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Thread: GT Journal

  1. #1
    Who am I?
    I'm, a nobody with fire in Currency Market and investing generally. My experience is limited with a few years and not much success (therefore, this should be a warning sign for those hoping super star trading, so it isn't here).

    How Can I trade? I look at market sentiment, and attempt to guess where market participant wants to attract this market to. It is all discretionary, using tools like Yahoo Finance, Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC tv, forexsoutheast.asia, etc etc.. So no need explanation there, I really don't have any exact method, I attempt quantifying many things like interest rate expectation, equity market, a bit on bond. Ok, I will just stop there. Please don't get me wrong, I'm not doing anything fancy and complex, I don't even understand much of the stuff. Only try my best understanding a few of the basic situation and in the long run, I simply guess what could occur, and what has good chance to take place. I use some simple tech/chart analysis to find good enough entrance to protect me from large drawdowns and losers. Still direction that I select is based on measure 1. I enjoy SMA, utilize them as”bouncing” amounts and I detect where price are cluttering and hurrying through. I draw Fib lines once in a while. Standard trend line and stations. I tried some fancy stuff too but simply to check my commerce or to amuse myself when I am sitting waiting for a commerce thought to develop. OK for all those with mechanical commerce and tech junkie, I don't mean disrespect; it's only I have never been able to uncover the way of using these indiors effectively. And as a very simple guy, I've just two”hands”, so I must choose the tools that I will be using, not to use all of them. In this manner, it is possible to say that I'm learning to use new indiors, to fulfill those long hours and stop me from triggering unnecessary trades because of boredom. Trade #1

    Long GBP/JPY
    Price is ranging and may break from range quite soon. The reason why I pick upside? G/U has dropped lots of value since 2.11xx high. And now people are realizing that it is not so bad after all, so push the price all the way here 1.9900. I think any upside is going to be quite limited for G/U, max to 2.0000-2.0100. U/J however has lots of potential as JPY isn't that rock solid either. A lot of unwinding has happened and I really don't see more coming up. As price retraces up, more unwinding will occur, I expect that cap to be around 110.00-112.00. And Japan/BOJ needs weak yen and they'll help make it happen. Uncertainty remains there, but people are much more prepared than previously, so I really don't see many surprises that can push down U/J much.

    My target for G/J = G/U 2.0000 x U/J 110.00 = 220.00

    Risks are everywhere and when USD gets many surprising bad news, it could be a double whammy because GBP now often follow USD awful news. An accelerated down movement could be triggered easily. I enjoy 209.20 because it was close to last low of those few days rally up.

    Summary:
    Entrance: Long GBP/JPY @ 212.20 1 lot.
    First T/P 220.00, S/L 209.20 (these may change, I will post the upgrade ).

  2. #2
    Trade 1: reduction JPY 300pips

    Trade two:
    Sell NZD/USD @ 0.7720
    Potential stop loss level 0.7950
    Potential take profit level 0.7650, 0.7550, 0.7400

    We will see how it plays out. I'll post whenever I pick for SL ot TP.

  3. #3
    Trade 3
    Add brief to NZD/USD 0.7870
    SL: 0.7950

    I discovered that in the event that you fade my transactions so far, you will make decent cash

  4. #4
    We close #2 @ 0.7660, for 60pips, less spread (about 18 or so).

    Keep commerce #3 (short n/u 0.7870) open, idea TP 0.7550, SL 0.7800

    I'm thinking of adding short n/u around 0.7750

  5. #5
    Chart

    Points to Notice:

    1. In previous couple of days, it is desperately clinging to lower line of the rising station (you can see the entire picture in the event that you zoomed out a bit), but finally failed today after RBNZ rate hold and comment. As it extended way back to 2007 down it was an important station.

    2. Now, the down station from Feb'08 is back in control, maybe targeting 0.7500, a proven S/R degree as well as a very nice number. Also, it was important as, around.75-.77 where RBNZ attempted to interfere with the kiwi rate, thus we are a very interesting point. If NZ starts cutting rate one meeting after another, we can see 0.7000 real fast.

    Just how we play this?
    For one spot market is good, but swap points are pricey for short position. We can buy a put option or sell call. Add barrier combos for quick get in-get out.


  6. #6
    We TP on trade #3, only minutes ago @ 0.7550, for 320pips less swaps.

    For the time being, I'm flat and viewing to go long on NZDUSD instead. Thought is about 0.7500 or 0.7400, and then when this trade is shown to be good, I will manage it by selling a call option since we're collecting swaps. All is dependent upon how the fundies and techies push it in coming days. I'll be seeing and post the trade here.

  7. #7
    Chart, to determine where we're compared to weeks ago.

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