marketsinside on major currency pairs
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Thread: marketsinside on major currency pairs

  1. #1
    Hi there folks

    I will post here my analyses and forecasts of a few of the most traded currencies (Euro, US Dollar, British Pound, Swiss Frank, Japanese Yen, Australian Dollar.

    The methodology I use is technical analysis, Elliott wave theory and sentiment indiors.

  2. #2
    The first and most important point, that I wish to start using - financial markets are not rational. They are plogical. They are driven by emotions. Each of the formulas used to calculate human behavior in town mall do not apply here. The simple understanding of the system The third wave trader would be, which financial markets are driven by natural laws and phenomena like fractal structure of organic systems, and herd instinct in the crowd. This is the main and most important condition for comprehending the following methodology. If the first couple of paragraphs seem ridiculous and incredible for you, there's absolutely no point reading . So...

    The description below is suppose to become theoretical. Markets in clinic have different cases and scenarios. Real examples are found at the free articles.

    Simply to briefly describe how and why the idea is well worth paying attention. Assuming that markets move in five steps forward and three steps back, and the abstract image looks like this:

    (pic 1)

    This signifies an spontaneous five, according to Elliott Wave principle.

    Wave 1 - The beginning of the shift. Or this is the second when mob plogy has been long enough at one extreme and the time has come to change its direction along with the emotions. First waves normally form gradually due to reluctance among the participants. In other words, these would be the initial weeks after your connection with a new and interesting individual. Hesitation, uncertainty, interest. These are the feelings which we hold in this situation. So much fun once you understand that the market acts in precisely the same way during initial waves.

    Wave 2 - The older influence. The preceding trend and preceding emotions are still very robust and leads to need for returning to the previous management. Typically, second waves are extremely sharp and deep, in hope that the prior trend is not yet over. Now back to this individual. When you start to understand new individual, you see his strong and weak sides, and that automatically makes you step away. It's the desire not to change anything on your own. Fear of new items. Whether we understand it or not, this happens to almost everyone in our everyday lives, in our social life. And the market does this.

    Wave 3 - New fad. Note that this is the moment once the market clearly shows that it has shifted its direction. There's no doubt about it. Everything is very powerful, fast, company and sometimes even explosive. It's difficult not to recognize a third tide. They are the longest and most volatile. They are the second once the market stinks and shows that the older tendency is already forgotten. Typically, media analysts also declare that we've a new tendency, namely towards the conclusion of this third wave. In everyday life, this is the stage in which the new individual comes into our lives and it clearly becomes a part of it. He changes us, influences us, makes us to be happy, or the opposite. Here we've lost control of our anxieties.

    Wave 4 - Calm after storm. As I already mentioned, third waves carry enormous charge and when it breaks and develop, market participants will need to rest and take some air. Here we know in which direction is the fad, but the participants start to hesitate how long will it last. And once we allow the a new individual to enter our own life and also alter who we are, we need to hesitate. To think what is happening. Who we were and what we become. This is a step away act. Desire air.

    Wave 5 - Depletion. Throughout fourth waves market participants have fluctuated for a long time and their behavior has been hesitative, unconsciously the crowd makes the decision to continue the current direction and to move the market to a new extreme. But this motion is the final exhaustion, before altering the direction again. In everyday life this is the moment once we've had enough of this new individual, we understand him well (we believe ) and take him for granted. He's not interesting for us. As cynical as it sounds, that really happens. In most cases.

    All these are the five stages of an urge. The metaphors with our daily life are likely not the greatest, but... for I can't consider something greater. It's better to mention that financial markets have a fractal structure. It usually means that interior wave 1 has a structure that consists of five waves. Just to remind one of this instance with the structure of a tree - structure of a few of its leaves has the same structure as the entire tree.

    The third wave trader seeks to take part on the market during third waves. Here's a picture again.


    The time for opening a position is the time when the price breaks the cover of the wave 1. Appropriate place to place a stop loss is marginally below the base of wave two. If your analysis and wave count are correct, then the following reaction of this market will be rapid and powerful motion of the above mentioned, through which you ought to move the stop close to the amounts you open the place so that you can not eliminate money. From there you are able to take whatever the market has given you through the third wave, or if you have patience to await the correction at the fourth tide and after that to make use of the new extreme of this fifth wave. This is strictly human and is a matter of the greed dose in all us. I exchange on this system. I would not recommend you to use it on very low time frames for example 5 minutes or 10 minutes charts, but I say again, this is strictly human. For me personally, this is the only methodology which permits me to open positions with less than 10 percent risk. And if someone tells you that you're able to exchange the market with 0% risk, do not consider him, that can not be done. The abstract instance given here is to get an uptrend, as I think that it is a lot easier to digest. The very same rules apply to a bearish trend. Maybe this description appears to be too simple, especially for people who have spent any time in gambling. I wouldn't like to break your excitement, but trust me, it appears simple and simple, but to conceal your emotions and also to take part in such a whirl, as the market is, even following rules is very tough.

  3. #3
    Market analysis is the basis of wining or losing on a market. Nevertheless, the real adventure, the real game is trading or investing on it. And what I find quite fascinating is that there are as many and various trading egies, since the number of people available on the market. Everybody has his own trading system or methodology, based on his temperament and will to risk. Now, I prefer to use a combination of pure technical analysis, Elliott wave Theory and intermarket analysis, implementing those three in my trading platform I call THE THIRD WAVE TRADER. Today I want to reveal a concise log of two of my recent EURUSD trades. That major currency pair is exactly what I exchange mostly.

    (pic 1)

    Once we saw the sharp fall from 1.4286 to 1.3445 I was a little bit confused, since I expected to see a clearly spontaneous pattern. I actually went to the market at that time. After the down movement was completed for that time, it had rather a choppy structure, which made me believe that it's possible to be counted as wave I or a. We then saw the correction to 1.3785 and I began to pay more attention to the market and to be more specific - to an eventual breakthrough of the prior base (1.3445). That's what THE THIRD WAVE TRADER claims to be the confirmation (or as some people today call it - the sign ). After the market confirmed there is wave iii or c in activity I opened my short position and set my stop loss right above 1.3785. As the market continued to fall that I moved my stop reduction from the major resistance levels my Elliott wave count revealed.

    (pic 2)

    Obviously my analysis was wrong at a time and the market hit my stop in 1.3198, returning me a profit of 250 pips. Some will say that I overlooked much more pips with that risk management, but I'll say in my defense it is part of my own trading plogy. Does not matter how strange this may sound for you, but I prefer to allow the market shut my trades. I rarely close positions manually.

    (pic 3)

    But here is the thing. After my position was closed from the market, I transferred at a 30 minutes chart and saw some spontaneous pattern, which I believed could be the beginning of an A-B-C pattern, or even renewed short term bull market. After the market supported that wave iii or c is ahead, I opened a lengthy trade. As the market climbed higher in a few hours, I moved my stop to a level that I couldn't lose money and even take some small profits. And I waited.

    (pic 4)

    After a short sideways price action, the market exploded and this time I closed my position manually, since I had my doubts if this will last, or maybe. So I included the following 180 pips in that day. Hence the sum of my two trades was 430 pips, for three days. But that is not what's really so worthy. The key sentence here that I want to underline is - serenity while you trade. This assurance and easiness is exactly what THE THIRD WAVE TRADER gives. And at this time, I turn on EURUSD, cause the market seems to be preparing new surprises for us.

  4. #4
    A number of the best trading opportunities come when a market bottom is anticipated. Based upon the timeframe you can decide what kind of risk management you may utilize. Determine your goal, your stop loss dimension, and go for a few profits. That is exactly our case here. On January 10 EURUSD made an intraday bottom, followed by a pullback. After sawing the low, I tuned myself up for an upside impulsive pattern, that was suppose to get me ready for a potential intraday trading prospect. The I saw something that looked just like a top diagonal, then a choppy correction, followed by a breakthrough of their prior high.

    (pic 1)

    This has been sufficient for me to become convinced in my puzzle analysis and also in my THIRD WAVE TRADER methodology. I went long, using a stop loss in the prior bottom. The market started to climb, with appropriate sideways corrections. I was looking for a good place in the RSI to affirm that the intraday trend begins to exhaust.

    (pic 2)

    And there is the moment I decided to take my profit. It all happened in just 1 day. A few hours actually. What's more interesting is that in the present time of opening my position I risked 40 pips, however my profit was 347 pips. That is one of those principles I have in my personal trading. Never begin a commerce, which has larger risk than goal.

  5. #5
    The majority of traders are now talking about the Japanese yen and the powerful advantage that it takes against the US Dollar. Lots of volatility on the market in the directions is what brings traders, particularly those who prefer to trade at the small time frames.

    Basically we suggest the market is moving below the historical bottom (79.50), to complete wave V. Throughout that autumn I would like to see a few RSI divergence at the reduced time frames. To put it differently, there's a large reversal gathering sentiment. But before seing that change, the market should exhaust completely. Ignoring today's continuing excitement about USDJPY, I wouldn't advise any investor to have a long term short position on USDJPY. Signs of reversal will come at a moment. Be patient and the market will reward you with good opportunities.

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