Who am I?
I'm, a nobody with fire in Currency Market and investing generally. My experience is limited with a few years and not much success (therefore, this should be a warning sign for those hoping super star trading, so it isn't here).
How Can I trade? I look at market sentiment, and attempt to guess where market participant wants to attract this market to. It is all discretionary, using tools like Yahoo Finance, Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC tv, forexsoutheast.asia, etc etc.. So no need explanation there, I really don't have any exact method, I attempt quantifying many things like interest rate expectation, equity market, a bit on bond. Ok, I will just stop there. Please don't get me wrong, I'm not doing anything fancy and complex, I don't even understand much of the stuff. Only try my best understanding a few of the basic situation and in the long run, I simply guess what could occur, and what has good chance to take place. I use some simple tech/chart analysis to find good enough entrance to protect me from large drawdowns and losers. Still direction that I select is based on measure 1. I enjoy SMA, utilize them asâ€bouncing†amounts and I detect where price are cluttering and hurrying through. I draw Fib lines once in a while. Standard trend line and stations. I tried some fancy stuff too but simply to check my commerce or to amuse myself when I am sitting waiting for a commerce thought to develop. OK for all those with mechanical commerce and tech junkie, I don't mean disrespect; it's only I have never been able to uncover the way of using these indiors effectively. And as a very simple guy, I've just twoâ€handsâ€, so I must choose the tools that I will be using, not to use all of them. In this manner, it is possible to say that I'm learning to use new indiors, to fulfill those long hours and stop me from triggering unnecessary trades because of boredom. Trade #1
Long GBP/JPY
Price is ranging and may break from range quite soon. The reason why I pick upside? G/U has dropped lots of value since 2.11xx high. And now people are realizing that it is not so bad after all, so push the price all the way here 1.9900. I think any upside is going to be quite limited for G/U, max to 2.0000-2.0100. U/J however has lots of potential as JPY isn't that rock solid either. A lot of unwinding has happened and I really don't see more coming up. As price retraces up, more unwinding will occur, I expect that cap to be around 110.00-112.00. And Japan/BOJ needs weak yen and they'll help make it happen. Uncertainty remains there, but people are much more prepared than previously, so I really don't see many surprises that can push down U/J much.
My target for G/J = G/U 2.0000 x U/J 110.00 = 220.00
Risks are everywhere and when USD gets many surprising bad news, it could be a double whammy because GBP now often follow USD awful news. An accelerated down movement could be triggered easily. I enjoy 209.20 because it was close to last low of those few days rally up.
Summary:
Entrance: Long GBP/JPY @ 212.20 1 lot.
First T/P 220.00, S/L 209.20 (these may change, I will post the upgrade ).