US GDP - Oct 27
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Thread: US GDP - Oct 27

  1. #1
    I had been asleep as soon as the rumor of a lower GDP of 1.8% went round the ground. It shorted the USD and GBPUSD went up from 1.8880s to 1.8920s.

    In my experience serves me, this GDP report is an initial report covering July, August and September data. . ? If so that this will cause volatility like it did last July's GDP report.

    Allow Me to examine the pieces of the puzzle looking at a few data:

    Retail Sales (said to be 70 percent of GDP)
    Jul 1.4
    Aug 0.2
    Sep -0.4

    Durable Goods
    Jul: -2.4
    Aug -0.5
    Sep 7.8 (large boeing order)

    CPI
    Jul 0.2
    Aug 0.2
    Sep 0.2

    Housing Data is a little skewed. Home sales may be a bit up but the price is down.

    Appears like GDP is really falling.

  2. #2
    I am holding on a small GBP/USD 4 mini lots long positionfor pleasure.
    SL @ 1.8885 with 20 pip course, TP @ 1.8950 just below resistance region between 8950/60.
    I would love to find out what will occur during the asian session.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I had been asleep as soon as the rumor of a decrease GDP of 1.8% went around the ground. It shorted the USD and GBPUSD went up from 1.8880s to 1.8920s.

    If my experience serves me right, this GDP report is a first report covering July, August and September data. . ? If so this will cause volatility like it did last July's GDP report.

    Allow Me to analyze the pieces of the puzzle looking at some data:

    Retail Revenue (said to be 70% of GDP)
    Jul 1.4
    Aug 0.2
    Sep -0.4

    Durable Goods
    Jul: -2.4
    Aug -0.5
    Sep 7.8 (big boeing order)

    CPI
    Jul 0.2
    Aug 0.2
    Sep 0.2

    Housing Data is a little skewed. Home sales could be a little up but the price is down.

    Seems like GDP is really falling.
    Hi ,

    where did you see this was a rumor ?
    Thanks

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    Hi ,

    where did you find that this was a rumor ?
    Thanks
    Its out of FXCM's Squawk Box

    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    [IFR Forex Watch] [GBP/USD OUTLOOK]

    [19:43 GMT October 26] Cable soared today, clearing 1.8865 recent range shirts early in US trade this afternoon rather than return. The lack of urgency in the FOMC on inflation yesterday gave the market carte-blanch weaken the USD and to lower US returns. Weak US information added to the bearish USD mood as did the upbeat comments this morning from PM-apparent Brown. Greenspan weighed in on a change toward the EUR and off hurting the greenback as well. 1.8900 barriers but up a struggle but eventually yielded. Cable shot to 1.8926 before stalling and consolidating above 1.8900. US GDP prospects were downgraded now ahead of tomorrows report. 2.2% is that the consensus estimate, but talk of 1.8% made the rounds throughout the US afternoon. The market is extremely bearish right now, suggesting the money in cable has been made. 1.8865 is key support on drops near-term; small trailing stops are eyed below that degree. 1.8855/65 is near-term resistance above 1.8925. We'd not be surprised to hear talk about 1.8950 barriers along the way. /rs
    Quote Originally Posted by ;
    I'm holding on a small GBP/USD 4 miniature lots long position, only for fun.
    SL @ 1.8885 with 20 pip course, TP @ 1.8950 just below resistance area between 8950/60.
    I would like to see what's going to occur during the oriental session.
    I moved long myself 5 minis @ 1.8905 and two miniature @ 1.8895 (x2 accounts)... TP @ 1.8930 only... but will change this as I believe the market. If the market is very bearish USD, I'd up the TP to 1.8950. . . GBPUSD in 1.89s is very uncomfortably high and may soon drop back to 1.86

  5. #5
    I have a sneaking suspicion we see numbers that were lower lower then consensus. Even the Fed annouced it expected growth to be moderate-I'm figuring that they know what these numbers look like; they're not gonna announce moderate growth and have these numbers coming out showing anything else on Friday.

    Nice breakdown on the GDP amount BK...

  6. #6
    Could be buy the rumor sell the ...

  7. #7
    2AM EST..

    GBPUSD has been restricted to trading most of Asia morning session below 1.8820s.

    Last Friday UK GDP, it had been limtied also.

  8. #8
    With breaking news at 8.30 . .wonder how it'll influence gdpusd?

  9. #9
    Jap FinMins' made a comment about JPY.

    EURJPY was seen selling and with it, EURUSD dropped, GBPUSD fell...




    .
    .
    .
    Crap JPY is pulling down everybody!

  10. #10
    Does anyone have any forecast of what will occur in the market for this one?

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