluate the probability of positive and negative continuations. If the probability that the trade goes against me becomes big I close a situation, if it is still favorable I continue to hold this (why can you close something which has a positive expectation?) .

    Clearly there is a lot to the above, different machine learning methods can agree/disagree, so it's actually more complied than that make it seem . Nevertheless you are helped by machine learning methods a lot . By way of example last Friday I was holding a profitable open brief trade along with the machine learning analysis accurately forecast that there would be a 3x increase in volatility during the following pub (the NFP release) and the probability of a substantial down turn was big. Before what would have been a whole reversal of my trade, I therefore shut the position. The above would have been evident to traders without the machine learning, that I give it but the learning methods capture similar phenomena that may not be obvious.

    I will open a thread going forward about this topic if people are interested in learning how this is done.

  5. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Hanover - completely unimpressed from the name. Silly has no place within it! You are spot on with your own comments. Good thread. :--RRB-
    Yes exactly and based on this I am guessing he's an intelligent, intelligent, fantastic heart individual with low self love.

  6. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Yes exactly and based on this I'm imagining he is a smart, intelligent, good heart person with low self worth.
    Thank you for your positive comments.

    Maybe I should have put the word ridiculous inside speech marks. I was working on the premise that mindsets #2 and #3 would look silly to many traders, who have invested their careers steeped in mindset.

  7. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I've been a quiet forum reader for a little while, this finally prompted me to post. I do believe that using a method is your best option. I use machine learning how to assess the likelihood of trade outcomes . Say I start a trade, every I train several machine learning approaches using the examples of similar price action and I assess the probability of positive and negative continuations. If the probability that...
    Would love a thread on this topic.

    For a newbie my principal difficulty appears to be understanding when to remain in a trade and when to depart, any aid or different method of looking at this would be more than beneficial.

  8. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Would like a thread on this issue. As a newbie my problem appears to be knowing when to remain in a trade and when to exit, any aid or different way of looking at this could be beneficial.
    I have already started a thread on machine learning here. We may eventually reach the topic of construction models to determine trade continuation probabilities (though it may take a little while!) .

  9. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    quote Thanks for your positive comments. I should have put inside speech marks. I worked on the premise that mindsets #2 and #3 might seem silly to many traders, who have invested their careers steeped in mindset #1.
    Personally, I don't want to pigeonhole myself to any one egory. I tend to be lots of things. And I have never considered the mindset nuances you've expounded.

    But strangely enough, after studying and re-reading your OP article, I find that I'm 100% Mindset 3, gravitated from Mindset 1 since my novice days, and locating Mindset 2 completely foreign to me.

    Interesting. To me anyhow.

    Good thread!

  10. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    ...I discover that I am 100% Mindset 3....
    Excellent!

    I feel that mindset #3 is something similar to a'zen' country, where the trader gets entirely focused on the market, rather than basing his conclusions on the outcomes of previous transactions, or his P/L.

    I see it as being a little like blackjack, where the correct play is always to play with the cards in front of you, and the relevant probabilities; it has nothing to do with the result of former palms, or your P/L for the session.

    The market takes no cognizance of the trader's P/L, therefore there's no mathematical edge in making P/L-based decisions. Some folk will argue with that, however I feel it's accurate, and I think that being overly P/L-focused is a big reason why many new traders fail. Seneca_pilot sums it up thus:
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Trading is not about money. Trading is all about making the correct decisions. You will make money if you create the decisions. You will always make poor decisions, Should you pursue money.
    I am trying to work toward mindset #3 myself. The idea is straightforward ; existentially, it's not so simple.

    Cheers profits,
    David

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