Thread: AUD - next in line for a kick in the groin

I believe you have me wrong.

I was referring to the new candle...(big red one)
It broke and closed below the previous day's low, so thats technically a breakout, using some type of downside bias.

I am only stating, that for this particular candle (big red one) to prove the presence of a valid downward momentum, retracements (bullish candles) for the next few bars shouldn't exceed 50% of the bearish candle (big red one).

Though the analysis I originally posted to begin this thread was incorrect by a timing perspective (although it was never intended to be a timing remark) the impact is beginning to be felt, as was seen yesterday. To re-iterate:

AUD would be the next casualty should money market spreads widen again. This was the situation yesterday, seeing AUD/USD falling by 1.4 percent. Australian mortgage vulnerable banks have a reduced deposit to strength ratio compared to Northern Rock (that has borrowed GBP22.8bln in the BOE) and are mainly financed by tapping overseas capital markets.

Thus AUD is high in the schedule of currencies to drop should equity markets remain under pressure that is appearing more likely.

Despite Dave's earlier analysis, there's some significant groin kicking happening now. I have no idea why the sudden sale in the H4, but dear god 200 pips on a AUDUSD candle? In a company bull market? The ozzies should be buying . . America

And to anybody long AUDJPY over the weekend: Please PM me to get therapist tips and/or herbal ne guie.

AUD may be sensitive to the unrest in Tibet.

Originally Posted by ;

Despite Dave's previous analysis, there's some significant groin kicking happening today. I have no idea why the sale in the previous H4, but dear god 200 pips on a single AUDUSD candle? In a firm bull market? The ozzies must be buying . . America

And to anybody long AUDJPY over the weekend: please PM me to get therapist tips or herbal mediion advice.

Oh and to be eligible the reason for the article - I feel this fairly violent double shirt will result in some air being dropped on the pair for the time being. Based upon New York's reaction once it opens in a couple of hours, I say there's space for 300 pips south. You didn't hear me say it.

Originally Posted by ;

AUD may be sensitive to the unrest in Tibet.

Really? My geography sucks but I thought that was a continent? Not that a small detail like that would keep investors back of course

Originally Posted by ;

Really? My geography sucks but I believed that was a continent that is different? Not that a small detail like that will keep investors back of course

China is among Australia's main trading partners. Since AUD strength was tied to some extent into the export of raw materials to feed Chinese industry, I can see unrest in China (or at least what China considers to become China) to have some negative impact on AUD. Of course, this is pure speculation on my part and might have nothing whatsoever to do with the huge move... Just an idea.

Originally Posted by ;

China is among Australia's most important trading partners. Since AUD strength was tied to some extent to the export of raw materials to nourish Chinese sector, I will see unrest in China (or at least what China considers to become China) to have some negative effect on AUD. Of course, that is pure speculation on my part and may have nothing at all to do with the big move... Just a thought.

I do not think your speculation is less or worse founded than that of the traders who may have caused the movement in the investment banks. You're merely speculating about their speculation/ trying to comprehend what it was. Sounds reasonable to me. China is a major trading partner with everyone, it soundssigh*

I really do believe there was a 140 pip 5M candle indeed.

EURAUD has done me rather well, too, for a small scalp

1800 pips down, up, 1100 up.

Well well well.
230 days, 7600 pips oscillated. Now that woulda been a pair to range trade at the boundaries