1 trade per pair per year
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Thread: 1 trade per pair per year

  1. #1
    I chose to begin this journal to stick to a demo trading effort I am in right now.

    This was started at the beginning of 2011, and the first 2 weeks' results are encouraging, so it tempted me to go public with it. When it does work out good, it might provide some interesting approach to fellow traders, so it would be useful to have a record of it. If it does not work out, it might nevertheless be a good record as something to prevent . I might then change the title of this thread to Forget about

    The main idea is to hold a basket of transactions throughout the whole year and shut them in the end (December 31, 2011). The question of course is in that basket.

    I noticed in the end of this past year the following interesting items:AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF and JPY were at/near all time or multi-year drops against the USD EUR and GBP were 1000's of pips away from their all-time drops against the USD Almost all of the crosses between one pair of the first group and one pair of the second group were also at/near all time or multi-year drops against the EUR or the GBP Observation (3) above resembles a direct consequence of observations (1) and (2) so you could say, what's the big deal?

    Well, this did lead me to conceive a potential trading egy which would provide a very good risk/reward for a yearly trade basket. I would specify this as a set of transactions with equivalent lots taken at the beginning of the year and closed in the end of the year.

    Why would I be searching for something like that? Well, simply to minimise involvement, stress, anxiety and any other emotion or thing that affects daytrading. I operate my (small) live account with an intraday egy that I am trying to perfect, however I usually find it extremely demanding in my plogical fuel.

    And having heard a million times that bigger timeframes give stronger signs, '' I thought to give it a go with the yearly one. You will find quite a few threads that operate on the Daily, Weekly and Monthly timeframes, so I wanted to bring some new perspective, if I can.

    In order to provide credits where due, I took my long-term trade inspiration from some areas here inforexsoutheast.asiaand more specifically:The Building a equity milllipede thread, and specifically the posts of PipEasy - https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/cryp...fic-order.html The No free lunch (DIBS)... thread, and specifically the posts of Peter Crowns - https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/cryp...r-host-ea.html Some posts by TheRealThing, both inforexsoutheast.asiaand his website - https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/fore...ss-trader.html On January 16, my demo account in Oanda where I am trying this, is currently up 50 percent from the beginning of the year, with a 3% initial drawdown for the moment. I have to acknowledge the leverage I used is over the top, and I would be much safer trading 1/10th the sum that I have now, so the more conservative outcome is a 5% account increase inthe first two months. But THIS IS A DEMO, so I do not mind the final result.

    The transactions taken on December 31st 2010 were:Group 1: Short EURUSD,GBPUSD,AUDUSD,NZDUSD and Long USDJPY,USDCHF,USDCAD Group two: Long EURAUD,EURCAD,EURCHF,EURJPY,EURNZD Group3: Long GBPAUD,GBPCAD,GBPCHF,GBPJPY,GBPNZD Group 4: Short AUDCAD Group 1 is clearly a multi-pair USD long. The logic behind it is that since USD is at this multi-year low point against 5 of the 7 most traded other currencies (AUD,CAD,CHF,JPY and NZD), this season should bring at least some retrace of the last few years' moves. In terms of the EUR and GBP, there is not anything fundamentally that makes them strong against the dollar, so I would feel that when the dollar will really appreciate generally, EUR and GBP will accompany this trend and fall against it.

    Group 2 basically says that since the dollar appreciates through 2011, there is probably more upside contrary to the 5 pairs cited above (AUD,CAD,CHF,JPY and NZD) than against the Euro, that has already been hit hard in the last 3 years. Add to that some very interesting bottom-side wicks on a YEARLY EURUSD chart for 2008, 2009 and 2010. Overall, I expect the EUR to depreciate LESS from the dollar in comparison to all those 5 currencies.

    Group 3 is a similar situation for the GBP. Again, the pound has already suffered a huge decrease in 2008, and there are a number of nice bottom-side wicks in the Annual GBPUSD chart for 2009 and 2010. So I expect the GBP to depreciate LESS from the dollar in comparison to all those 5 currencies over.

    Group 4 is the misfit trade, I might add to this group during the year when I see something good developing in almost any additional pair. I just found that AUDCAD was also at its own all time highs, and only believed to give it a try shorting and see how it goes.

    Before you feel the logic of selling at the top and buying in the base is flawed, because nobody knows if the market will keep on climbing or falling respectively, allow me to say that I've been burned more than enough times trying to pick tops and bottoms in M5,M15 and H1 charts, and you probably know what I am talking about. But at a Annual chart??? I am thinking this should make a difference. There are also a number of positive things about trying a basket of transactions such as the one I explained which, in my opinion at least, minimize the risks involved.

    I shall post more details following, also charts and regular account upgrades.

    Should you see me stop submitting, you will be aware that the demo account has been blown to ash . Feel free to embarass me farther on such an occasion.

    Happy trading to all,
    Christos

  2. #2
    This will be a yearly trade, so we're done looking at charts . I saw the formations on the last day of 2010, the idea to trade up this popped and some more logic behind it. I will look at these charts again on New Years Eve .

    I split the possible results in 2 main situationsollar appreciates through 2011 Dollar depreciates through 2011
    In case USD goes up, then my Group 1 transactions will do very excellent. I really do hope that the overstretched pairs (AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF and USDJPY) will do much better than EURUSD and GBPUSD shorts in this circumstance, as the bigger you go, the harder the fall. Which means essentially that my Group 2 and Group 3 transactions may also fare well since EUR and GBP will relatively rise against their cross currencies.

    In case USD goes down (which seems to be occurring now as an example), then Group 1 may not do very well (to say the least!!!) . However, I do hope that there will not be aggresive dollar selling against the 5 overstretched currencies, although the EUR and GBP might have significant upside against the USD. Meaning that my Group 2 and Group 3 pairs would take up to positive pips because the EUR and GBP relatively rise against their cross currencies.

    Worst scenario mix for this basket of transactions, so much as I can imagine: USD goes down, and EUR and GBP go down too, with worldwide funds going to JPY,CHF,AUD,NZD,or CAD or a combination of these as the new-found Safe Havens. That to me at least looks like a very distant possibility, and may take world-changing events until it materializes as a situation.

    Overall, the basket described in post 1 resembles a very promising trade mix for 2011. Let us see how it performs...

  3. #3
    Please remember this is a demo, nothing to do with real cash!!!

    I took some screenshots of my OANDA account this morning, at which I am trying out this. I would very much wish to put this on myfxbook, however they recently announced that they are stopping support for OANDA for their own motives, so I suppose I will have to find another method to present the results simpler.





    Some explanations follow:

    The demo account began using 100,000 USD. Just a tiny evaluation transaction led to the realized loss of -114.00 USD so dismiss it. No other trades were taken apart from these active in the second screenshot.

    Trades were shot on December 31st (in the day ). The exception is EURCAD and GBPCAD. I added those trades on Wednesday, January 5, after seeing that they follow the exact same pattern as the other crosses (had overlooked it initially).

    Initial stop loss is 1000 pips and take profit is 5000 pips. All these are tentative but at the moment I intend to keep them in position until the end. What is that for a tight SL . Typical ranges for yearly candles are between 1k and 2k pips so I think I am safe.

    My sole trade at risk at the present time might be the GBPUSD, already 500 pips from the red, but the GBP crosses more than make up for it. In the event the GU gets stopped out, I suppose the crosses will be worth over a few 1000's of pips.

    You will promptly observe that I've already dropped around 1,800.00 USD that's the interest charges. So far, this really is about -100.00$ daily in this demo. Which, for 18 standard lots at play, means around -0.6 pips every day. That is much less than that I expect to create. Daily!!!

    The trades screenshot is sorted by pip gain/loss. This makes it easy to detect things, for example:

    1. GBPUSD is at the bottom (largest reduction ) but look at all the GBP crosses at the very best (biggest wins( and 4 of these ). This plays out just like what I explained in my second situation in the preceding post.

    2. EURUSD is level more or less for the year, but the EUR crosses are mostly doing considerably better. Again confirms my ideas in the preceding post.

    3. The trades with USD pairs will also be fairly horizontal total ( 31 pips sum) but also the EUR and GBP crosse overperform this.

    Because I took all these shots (8 hours ago), the account is back to 51K unrealized profit. Why, since the EUR and GBP rallied strongly and the dollar fell across the board, but mostly against those two, according to my initial ideas on this.

    I will give some updates daily or weekly at the most, particularly after large moves in any currency, since I find this intriguing. Well, let me acknowledge, if the demo was losing money, I would not be THAT interested.

    I hope this provides some helpful food for thought to anyone involved in loooong-term trading. I would happily welcome comments or additional ideas on this, if it is of interest for you.

  4. #4
    So far so good.

    The week of 17/1/2011 to 21/1/2011 started with the account at 5,200 pips and ended at 6,800 pips.

    Against the dollar:

    GBP and EUR both moved strongly higher this past week.

    NZD went down (that makes up most of the profits for the week).

    AUD was a weekly inverted hammer marginally down for the week.

    CAD was down by around 50 pips.

    JPY and CHF went up by less than 60 pips.

    Overall, this led in the majority of trades (EUR and GBP crosses mostly ) producing more positive pips for the week, except for the EURUSD and GBPUSD shorts.

    For the coming week, I really do anticipate more pip increases.

    If EUR and GBP fall against the USD (there are FOMC statements and US GDP to be announced) then I expect also the remainder of the gang to collapse much more, thereby the crosses of EUR and GBP will appreciate.

    In the event EUR and GBP keep their strong up movement, I anticipate the other currencies will move up against the USD with less force, thereby the crosses will again move higher.

    Let us see what happens.

    Account Summary and Trades summary on January 22 are below.


  5. #5
    I didn't have much time to post or trade the previous 2 weeks, no matter how the evaluation basket of trades is still going strong. It lost about 2,000 pips in the meantime, but it is up 4,735 pips in total since the beginning of the year.

    Dividing the collections of trades, I see the GBP crosses' long trades lost about 400 pips in these fourteen days, the EUR crosses lost about 900 pips and the Dollar longs lost about 600 pips.

    I'd take this as a retracement (over all of the basket), as the 6,800 pips it made in the fist 20 days was likely too much too soon.

    I shall keep watching it and provide further updates as the year moves on.

    Trades and account status on Sunday, February 6 2011 below.



  6. #6
    Interesting

    keep it up im listening

  7. #7
    So, here are a couple yearly charts that demone what I explained in article 1. They're the current yearly charts for EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, EURCAD (an illuion cross of the Euro) and AUDCAD (the misfit transaction ).










    for each chart, the last bar is the currently forming pub of 2011.

    The charts for NZDUSD is much like the AUDUSD, as are the charts for USDJPY,USDCHF and USDCAD (in reverse), all revealing extreme historical dollar weakness against these currencies.

    Compared to this intense dollar weakness, the EURUSD and GBPUSD have plenty of distance (a few 1000's pips) both to the upper and the lower limit of the charts.

    The chart for EURCAD above is indiive of what occurs also in EURJPY,EURCHF,EURAUD and EURNZD. The Euro is at pre-determined lows against these currencies.

    Same things as for its EUR crosses apply for its GBP crosses (GBPAUD,GBPCAD,GBPCHF,GBPJPY,GBPNZD).

    In order to create these charts, I used the Period converter out of https://www.forexsoutheast.asia/cryp...fferently.html Mind you, the instructions are wrong, and I needed to work it out. Didn't really work that good for all of the pairs mentioned, but the concept should be obvious without revealing all of the charts.

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